Ice Box has a ton of stamina influence in the bottom side of his pedigree

[nyc1347]

Ok this post will be all over the place cause there are many things to say but...


I did the analysis with the Florida Derby and someone had asked me about what I would personally play.  I did exactly what I had said.  I understand that its pointless to say how much I wager for that is my business but going into this race I responded to someones question.  As far as the San Luis I posted my opinion and I did the same with the Bonnie Miss Stakes.  If you havent noticed I dabble a few dollars here and there but when I see something I really like within 15 to 1 or less I usually do a big show wager...and thats always been my go to thing.  Whatever its my thing and Il stop posting about it.  

As far as making money, I do make a big deal out of making $1,000 or more a day.  Assuming I did that successfully twice a week for a year I would be making over $100k a year.  I think that would be a pretty nice profession dont you?  As far as everyone elses tip money and having more money to wager (or a bankroll) unfortunately I dont have that luxury when I put money into a Show pool.  Theres comes to a point where a bigger show wager will significantly affect the payout at certain tracks at certain times and my personal bankroll has nothing to do with others and again I will stop posting about money and I agree with ya. Unless I have a picture of myself holding a ticket with the wager each race I agree that theres no way of anyone believing it so whatever.

I feel that I have much more recently than not stuck to the analysis with the Thorograph Numbers and patterns with all my posts unless it has been in a general thread about the Derby, Patterns, etc. so il continue that as usual.

I will not be humiliated on a 40 to 1 shot based on what the analysis showed me going into this specific race with THREE favorties being underlays/tosses. Its no different than anyone using the thoros who thought Rule would run a top effort and did a win wager then lost. A loss is a loss.

Question for ya:   Why do I only get credit from you for picking the wrong bomb and no credit for the 3 ML faves being those underlays/tosses within the same exact analysis?   Especially when two longshots came in first and second.  The point is I had the right idea going into the race within my analysis....  Right? Your just criticizing me since I picked the wrong horse when it couldve been several horses.

I tried to make 3 points within that analysis..  

1.  The 3 faves especially the morning line Fave, Rule, was an underlay or a toss.

2.  horses that have showed to improve forward thru a pattern and nice rest would MOST LIKELY win that race..not a horse that showed it would go backwards (the 3 faves ALL based on no rest within the pattern)

3.  Given the 2 above that BA seemed to have a healthy pattern, nice rest, and faster figures and was better than a 20 ML shot to win ( just as the others, but werent my pick cause they were a little slower)

I think the biggest point I have proven here is sooo many people, with these young horses, get mesmerized with a very fast figure (such as the 3 faves in this race) and try to make an excuse to play those horses more often than not.   I am strictly a pattern read player and and feel its the best way to handicap.   I think this FLorida Derby is a great lesson that even the fastest horses coming into the race can very well be an underlay based on prior patterns.  Learning from this race as well as others should help us figure out future races with what to look for in order to make better decisions.

[nyc1347]

Coracatado has proven to need nice rest to run at a new level.. im not really sure the rest he has had so far but if he comes into the derby off about 50 days or more rest then he looks pretty good to me to run well at nice odds.  Cant take anything at all away from that point of view.  Same thing goes for Rule he will have about 80s days off and has shown to run at the 1 level with 3 months off.  Goin to be tough to gaugh horses like NP and LAL cause those horses will be 2nd off the layoff and should most likely improve even more from the last efforts.

[TGJB]

Stick to the sheet analysis, which you do okay. Lose the rest, especially noise after the race unless you SPECIFICALLY say who you are betting and HOW (show, win/show, whatever) before the race.

Leave the amounts out. There are actual pros here. Some day you may become one. If you do it won\'t be by making big show bets on longshots, because a) bookmakers almost never take show bets unless you also bet win/place, and b) if you put it into the pools the price will drop precipitously due to the small pools, negating the value of them being longshots.

[Flighted Iron]

nyc,

 I\'m slightly confused.\"Rest\" for you means exactly what?

[nyc1347]

rest according to the horses indidual pattern.. according to what i see with his specific pattern is when he ran a new top he regressed twice with short rest.  when he got the well deserved rest ( i believe 48 days off from what i remember) he ran a new top an santa anita.. he then took off about 20-30 days off and went backwards again.  The time of rest I am talking about is the time from his first original top effort to the new top effort (im guessing about 70-80 days off).  having about that much time from his last top effort to his next race would allow me to think he can come back to another top race.

[Flighted Iron]

nyc,

at any rate,my inclusion of this guy at CD is contingent upon him getting back
to his 3 in the SA derby and him being a big price.I\'m speculating he may like
dirt more than polyjunk and i\'m looking at the \"been running on polyworthlesssurface going to dirt angle\".If this comes to fruition I\'ll be wagering wps and tying him in with others in exoctics and so on and so forth.The
next 40 days should prove interesting.

good luck,
mjs

[nyc1347]

> Stick to the sheet analysis, which you do okay.


I appreciate that and I will unless its a general thread.


> Lose the rest, especially noise after the race
> unless you SPECIFICALLY say who you are betting
> and HOW (show, win/show, whatever) before the
> race.

ok sounds good.



>
> Leave the amounts out.

I have already said I would and I actually apologize.  The fact is that I am so involved within horse racing so much and when I place a wager of $1000 or more to show I feel REALLY good about my chances based on many factors. Again, I will stop but my passion for certain opinions tend to overwhelm me when i feel that confident to pull the trigger within the thorograph analysis.  I emphasize certain amounts to show my confidence with what I see.


> There are actual pros here.

I consider myself a pro based on a living, for several years, without working (a typical 9 to 5..etc) and making profit because of YOUR product. How can you tell me anything different IF (which i understand you would want proof) I am making a living doing so?  

> Some day you may become one.

I am one whether you (or anyone) wants to believe that or not.


If you do it won\'t be
> by making big show bets on longshots, because a)
> bookmakers almost never take show bets unless you
> also bet win/place,

They DO take those wagers on ANY horse..  I wont post the website(s) out of respect for this site but if you do research almost %100 will AND give you a rebate as long as the horse pays $2.20 or more to show (which i would understand based on negative pools, etc.)

and

b) if you put it into the pools the price will drop precipitously due to the
small pools, negating the value of them being longshots.

Yes the money put into public pools will negate the odds BUT I do not wager in those pools unless I am in person AND the pool has significant money in it which my specific wager will not effect odds.  I do have that covered within my profession.

[richiebee]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
 
> As far as making money, I do make a big deal out
> of making $1,000 or more a day.  Assuming I did
> that successfully twice a week for a year I would
> be making over $100k a year.  I think that would
> be a pretty nice profession dont you?  

Without divulging household income, which I will do under protest in about
24 days, I feel comfortable saying that a lot of TG customers/posters are
clearing $100K per annum. Included in that $100K is vacation time, sick time,
matched 401K benefit, life insurance for dependents and partially compensated
health benefits. If one labors in the right industry, added to that $100K might
be a bonus ranging from 5% of one\'s annual compensation to in excess of 100% of
one\'s compensation. Many would contend that the greatest fringe benefit of a
traditional profession is the opportunity to spend 40 - 70 hours away from one\'s
spouse, thus preserving some degree of marital bliss and general sanity.

Of course along with the benefits of a mainstream profession comes the obligation
to pay income taxes, but Hell, the way I figure it the United States needs to
eventually colonize Mars, save all the Earth\'s endangered species and get
involved in most of the World\'s military and religious conflicts,large and small,
and these pursuits require revenue.

Very few working these mainstream professions have the time to reflect that they
are involved on a daily basis with the production of goods or provision of
services which are either essential to or enhance the quality of life of the
general populace. Some working in larger professions do not have
time to reflect that by efficiently managing a going concern they are keeping a
lot of folks employed and keeping families solvent. The satisfaction that comes
from these reflections can be quite gratifying.

So to me, personally, no you are not a professional. You have a job, albeit a
well paying one, but you are making every bit of the contribution to society as
a kid pitching quarters on a stoop somewhere in Brooklyn. But hey, somebody\'s
gotta do it.

NYC you remind me of an old racetrack buddy, one of my oldest friends, someone I
have been going racing with for 35 years. He always loudly booted his horses home,
whipping them with his program, shoving his winning tickets in the face of anyone
who did not turn away from him. He never understood that in pari-mutuel wagering
one of the inescapable realities is that the score you made in any given race was
likely (indirectly) at the expense of someone standing very close to you, and
said circumstance calls for a certain amount of decorum, what Covel has called
\"humility\".

I can not tell you the number of times I had to prevent my obnoxious racetrack
buddy from taking a beating (by his own friends) in the grandstand or the parking
lot after the races...

> I think the biggest point I have proven here is
> sooo many people, with these young horses, get
> mesmerized with a very fast figure (such as the 3
> faves in this race) and try to make an excuse to
> play those horses more often than not.   I am
> strictly a pattern read player and and feel its
> the best way to handicap.   I think this FLorida
> Derby is a great lesson that even the fastest
> horses coming into the race can very well be an
> underlay based on prior patterns.  Learning from
> this race as well as others should help us figure
> out future races with what to look for in order to
> make better decisions.

Pure post mortem analysis, and over analysis of the pattern. Nowhere
in your analysis did I see any mention of the fact that Pulsion or some
other runner would get up to Rule\'s throatlatch and press him through hot
fractions. The pace scenario, and not any intricate pattern voodoo based on
days of rest, is what cooked the favorite and set up the winner. I know we have
gotten to the point where pace discussions are almost heretical on this board,
but in the Florida Derby I think the duel between Rule and Pulsion (and the
inability or unwillingness to rate Rule) was the main storyline.

Looking forward to your analysis of the Derby preps and the Triple Crown. Don\'t
forget to go \"all in\" on Best Actor if and when he tries turf.

Richiebee
Pool 2 9/1 LAL Secured

[MO]

Back in 1990, Go For Wand would not switch leads. So I bet Bayakoa.

[TGJB]

I appreciate that you are a client and will leave it there.

Which is tough to do.

[SonicDonn]

While his style (and substance) may be different from some of the more popular posters on this forum, I always read and enjoy nyc1347\'s posts as well.

He has made some excellent picks and puts his opinions out there for everyone to see.

I don\'t see why anyone would doubt the bets he said he placed. I also like to tell everyone what I bet. I believe him.

I NEVER bet horses to show but have found nyc\'s adventures in the show pool interesting and entertaining even though I think it is a really bad idea and would advise him to stop making these bets.

This forum should be a \"big tent\", no?

[P-Dub]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Back in 1990, Go For Wand would not switch leads.
> So I bet Bayakoa.


Gee, thanks for the memory.

Did you bet on Mancini over Duk Koo Kim also??

[MO]

As long as you learned not to bet on horses who don\'t change leads, I\'ll forgive the sarcasm.

[P-Dub]

Thats not the point.

You could have given any number of examples, you chose to pick one of the biggest tragedies in the history of the Breeders\' Cup.

I didn\'t need that example to \"learn\" about switching leads, or the lack thereof. Its something that was awful to watch, and didn\'t need to be reminded of.

I didn\'t particularly enjoy cashing that ticket.

[MO]

Got your attention though, right? I didn\'t find any joy in cashing either.