Zenyatta-Outstanding

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

Ok.  Next time you want to bet Zardana against decent horses, give me a ping.  I will give you 15% over the closing price.

Now, you are calling the \"one and done\" synthetic to dirt thing \"voodoo\"?  It wasn\'t my theory, it was yours.  What has changed?

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- please. That\'s not the voodoo. The voodoo is the idea that if a horse runs a neg 1 getting 2+ points from a horse that has never run a neg 3, the horse spotting weight will somehow win because of \"class\" or some other intangible. That same thinking will say that no matter how much weight Z spotted the second finisher it wouldn\'t have made any difference.

RA is not a decent horse?

[jimbo66]

Ok TGJB.  Got your voodoo reference.

It took me a year to get comfortable with your \"one and done\" theory with the synthetic horses making a big \"jump up\" first time dirt and then fizzling thereafter.

Now, I finally buy in and you are taking me to task for it.  Of course, Rachel is a fantastic horse that Zardana beat.  Zardana beat her in her big jump up race.  I don\'t think Zardana will ever race a big figure again.  So, I don\'t expect her to ever beat a good horse (in the future).  So, for me, 6-1 against Zenyatta and St. Trinian\'s wasn\'t value.  You called it 25% for her to run that figure again.  I think it is more like 5%, but I don\'t have the database to prove it.  I thought you or somebody did a study on these first time dirt \"move ups\" and posted it somewhere in the forum.  I can\'t find it, but my memory, although sometimes faulty, thinks the number is significantly less than 25% that they run the number again.

That\'s all.

[TGJB]

Jimbo, I would never take you to task.

[smalltimer]

The idea that weight \"brings them all together\" has been bogus since its inception. One pound \"too much\" stops any horse. Great champions have been beaten by simply adding one more pound on top of their previous big weighted effort.    

We already know Z can \"effectively\" carry 129#, and we now know Rachel can \"effectively\" carry 124#.
We just don\'t know if Z can carry 130# and Rachel can carry 125#\'s.  

I don\'t think Rachel has any difficulty or runs any slower carrying 122# than she does carrying 120#.  I don\'t think she runs any faster carrying 120# than when she carries 122#.  They can only go so far, so fast, given the size of these animals.

When Zardana upset Rachel at 8.5 furlongs, she was getting 2#, then in the rematch and the predictable \"bounce of the year\" she was getting 4#.  
Against Zenyatta yesterday, Zardana had a weight concession of 11#\'s.  It didn\'t allow her to spring the upset, but it kept her in the hunt for a long time.

In Rachel\'s race Saturday, the really good news is she showed she could carry 124#, but was only spotting an average of 9# per animal.  Z\'s race showed she was spotting an average of 14# to each horse.  Factor being as they move on, those weight concessions could be the same, but a lot better group of horses to try to beat.  Let\'s face it, there were a couple of cupcakes in each race.  

If both Rachel and Zenyatta showed up at Saratoga and were high weighted, say 126# each, they could each be giving some real solid weight away to some awfully good animals.  

I do think the additional weight plays into the way that Rachel runs.  I think it, at least visually, affects her explosiveness and her athleticism.  I don\'t think she can take on another 5#\'s and not be compromised. In fact, I think if Rachel and Z were both weighted at 129#\'s, Zenyatta runs past her in the last 1/8th of a mile, because I don\'t think, (could be wrong) that Rachel looks the type to pack that really BIG weight.  In my opinion, 124# is only \"decent\" weight for a horse the caliber of Rachel....But, she proved she could effectively carry it, so I think that\'s BIG.  129# is a completely different level of weight.  Z is simply the more physical, longer striding animal with the physical size to carry it a long ways and not have it stop her, but it does slow her down, its clear it takes her \"longer\" to get cranked up because of the stage of the race when Mike\'s asking her.  As someone on here suggested they run with Z packing 130# and Rachel 126#, I think you\'re talking a real crap shoot.  I think its possible they both get beat in that scenario, assuming its a field with a couple of other top notch animals.  
I\'m convinced there\'s an assigned weight (within reason) that will stop either of them. My concern lies with them carry big, big weight.  They\'re both such great champions, with such huge hearts and desires to win, it sometimes causes an injury, or just knocks them out.      
If Rachel continues to move forward, the good news is she would pack 123# if she runs in the Classic, good news, she proved she could carry it at least for 9f.
No offense intended here.  We\'re all in agreement these are 2 very special race horses.  Z pulling it out late, Rachel beginning to look like her old self.  Let\'s hope things work out and they can finally meet.  
Lastly, it just doesn\'t look like Rachel\'s having fun out there.

[Leamas57]

ST lost a shoe in that race, btw...

http://drf.com/news/article/113910.html

Leamas

[sekrah]

What race were you watching?!?!

[Rich Curtis]

Smalltimer wrote:

\"Great champions have been beaten by simply adding one more pound on top of their previous big weighted effort.\"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

I\'m disappointed that JB didn\'t respond to your post by quoting Francisco d\'Anconia of \"Atlas Shrugged.\"

[smalltimer]

I\'m not all edumacated, but I\'d wager .10 cents that JB hasn\'t even heard of Francisco d\'Anconia.

[Rich Curtis]

Don\'t buy JB\'s NYC streetkid philistine shtick. I\'ll take the bet. After yesterday, I need the dime.

[TGJB]

Small-- one of the problems with your posts (like that one) is that you don\'t give people credit for actually KNOWING what they are talking about, as opposed to guessing. Read that book in 3 days when I was 15. The first time. As Curtis knew, hence his post.

There are so many problems with your weight post that I\'m unwilling to take the time to disentangle it, and only someone who is only familiar with handicapping in the US could ever have considered making it. Take a look at the weights at Ascot the next few days.

[Silver Charm]

PDub you and I are finally on the same page.

She probably was open to some criticsm when she had only run say 10 times. Almost never left Calif, stayed primarily on one surface that was not being really accepted by the fans.

But the consistent delivered efforts 17 consecutive times, BC Classic over colts and the 129 yesterday takes her to the stratospheric levels. She HAS EARNED THE RESPECT NOW!!

The problem with \"numbers guys\" is they are properly conditioned to believe their numbers are always the right way to play. However they will also try and tell you Ghostzapper was better than Secretariat, Man O\'War or Dr Fager because the numbers say so. But Ghostzapper ran an almost as protected campaign of Zenyatta with just faster figs. So he is the greatest??

Zenyatta\'s accomplishments can not be quantified other than she did what they asked her to do all 17 times she has run....

[nyc1347]

GZ ran against horses who were also running as fast as he was!  Pleasantly Perfect, St Liam, Roses in May and Azeri as competition is MUCH better than any other horse has run in history and he was able to sustain that level of running through needed timing between races.  Zenyatta has been spotted accordingly in a similar way but has spotted weight to others.. shes racing against garbage horses overall compared to what GZ did.  Theres def NO comparison whatsoever and overall i would say GZ is the best horse of all time... i mean he beat horses running negative 3s to 6s range!

[sekrah]

Agreed.   Zenyatta has been racing against complete and total garbage next to GZ.  Beat someone good on dirt, I\'ll be impressed.  Until then, John Shirreffs carefully orchestrated campaign to keep the horse unbeaten commands zero respect from me.

LOL at these Zenyatta-humping threads everytime she knocks over a new set of tomato cans on a trash surface.  As if beating the latest pigs is worth anymore than the last group of pigs she beat.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Agreed.   Zenyatta has been racing against
> complete and total garbage next to GZ.  Beat
> someone good on dirt, I\'ll be impressed.  Until
> then, John Shirreffs carefully orchestrated
> campaign to keep the horse unbeaten commands zero
> respect from me.
>
> LOL at these Zenyatta-humping threads everytime
> she knocks over a new set of tomato cans on a
> trash surface.  As if beating the latest pigs is
> worth anymore than the last group of pigs she
> beat.

Were you beat up by an oversized girl when you were a little boy??

Sheesh, talk about one jaded guy.

Anybody referring to these horses as pigs, garbage, and tomato cans doesn\'t deserve to enjoy the accomplishments anyway.

Commands zero respect from you. Guess what?? Nobody cares what you think pal. You clearly have no respect for the horses or the game.

JB, do we really need this kind of disrespectful crap around here?? Its as disrespectful as calling somebody an idiot, which when I used that term almost got me a vacation from the board.

Its one thing to not be a fan or not be impressed. The characterizations this guy throws around really serve no purpose.