Lookin @ Lucky

[ROBERT49]

interesting stats. thanks. all I was trying to say in my original post was his races w/out blinkers were so much smoother, that I expected and was hoping Baffert would take them off. I think the blinkers off, the switch to dirt, and the added distance of the Derby will help LAL. I now think he has a chance to run his best race, and if the odds are right, I will be betting him.

[flushedstraight]

No idea what is specifically meant by \"This is a Thoro-Graph board\".

It appears everyone has the same challenge regarding LAL. His only dirt race was (obviously?) a prep where he was (obviously?) a short horse and (obviously?) ran into some trouble.  If the THORO-GRAPH # that he earned at OP is taken directly as a reflection of his current dirt ability, then by all means he\'s a toss in the derby at low odds as the clear second choice.

However, if you consider factors such as the majority of exacta finishers in the past 5 derbys setting multiple point new tops in their THORO-GRAPH #s, and more importantly (obvious?) trainer intent and (obvious?) trainer ability, he appears, at least to me, as a very difficult and potentially costly toss at any price if you plan on either playing ESKY in the win pool (I\'m sure that\'s nobody reading this board) or keying longshots in exotics including some decent savers with the faves on top.

Clearly, with Street Sense you already knew what he was capable of running at CD, and that\'s vastly different than projecting a THORO-GRAPH # based on the THORO-GRAPH # in the OP prep but these are the cards we\'re dealt with LAL.  My comparison between the two was based on their similar derby preps in their derby years and trainer intent in handling a 2 year old champ. It was the closest precedent I could come up with for LAL. If comparisons with Street Sense are more appropriate for Jackson Bend or Dublin because of their dirt tops at 2 then that\'s a different discussion; I think NOTHING is way too strong a word given a context beyond that, which I thought would be accepted here.

And yes, I confess I used the taboo \"C\" word in my original post. Please don\'t confuse me with \"C\"-Handicapper; I have not posted here in a while and I\'m rusty. Mulligan.

[TGJB]

In TG terms, SS (who had run fast enough at two to win the Derby, and had not yet gotten back to his 2yo top at three) and LAL (who ran a 3 point lifetime top in his first start at three) are completely dissimilar.

[alm]

As I said earlier...I love Baffert.  That\'s not my issue.  Don\'t know why he used blinkers.  Don\'t know why he took them off.

He was addressing a problem.  He did not solve it.  

As I also said, it\'s too complicated a subject to research simply by looking at races won by horses with blinks being taken off, because circumstances change.  Blinkers being added is also a problem not so easily researched, because not all blinkers are the same...some bigger, some smaller.

Also, I don\'t bet every race, so I don\'t bet every race in which a horse has blinkers taken off.  All things being equal, if I focus on 2 horses in a race and one is having its blinkers taken off, I will ALWAYS toss it in favor of the other animal.

I have never been disappointed in those circumstances.  What people do with their money is their business.  Betting LAL in this race could be dangerous for your wallet...and...I love Baffert, so it\'s not about dumping on him.

[jbelfior]

Alm:
No need to defend your position. A horseplayers\' biggest scores are as likely to occur on experience, gut feelings, etc as with stats, figures, Dosage, Tomlinsons, etc.

Good Luck,
Joe B