Bluegrass

[Leamas57]

I was a little suprised to see Odysseus entered in this as opposed to the AD. Why run a horse on poly when you know he likes dirt? Anyway, this one is a bit of a puzzle.

I think you have to like PP and ODY (if you guess he\'ll like the poly), with Interactif clearly a force. MMM is likely to make some noise. Even FD could get involved. Geez, I would have saved time and space saying whom I didn\'t like...

This one probably needs a key, and for me it\'s PP, with ODY, I, MMM.

Leamas.

[Wrongly]

\"We were kind of torn between the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby,\" Albertrani said. \"The Polytrack at Keeneland was a concern because he\'s never raced over a synthetic track, but we felt like the Blue Grass would come up a little softer, and he would\'ve had to take two planes to get to Arkansas. Our colt was a little tired from the last race, and he\'s just now getting his energy back, so if you\'re thinking ahead three weeks to the Derby, I think the Blue Grass is the best decision for us.\"

Odysseus only needs to finish 3rd or even 4th to move on.  I\'m a bit surprised that more people aren\'t on his bandwagon.  Could be a live long-shot in the Derby.

[Leamas57]

Thanks, Wrongly!

I thought ODY\'s pedigree for poly (I use turf breeding as metric for poly) was a little less appealing than others in the race. I do very well remember, though, that Street Sense ran on poly and didn\'t particularly like it (beaten by Hard Spun I think), then came back to win Derby with Cinderella ride.

ODY, though, has to hit the super to get to the Derby.

Leamas

[nyc1347]

Street Sense lost to Dominican... horses that hate the poly should be given an excuse most of the time to be given a nice chance to run a top effort next out on dirt..  u kno like.. LAL

[alm]

Interactif: favorite and winner, barring a bad trip.

Padua (ODY) would enter Francis the Talking Mule to get on TV at the Derby.

[Michael D.]

Odysseus - I\'ll let him beat me first time poly.

First Dude - ran well on poly last year, but comes in on short rest for a race I\'m not sure they targeted.

Stately Victor - dam Collect The Cash won the 9f QEII at Kee back in 2000. solid \'6\' over the surface last year. 3 bunched up races this year, but good spacing for this one. looks to get the trip, draws well, and gets Garcia. a 1w/3w run in the \'3\' to \'4\' range puts him close at a price.

Make Music For Me - backed up a bit over the course last year. contender with the solid figures, but does he want 9f over the poly?

Codoy - strong run over the Kee turf course last year. interesting, but a bit slow on poly.

Pleasant Prince - low odds and a possible bounce.

Paddy O - \'5\' or so.

Aik - very strong run over the course last year. gets Gomez. dangerous.

Interactif - respect the \'1.5\' over the Kee turf course last year. two races this year were 1/8 of a mile sprints to the wire. rolls here with a more aggressive ride.


Use the two Pletcher horses, Aik and Inter, and Stately Victor (30-1).

[mjellish]

I agree that AIK should run well here.  I\'ve also been told that he is training lights out.  But both of those things could be offset by a wide trip and the fact that I don\'t think 1 1/8th is his best distance.  

INT ran a very nice race last time to close into the soft fractions set by Sidney\'s Candy.  But he was all out to do it, and he was all out in his race before that as well.  I don\'t know if he is going to fire his best here and I think he is going to be an underlay as a Pletcher horse breaking from post 9, so I would have to let him beat me.

I can\'t see any reason to expect a big performance out of ODY.  Horse still looks green to me, doesn\'t change leads properly (he screwed that up again in a recent work) and I don\'t think the Poly is going to move him up.  Toss for me.

Make Music For Me didn\'t show much development at 2.  Sire profile says he should like synthetics, but he certainly moved up when switched to the grass last out. He seemed like a new horse in that race and finsished very well after going wide on the turn, although he drifted in, and the final time was a bit faster than the Grade I that was run earlier on the card.  I don\'t know if he can get the distance, but he has been firing bullets in the morning.  I think he is going to run pretty strong here and offers some value with 6-1 ML after drawing well.

By just looking at the sheet Pleasant Prince looks like a bounce to me, and his sire profile would tend to say he wouldn\'t move up on Poly.  But his last work at KEE was nearly 2 full seconds faster than the next closest that day and he ran ok on the KEE Poly last fall.  I don\'t like the spacing heading into this as he is being rushed into the race for graded earnings.  But he actually ran faster than the winner of the FL Derby, and from what I\'ve heard the trainer is telling people that this horse has suddenly come around since the Fountain of Youth and is going to run big today.  So that makes him a tough toss for me as one of the favorites, which makes the race tough to play with any confidence unless you want to take a stand against him anyway.  Then again, INT should take some money here and if you take a stand against him instead then you may get a good price with PP and Make Music For Me in the EX.

So I guess what I am saying is that I find this race tough to figure and will probably pass unless I get very good odds, which is more or less normal for me on the sythetics as I just don\'t seem to be very good at them.

[sekrah]

I\'m going to take a flyer on Paddy O\'Prado with Desormeaux riding.  Big forward move last time with decent spacing Bloodlines filled with endurance,    Was up near the front with a very fast pace in the Palm Beach-G3 and he had lots of energy left to kick on.   Judging from his workouts, he seems to be gripping the poly pretty good.  pun intended.  

Aikenite should be in the mix.

Not impressed with Interactif\'s late-kick on his first poly try.  He should of had plenty of energy left with those fractions.

I don\'t think Make Music can get that kind of distance, and I wouldn\'t fancy him against these guys at 1 1/16th either.

Pleasant Prince is okay and I think he\'s an exotics crasher in the Derby, but this don\'t look like a good spot for him.

[jack72906]

I used MMM, Paddy, and Pleasant Prince in my P4. Was going to toss PP but these clocker comments put me back on him:

Comment:
Leparoux on board, started about 4 lengths behind mate Hunter\'s Kitten and blew by that one with ease in the stretch.  Very sharp effort in fractions of :23.1-:34.4-:58.2 before galloping out well in 1:11.3

[mjellish]

Nice call on Stately Victor Michael D.  Hope you had some money on his nose.

[Michael D.]

tks Michael. have the Makers/Blue Grass double big. missed the tris and supers though.

this horse is real. no chance with the slow pace/trouble last two. strictly a turf/synth horse though.

[sekrah]

Thank you Michael D.. Because of you, I decided to toss him as my 5th horse around my Paddy/Aik key.  I owe you.

COMPLETED: 86239826884133 KEE #9 $4 Exacta 7,8,​WT,2,3,6,7,8 none $ 32.00 $ 0.00 - $ 32.00
COMPLETED: 11804857482804 KEE #9 $4 Exacta 2,3,6,7,8,​WT,7,8 none $ 32.00 $ 1145.20 + $ 1113.20

[Michael D.]

Paddy O ran well. Looking at Trakus, Interactif ran the 2nd fastest figure in the race, but Paddy figured to get the better trip.

The winner exploded through the stretch. :11.97 final 1/8, 37.8 mph.

[miff]

Nice pick Mike,could not come up with that horse if I lived to be a hundred. Interactif was brutal imo,good trip except for wide turns and empty when the running started, poster child for phony wide figure out of this.Seems like Kent D pulled the trigger a little too early and cost Paddy O the race.

The two preps, Ark Derby and Bluegrass produced no new contenders and reinforced the previous top 3-4 contenders.Put a fork in the distance challenged Nobles Promise.


Mike

[RICH]

seriously, you all like this this synth thing, a complete disgrace, I lost 20 dollars, complete rubbish, it\'s not the money, its the point. I hate what the poly has done to the triple crown races.