Anatomy Of An Attempted Betting Coup.

[Mall]

With huge pools & plenty of tourist money, the undercard is the perfect setting for a betting coup, & such efforts have a tradition every bit as long & storied as the Derby itself. There is an undeniable attraction to being part of one, all the more so if it is designed to come in \"over the top\", as holdem players say, of a less sophisticated effort. That wasn\'t something we had to worry about yesterday. Nor did our attempt involve any skirting of the rules, & not just because the players had all been around far too long to risk their reputations to cash a bet. Some of you may recall the days when the undercard was mostly clming races & D Romans\'(if memory serves)ridiculous defense that the big crowd & confusion caused him to saddle the wrong horse, who just happened to be dead fit & win the race. As I see it, those interested in that kind of skullduggery lack what Russians sometimes call \"poetry of the soul.\"

Approx a yr ago I offered the observation here that despite a fair amt of work, understanding & interpreting works was still the weakest part of my game. I suggested a discussion on the Bd, but there were no takers, save a call & private email from the So Fla poster who goes by the name of Catlin, which is how he ended up in the middle of things. My efforts to improve my understanding of works resulted, by last April, in a close relationship with a \"private\" clocker who, suffice it to say, is a former trainer who knows how to handicap & is a shrewd observer of both horses & humans. The scores we made in Ky mdn races last yr had me looking fwd to this yr\'s Kee/CD meets, & I was probably a little overconfident when Cherniasky, who had been compared to Fav Trick & who Court thought enough of to fly in from Ark to work, went to the post at 5-1 in a 4.5f sprint on 4/16. I didn\'t know he lost a shoe before the race, but I did see him hit the side of the gate at the break, outsprint & best an odds on Lukas horse, & take what appeared to be an unbeatable lead in late stretch, only to be beaten at the wire by a fst closing Limehouse. My comrade from So Fla & I had barely finished calculating the staggering pk3&4 sums that neck cost us when I started to hear rpts on El Sysco Kid, an impressive looking, unraced 2 yr old in the barn of the one & only Ernie Retamoza, who was seen galloping the horse himself,itself odd considering that Ernie is neither a young nor a small man. Things began to get interesting when the Kid had a gate work in \"company\" on 4/25. Not only were the reported times for the work slow, but there were 7 other horses in the gate, which I had never heard of & which in my estimation qualifies as a race. The Kid\'s internal fractions were extremely quick & the way he pulled away at the end fueled speculation that he might be entered in the 3 Chimneys, a stakes I learned that Ernie had won with a mdn some 14 yrs or so ago. We were looking for at least 50-1, especially after Bruin, a jockey who enjoyed some success at CD yrs ago but who is now at RD, was named to ride. The 2 scratches depressed the odds considerably, but all systems were go Sat am, so that all that was left was to decide on a betting strategy. Heckle had tied the track record in his debut & figured to be odds on, but we were hearing that his workmate & our nemesis Limehouse was at least equal to & might now be better, & that Korsakoff was going bkwards. I therefore decided to devote about 60% of my bankroll putting those 3 on top in exactas,tris & supers, with the remainder in pk3s&4s & the win pool. My buddy from So Fla decided not to be the race vertically, which is why he can now say that in 2 races Limehouse has cost him the equivalent of a new jaguar. As for me, I probably shouldn\'t complain about crushing a $350 exacta, but I can\'t help feeling that I\'ll go to my grave convinced that I missed the score of a lifetime by a nose because JB did not ride 1-2 Heckle all the way to the line to hold on for 3rd. My So Fla pal asked me to relate this tale, which he says is one for the grandkids. Perhaps, but what I keep wondering is why when it comes to bettors, the Racing Gods almost always seem to opt for the bittersweet intead of the happy ending in this most difficult of games.

[Tabitha]

I\'ve learned the hard way to be very careful about betting two year olds this time of year.  I don\'t trust off tracks at Keeneland and I put very little stock into the times and figures from them, especially at less than six furlongs. I figured Heckles race was counterfeit or if true a bounce to oblivion was possible, especially in consideration of the quick come back. He\'d only gone a flat 22 to get a two length lead and I knew that was on a track that carried him. You don\'t set track records on average surfaces. I figured his real speed was probably around 22:2 and figured switching over to Churchill he would have to dig deeper to get a 22 and that might not carry him to the front with winners on Churchills surface, contemplating that if headed he may cave, which is commonly the case with speedball 2 year olds. If he was exceptional I dont think you run a tough stablemate at him either. Don\'t you separate sluggers until the championship?

I keyed Limehouse as my winner. I liked his close, his post and final time of 52 for the previous race. I think it was second fastest behind Heckle\'s wet track 51 and I liked the additional sixteenth to be run on Derby day. I saw El Sysco Kid\'s lasix, nice work pattern and good last workout. It looked as good as Heckle had ever worked and I put him in underneath. I had P.Day\'s horse in my tri as well. 60% of my bet was to win on Limehouse.

If you get a coup again. I\'d suggest considering that the fields in these races are generally small. I found it\'s not worth the risk of losing to skip the \"All\" button, especially in third or fourth. These races are also risky cause other good ones will be entered many times. I had a really solid tip on a Crusader Sword once. Guess who he ran into in his first race? Holy Bull....lol

Strange things happen in these races.

Tabi

[Linda]

Two year old races are risky. You also cashed on the race because you are a brilliant handicapper. You got a tip once which didn\'t work out. The all button is there if you can\'t make a decision. Who\'s writing your material anyway? BTW, do you think it\'s possible that you completely missed the point of the post you were responding to?

[Tabitha]

Missed the point....nahhhhhhh. Linda just cause Mall used a phrase like \"poetry of the soul\" it doesn\'t elevate the story out of gambling.  lol

Perhaps you were thinking that the moral to Mall\'s story was that betting the horses will not bring ultimate happiness? If you were you didn\'t listen closely to the lengths Mall has gone to improve his \"game\", you don\'t know Mall and you forgot the perfecta score he hit in this artistic coup!

Nahhh, Malls only point was that he wanted it ALL!  He did\'t want to share a single dime in the pool with anyone else. I understand where he\'s coming from

I could share a little insight I have about the two year olds but it would kill my edge. Mall\'s a sharp guy, he don\'t need me to tell him how important the \"all\" button is in third or fourth with the babies, he just experienced it...lol

But Linda what makes you think I\'m NOT the best handicapper u ever corresponded with? The fact that I\'m a woman?  By the way shouldn\'t you be washing dishes or somethin?

lol

Tabi

[Catalin]

I take full responsibility for having screwed this one up.  I could have easily bet $10 triple keys with Limehouse and Heckle/El Sysco/All for 100 bucks that would have returned nearly $9K, but I figured why not swing for the fences.  Unfortunately, I blew two other big scores (and managed not to cash in on Funny Cide) when Patrol was strangled on the front end and spit the bit, and my key in the last leg of the big 3 went lame on the backstretch.  They say these things always happen in threes, so maybe I\'ve put the bad beats behind for me awhile.

If nothing else Mall and I have had a lot of fun and learned a great deal from each other over the past year...