First look at Oaks-Derby sheets

[sekrah]

Street Sense 9/2 and Smarty Jones 4-1 went off at odds that would make Esky a reasonable bet.   Esky is not a reasonable bet at 2-1 IMO.

Eskeyendereya doesn\'t look any better than Friesan Fire did coming into this race IMO.

[sekrah]

What was wrong with Homeboykris\'s workout?   Also, Hear anything on Endorsement or Paddy O\'Prado?

Thanks

[miff]

Homeboychris worked very slow on turf,around the dogs.Tricky trying to put stamina into this one. If HBC wins the derby, I\'ll quit the game.

Endorsement worked back fast/well and looks to have big talent.(another Win Star) His lack of experience may be very difficult to overcome in this 20 horse scramble.Had a perfect trip in last.


Paddy O\'Prado,a roan? galloped well(from memory) but I feel he ran his eyeballs out last time and the time before,may react.


Regardless of figs,I\'m against any horse that had a tough, gut wrencher in his start prior to the derby, extra spacing or not.


Mike

[MO]

I think if you look closely at his 2 races this year, you will see vast improvement. In Tampa he was VERY late changing leads, and when he did change, he rebroke - a good sign - and still was in the place photo.

In Arkansas he chased the lone speed and SHOULD have finished up the track as a result. He also switched leads perfectly and on cue. Speed unchallanged invariably wins. Often times, horses that are front runners who chase another speed horse usually finish out of the money. But Super Saver has no quit in him. Dublin had every right to blow by him, but - good front runners like SS when they find themselves chasing a lone speed horse, often times turn the race into 2 seperate races. SS was no longer racing against LOD in Arkansas, but he was racing as the lone speed against the rest of that field. When they galloped out, all 3 remained in the same position. Dublin could not or would not go by SS and neither could get by the winner galloping out.
 
Now SS moves to the track where he ran his best figure (and where Dublin ran his 2 worst figures), he paired that fig twice in 2 starts this year which were CLEARLY preps - winning would have been gravy, nothing more, there was no intention to win - this horse, given a clean trip, dare I say is a MORTAL LOCK to finish in the exacta. And at 20-1 he will pay $20.00 or more to place if Esky and SC are not in the exacta. If one of them are, SS still rounds out a $140.00 exacta. Yep, think I\'ma gonna make a big score this year. Lord knows its been a long time comin.........

[smalltimer]

Mike,
I\'ve suggested for the last 2 years that as long as all artificial tracks are designated as Synthetic, there will be problems for handicappers.

Considering Cushion, Pro Ride, Polytrack and Tapeta as one in the same is just not accurate.  I make that type designation similar to ALL turf races just saying turf:  no fst/no hvy/no yld, no nothing.  Clearly, those turf surfaces are all different and all cause certain horses to perform differently.  Its the same as all dirt races just being defined as \"dirt.\"  No fast/no sly fast/no heavy/no muddy, no nothing.  We all know each of those dirt surfaces are different and affect horses differently.

Can you imagine if the DRF or Brisnet or TG only designated a race as \"dirt.?\"  Or just designated all turf races as just \"turf\"?.
People wouldn\'t know what the hell they\'re betting.  

That\'s why the Synth designation is a difficult read for most people.
For 3 years now I\'ve charted the differences in moving from artificial to dirt and there are some constants.  But, everytime a guy tries to throw them out to the TG crowd, somebody wants to make light of it.

[analizethis]

True but also true that all \"dirt\" surfaces are not the same. The Churchill dirt is different than the Belmont dirt which is different than the Gulfstream dirt. These differences relate to the ecosystems in which these surfaces exist and the \"dirt\" material used in the construction of these surfaces.

As horse players we need to continue to educate and seek education on the impact of these surface differences and similarities on performance.

[analizethis]

Regardless of figs,I\'m against any horse that had a tough, gut wrencher in his start prior to the derby, extra spacing or not.

Including, I presume, Ice Box?

[miff]

Analyze,

I did not consider Ice Box,a one run closer to have had a gut wrencher in his last. A tough, hard fought stretch duel,yes. I think that horses like, Rule, Super Saver, Line of David and others that were on the hustle from the gate and ran the ENTIRE race, layed their bodies down and are more likely candidates for regression.With their up close style and the expected race dynamics,there is also the question of how they will do going that far, under pressure.

Others look at how much a horse jumped forward to evaluate stress. I feel that although Esky got a huge neg-3, he only \"ran\" 5/16ths of a mile.Horses that paired, with slower figs, Rule, Super Saver and others are more likely to be gutted than Esky, imo.There is also the question of 5-6 rather one dimensional speed horses which should compromise their preferred running style. No easy leads on May 1st.


Mike

[sekrah]

Disagree that Icebox ran a \"gutwrencher\".   He came home down the stretch with his fastest kick of the race.  He just got up, but he wasn\'t spent IMO.

I wouldn\'t necessary throw out a horse coming in off a gutwrencher, but here\'s the horses I\'d classify as meeting those qualifications:   Super Saver, Line of David, Dublin, Conveyance, Endorsement, Rule.

I thought both Funny Cide and Smarty Jones laid it all on the line in their final preps (2003 Wood and 2004 Ark Derby) and they both nearly won the Triple Crown.  Same with Barbaro in the 06 Florida Derby.. Tracked hard set pace and battled Sharp Humor for the entire stretch drive.

I don\'t think it should disqualify a horse.

[ajkreider]

Sadler team seems to agree with you on Line of David.  Said this on Sunday (from Downey):

This is the first day he acted like his old self," said trainer John Sadler's assistant Larry Benavidez as Line of David bounced off the track back to Barn 42 before dawn. "That was a tough race in Arkansas.\"

Not yet convinced he\'s a toss, but three weeks is a quick turnaround.

[MonmouthGuy]

IMO, Rule\'s sheet is not all that dissimilar to Hard Spun entering the 2007 Derby. The difference to me seems to be the Race Shape. The speed in the 2007 Derby was limited and relatively cheap (Stormello, Tueflesberg if i recall correctly).  Here, there is a lot of quality speed and I just don\'t know if any of the need the lead types are going to get to relax enough up front. I like the jockey change here, and think that if Rule gets a good PP and RD can get him forwardly placed, Rule can go a long way. Race shape dictates that in a 20 horse field that he should get a better trip than Fifth Third (who could fall victim to a Dunkirk type trip) or Lookin at Lucky.

If Rule lasts 9F, historically that means he should hang on for a piece.  Hard Spun was probably best at a mile, too (although he never ran at that distance)---didn\'t mean he couldn\'t carry it farther with the right trip.

[big18741]

Hard Spun had to run hard for the first two calls to shake lose from the rats(Stormello,Cowtown Cat,Tueflesburg) pressing/chasing.

He went 22.96 46.26 then when those slugs quit was able to slow it down some-111.13 and 137.04

Rule has his work cut out for him against these-a better deeper group of early types that figure to run for more than just four furlongs.Dominguez would have to alter Rule\'s style drastically to get a chunk of this race IMO.Fla Derby he was pressing only Pulsion.Here it\'s gonna be so much tougher.

Think you really have to assume a fast pace and see who benefits from that.

[sekrah]

Agree with most here and its what scares me off Super Saver whom I love.  He has had trouble rating and in a 20-horse field with 5 or 6 speed ballers, this is not the place to learn.   Horses who like to goto the front are going to be amped up even more than normal.

[analizethis]

That\'s correct and thank you. I was confused by that Derby because it was clearly a closer race (first, third and fourth were 17,14 and 20 at the six furlong mark) but your comments offer some explanation as to why Hard Spun was able to hang on all the way for second.

This year, I believe that we will see a half in sub :46 and a six furlong time of less than 1:10 which will set up for closers like 2000, 2001 and 2005.

I don\'t think there is another one like Hard Spun (also finished second in the Classic that year didn\'t he) in this race who like his stablemate the following year (Eight Bells) could seemingly run all day at the same pace. Maybe that was all a function of Jones\'s training style which as I recall, was a little unique.

Bob

[JimP]

I hate to see these excellent graded stakes winners referred to as \"slugs\". I know I would be ecstatic to own a horse like Stormello, or Cowtown Cat, or Teufelsberg.