Jimbo-- Cal synth numbers, first results

[smalltimer]

My point was a typo.  I\'ll correct in the a.m.

[nyc1347]

they def look so much slower BUT they also look much more consistent.. it seems as if the better horses on poly are within 3-4 points as they forge forward and every small step forward is actually a much bigger deal than dirt.   A great example is Connemara this past weekend.   A 2 point improvement with everything in line set this horse off twice in a row (even though he had only 3 weeks from a bounce effort).   MORE rest is needed for those smaller jumps on poly even if it doesnt seem so.   A horse like Distorted Dave had no shot this past weekend with that 4 point jump and no rest.  Looks like a 3-4 point jump on poly seems to equal about 5-6 jump on dirt for comparison reasons.  A bounce is much more likely to happen on poly then dirt only moving forward a few points overall.   A horse like Distorted Dave had no shot this past weekend with that 4 point jump and no rest as an example.  Maybe something to consider in the future as horses in cali seem to be more consistent but show they need that rest.  

Maybe this is the biggest reason/secret formula for Zenyattas success?  not only is she ultra consistent BUT her timing is perfect going into a race.. The horses she runs against that move multiple steps forward just prior to racing her *new top horses last time out* seem to not run well against her as they react to their last efforts a overall while she has plenty of rest going in?   Breeders Cup comes to mind is this situation.. half of the horse bounced or regressed off top dirt to poly efforts or poly top (or close to it) to poly efforts.  Just an idea and possible explaination...


If we look at BC day.. if a horse moved forward in its last race this is the outcome...

On BC day 5 wound up going backwards
1 set a new top
and 1 paired.  


Overall:  *when going forward the race previous*
1 out of 12 ran a new top overall
1 out of 12 paired that effort
5 out of 12 horses regressed or bounced

*when going backwards the previous race*:

2 out of 12 ran top efforts
1 out of 12 regressed a point (an \"op\" race)
1 out of 12 bounce *but ran poly first time out*

Theres only one other horse in there which paired last out and actually went forward BC day.    Really interesting overall and the two that went back on BC day having gone back the race prior seem to have sort of sn excuse for not running as well.

[smalltimer]

Conveyance,   1M San Rafael 90, Conveyance,    1M Southwest 102.  +12
Cardiff Giant 1M San Rafael 88, Cardiff Giant, 1M Southwest 99.   +11

2 horses in a 5 horse field.  
2 different connections.  
Almost identical results.

LAL,       8.5f Cash Call 90,       LAL 8.5f Rebel, 102.       +12
Nob. Prom. 8.5f Cash Call 89, Nob. Prom.8.5f Rebel, 102        +13

2 different horses in 7 horse field.
2 different connections.
Almost identical results.

[miff]

Joe B,

Re the Wood and contrary to what was posted here.In dirt routes, the fastest figs are produced off of honest paces and occasionally modest paces, like the Wood.Fast/extreme paces in routes usually force speed horses to decelerate late.Closers have to \"spend\" more of their late run also.The \"whole number\" rarely comes up very fast.

The Wood, a perfect example,was very slow early very fast late making for a very fast \"whole number\" as TG/Beyer conclude.Some are getting confused by the fact that when paces are extremely slow,the horses just cannot make up the time,another story yet.

Re your comments about Sydney\'s Candy, it is also reasonable to wonder how Esky will fire late, if required to be on the chase of very fast derby pace.

Good Luck

Mike

[jimbo66]

Guys,

Real interesting stuff and certainly a bunch of people on the board have drilled into the details and came up with their own explanations and/or theories.

I hate to simplify things but I will.  Do you believe that Sidney\'s Candy\'s BEST race is slower than 5 or 6 of the fillies in the Kentucky Oaks?  Not what Sidney might do on dirt, but the performance of his best races this year being slower than 5 or 6 of the fillies?  So, he would be a longshot in the Oaks?

[TGJB]

Jim-- every apples to apples study we have done  (we have ones we use track to track to keep figures in line) and all anecdotal evidence that is more than cursory (like the Pacific Classic and all the horses I personally and others have sent TO California with great success) indicate the figures are accurate. The key component of the two studies I mentioned yesterday is the synth/synth one, which eliminates preference for surface.

When you only look at the ones that jump up on dirt you are getting a skewed view (the \"survivor\" thing). That\'s a function of surface, not geography.