Kentucky Derby by nyc1347

[nyc1347]

Looking at the current odds i have come up with a few things...  lets run em down...


1  -  Lookin at Lucky -   i have seen so many times horses run a top with baffert then an off number then back to a top.. i am expecting a top effort with LAL BUT not a new top and a top effort alone wouldnt be good enough here so i will pass from my betting perspective.

2 - Ice Box -  Nothing wrong with him other than odds.. to me the odds are way too low to even play and for all i know he can win but i will go against think THAT will not happen.

3 - nobles promise - my opinion on Np is similar to LAL where i expect a top effort BUT not a new top.  His top will put him in the mix but not in the winners circle.  I do have him in futures to win but looking at this race for PPs and for odds and what it is im being honest and dont think he is a key BUT a definite use for exotics SOMEWHERE.

4 - Super Saver -  to me the this horse has a nice line but is too slow.. the reason he is most likely taken so much money is because the public sees this as Pletchers fastest male horse and i am not buying it at all.. hes been great until that stretch and then just mediocre compared to the winner so i will pass to win but another to use in exotics.

5 -  Line of David -  I think he will get buried somewhere along the way and do not like.

6 -  Stately Victor -  out of my favorite horse of all time but is WAYYYY overbet imo i will pass.

7 - American Lion -  trickiest horse i see.. fastest coming in off the thoros and ran a new dirt top..  hes shown to need the lead on poly but what makes us think he cant rate on the dirt?  most likely NOT and according to his history he will need a lead to win and i do not like that as well as 3 weeks off of a new dirt top.. i will with no doubt toss.. genuinely doesnt make sense to play him.

8 - Deans Kitten - lol someone who is wealthy named Dean must have a kitten who made this ones odds go down.. u see that off track effort?  ewwwwww

9 - Make Music for Me -  i have to say this one is a definite use underneath in the exotics for me as he is going forward but I dont think he will win so exotic wagers i would use underneath.

10 -  Paddy O\' Prado -  looks pretty consistent to me and i would think he can run better than most of these.. i will say he has one of the best shots to win and i hate to admit it cause i really hate this horse lol  nothing wrong though everything is in line

11 -  Devil May Care -  has no reason not to run a top.. the odds are perfectly in line and her chances exceed that.  With other bet down ridiculously and faster horses higher odds THIS one sticks out as value due to the idea of us knowing that she should run with no problem.  I believe she will have blinkers too and it can only help running in such a big race so I will take a stand on the filly and say that everything is consistent with her chances based on analysis, odds, form, opinion, etc..  also will be stalking the fast pace so all systems are a go!

12 - Conveyance -  part of that speed and i cant see him holding on.. he melted last timei cant imagine him holding on for this distance whatsoever

13 - Jackson Bend -  expecting an even effort of sorts and this horse kinda reminds me of Birdstone where he forged forward towards his 2 yo top but didnt exceed it for several races in his 3 yo campaign..  im waiting for this one to show a slight improvement within the next couple of races and then an explosion but i do not think that explosion will happen this race..  MAYBE a new top but to me it wouldnt be big enough to win and with lose of ground a maybe horse for 4th.

14 - Mission Impazible -  looks like he will fire but who knows where he will be in this race..  think he can run a new top but dont think it will be good enough to win here... odds are good though

15 - Discreetly Mine -  will pass completely.. i did not like his last race and a toss in my eyes

16 - Awesome Act -  improved so much and would need another pretty big improvement to win.. stuck outside and with his style i do not like at all

17 - Dublin -  3 weeks off and i expect a bounce or off race..  hes def not getting 1w1w lol  so we can forget about that and to be blunt he has no balls going down the stretch.. il pass

18 - Backtalk -  remember that blazing workout at hawthorne.. howd that work for him?  Yawanna Twist beat him and that horse isnt even in here.. PASS

19 - Homeboykris - 18th place sounds about right

20 - Sidneys Candy -  i expect this one to run his heart out but geeeeez its goin to be toooo much once he hits the stretch.. im expecting a faded tiring effort and for that i will toss


overall -   The filly is my pick.  DMC is the ONLY horse who i totally expect to run within herself no problem and fits just right with all the garbage variables that we are presented.  I asked myself after everything \"who WILL run their race?\" and the only one i had so much confidence in was DMC.

11 with 1, 3, 4, 9, 10 14.. i will wheel that up and down for a $50 exacta.. Il box them all for $10... $10 trifecta 11 on top.. $2 super 11 on top.  $5000 to show and add those horses in my pick 3 and 4 tickets!  Good luck to all!

[Lost Cause]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looking at the current odds i have come up with a
> few things...  lets run em down...
>
>
> 1  -  Lookin at Lucky -   i have seen so many
> times horses run a top with baffert then an off
> number then back to a top.. i am expecting a top
> effort with LAL BUT not a new top and a top effort
> alone wouldnt be good enough here so i will pass
> from my betting perspective.
>
> 2 - Ice Box -  Nothing wrong with him other than
> odds.. to me the odds are way too low to even play
> and for all i know he can win but i will go
> against think THAT will not happen.
>
> 3 - nobles promise - my opinion on Np is similar
> to LAL where i expect a top effort BUT not a new
> top.  His top will put him in the mix but not in
> the winners circle.  I do have him in futures to
> win but looking at this race for PPs and for odds
> and what it is im being honest and dont think he
> is a key BUT a definite use for exotics
> SOMEWHERE.
>
> 4 - Super Saver -  to me the this horse has a nice
> line but is too slow.. the reason he is most
> likely taken so much money is because the public
> sees this as Pletchers fastest male horse and i am
> not buying it at all.. hes been great until that
> stretch and then just mediocre compared to the
> winner so i will pass to win but another to use in
> exotics.
>
> 5 -  Line of David -  I think he will get buried
> somewhere along the way and do not like.
>
> 6 -  Stately Victor -  out of my favorite horse of
> all time but is WAYYYY overbet imo i will pass.
>
> 7 - American Lion -  trickiest horse i see..
> fastest coming in off the thoros and ran a new
> dirt top..  hes shown to need the lead on poly but
> what makes us think he cant rate on the dirt?
> most likely NOT and according to his history he
> will need a lead to win and i do not like that as
> well as 3 weeks off of a new dirt top.. i will
> with no doubt toss.. genuinely doesnt make sense
> to play him.
>
> 8 - Deans Kitten - lol someone who is wealthy
> named Dean must have a kitten who made this ones
> odds go down.. u see that off track effort?
> ewwwwww
>
> 9 - Make Music for Me -  i have to say this one is
> a definite use underneath in the exotics for me as
> he is going forward but I dont think he will win
> so exotic wagers i would use underneath.
>
> 10 -  Paddy O\' Prado -  looks pretty consistent to
> me and i would think he can run better than most
> of these.. i will say he has one of the best shots
> to win and i hate to admit it cause i really hate
> this horse lol  nothing wrong though everything is
> in line
>
> 11 -  Devil May Care -  has no reason not to run a
> top.. the odds are perfectly in line and her
> chances exceed that.  With other bet down
> ridiculously and faster horses higher odds THIS
> one sticks out as value due to the idea of us
> knowing that she should run with no problem.  I
> believe she will have blinkers too and it can only
> help running in such a big race so I will take a
> stand on the filly and say that everything is
> consistent with her chances based on analysis,
> odds, form, opinion, etc..  also will be stalking
> the fast pace so all systems are a go!
>
> 12 - Conveyance -  part of that speed and i cant
> see him holding on.. he melted last timei cant
> imagine him holding on for this distance
> whatsoever
>
> 13 - Jackson Bend -  expecting an even effort of
> sorts and this horse kinda reminds me of Birdstone
> where he forged forward towards his 2 yo top but
> didnt exceed it for several races in his 3 yo
> campaign..  im waiting for this one to show a
> slight improvement within the next couple of races
> and then an explosion but i do not think that
> explosion will happen this race..  MAYBE a new top
> but to me it wouldnt be big enough to win and with
> lose of ground a maybe horse for 4th.
>
> 14 - Mission Impazible -  looks like he will fire
> but who knows where he will be in this race..
> think he can run a new top but dont think it will
> be good enough to win here... odds are good
> though
>
> 15 - Discreetly Mine -  will pass completely.. i
> did not like his last race and a toss in my eyes
>
> 16 - Awesome Act -  improved so much and would
> need another pretty big improvement to win.. stuck
> outside and with his style i do not like at all
>
> 17 - Dublin -  3 weeks off and i expect a bounce
> or off race..  hes def not getting 1w1w lol  so we
> can forget about that and to be blunt he has no
> balls going down the stretch.. il pass
>
> 18 - Backtalk -  remember that blazing workout at
> hawthorne.. howd that work for him?  Yawanna Twist
> beat him and that horse isnt even in here.. PASS
>
> 19 - Homeboykris - 18th place sounds about right
>
> 20 - Sidneys Candy -  i expect this one to run his
> heart out but geeeeez its goin to be toooo much
> once he hits the stretch.. im expecting a faded
> tiring effort and for that i will toss
>
>
> overall -   The filly is my pick.  DMC is the ONLY
> horse who i totally expect to run within herself
> no problem and fits just right with all the
> garbage variables that we are presented.  I asked
> myself after everything \"who WILL run their race?\"
> and the only one i had so much confidence in was
> DMC.
>
> 11 with 1, 3, 4, 9, 10 14.. i will wheel that up
> and down for a $50 exacta.. Il box them all for
> $10... $10 trifecta 11 on top.. $2 super 11 on
> top.  $5000 to show and add those horses in my
> pick 3 and 4 tickets!  Good luck to all!

Very good analysis NYC

I\'ve got it pretty close to you..1,4,9,10,14,16..For all the reasons you mentioned above..I don\'t like the filly though..

[slewzapper]

I think Discreetly Mine is going to run much better than his odds suggest. The stagnant pattern last year to me was as good as a Mineshaft was going to do as a two year old. He has crept forward in each of his last two races after a troubled beginning, his last TG was better than the winner\'s despite working too long the week prior (trainer\'s comment)...working well, mom and dad were Grade 1 winners in the slop at a classic distance. Capable of forging ahead today given the trip and conditions at a price to be an exotics factor.

Good Luck.

[nyc1347]

You think he can come off the pace in this race?  Seems to me like he wants to be in front and with conveyance and SC gunning to the top with a couple others dont u think this is going to be really hard for him to get involved?   The racing form itself shows when he is off the pace he makes a move then flattens out/tires in the stretch for the most part..  they will go right by him in the stretch with that kind of run.. especially going a mile and a quarter.

[sekrah]

Agree on Discreetley Mine.  This horse bothers me.  I seen comments yesterday that Pletcher wasn\'t happy with how he trained heading into the La Derby, but he\'s much more happier this week.  He\'s certaintly eligible to explode sometime during his 3 yo campaign.

[jack72906]

Must use IMO...and BTW...he\'s the longest price on the board right now.

[SonicDonn]

It\'s ICE BOX for me.

Good luck to all.

[drbillym]

I also like Ice Boxe, but unfortunately so does Andy Beyer!