I think Ailalea is interesting in the Oaks

[covelj70]

It\'s a really tough call for me as to whether Blind Luck is going to run her number.  If she doesn\'t, I think the race is wide open.  If she does, she wins by a poll.

Let\'s just say for a second that she doesn\'t.

Amen H and Tidal Pool are the next fastest by a longshot.

However, Amen H drew terribly, may be distance challened and could have some lingering feet issues as evidenced by the turf breezes at GP for the last month.

Tidal Pool hasn\'t been training well and could be a victim of the race shapes in this one but she does get Calvin so I am scared of tossing her completely.

Quiet Temper looks interesting pattern wise and she drew well but she has lost some weight in the last few days which makes me nervous.

That brings me to Ailalea.  Her last was good and buried marking a pair of her 2 year old top which is fast.  She has license to move forward  in this race big time, gets Velasquez, has the right running stlye and will be 15-1.

I think I will make her my key for the race.

[MO]

Tidal Pool not training well? 112 3/5 on April 20. Have not heard anything negative about her.

[covelj70]

I have a clocker down there.  the time was fine, more how she did it and the gallop out and then the subsequent days galloping.

as always, take any of these on track observations for what they are worth.

I threw Speightstown out of the BC sprint because he \"wasn\'t training well\" leading up to that race and it cost me 50k after I had singled Singletary in a big pick 4 that year

I also threw out Musket Man last year becuase my guy said he wasn\'t training well and he ran huge.

That said, more often than not, these things are helpful on the margin.

If I love a horse and it\'s not training well per my guy, I just use it less heavy but if I am on the fence anyway, I will toss.

With Tidal Pool, I will use less heavy b/c I otherwise like alot.

[mjellish]

My guy said the excercise rider immediately pulled her up after the wire in her work and didn\'t let her gallop out.  Said her morning gallops since have looked average at best.

Tidal Pool that is.

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It\'s a really tough call for me as to whether
> Blind Luck is going to run her number.  If she
> doesn\'t, I think the race is wide open.  If she
> does, she wins by a poll.
>
> Let\'s just say for a second that she doesn\'t.
>
> Amen H and Tidal Pool are the next fastest by a
> longshot.
>
> However, Amen H drew terribly, may be distance
> challened and could have some lingering feet
> issues as evidenced by the turf breezes at GP for
> the last month.
>
> Tidal Pool hasn\'t been training well and could be
> a victim of the race shapes in this one but she
> does get Calvin so I am scared of tossing her
> completely.
>
> Quiet Temper looks interesting pattern wise and
> she drew well but she has lost some weight in the
> last few days which makes me nervous.
>
> That brings me to Ailalea.  Her last was good and
> buried marking a pair of her 2 year old top which
> is fast.  She has license to move forward  in this
> race big time, gets Velasquez, has the right
> running stlye and will be 15-1.
>
> I think I will make her my key for the race.



BL could pair here, maybe run a new top, and should save ground around the 1st turn. Traffic is an issue, certainly when it comes to the big favorite, but I\'ll take that risk when it comes to the Oaks/Derby doubles. Might be some value there somewhere.

Ailalea does look interesting. Nice sheet. I\'m handicapping a pretty good pace here, so Johnny V should be able to drop 5 to 7 off the pace and get a decent trip. I\'ll use her underneath.

[sekrah]

I heard alot of reports on the mediocrity of Musket Man\'s workouts last year.    

DRF\'s Story:

Mine That Bird: Far from the most-imposing-looking member of the field, but does gallop soundly enough. Flipped leads late during a decent but uninspiring five-furlong work last weekend. Looks overmatched here.

Musket Man: Had him under consideration as a definite longshot player when arriving in town but have less expectations at this point. Turned in a very uninspiring final Derby work in which he was under heavy pressure but could not get by his stablemate, a recent maiden winner who actually was stronger during the gallop-out. Must wonder if he has not fully recovered from those big efforts in Tampa and Illinois.

POTN did look good but right there\'s 67% of your trifecta out the window running uninspiring workouts in front of expert eyes.

Take every workout report with a big old grain of salt.