Read on Christine Daae?

[TreadHead]

Although it would seem her last race was a pretty easy one and she was not asked for much, because there is no h? next to the figure I am still quite confused as to whether or not to consider her last race a 9f workout or a serious reaction to a big top.  Thoughts?

[TGAB]

A 0 earned as a January 3yo is huge for any equine and fillies on average are 3 points slower than colts. Ouch!

[Leamas57]

Alan:

I have the same question as Tread. I saw that race and thought she was lightly used--at least to the extent that any horse is lightly used at 1 1/8. I want to use her as a single today but have some reservations.

Wouldn\'t we allow for the hand ride in most of the race before diving into a negative pattern read?  I may simply single her because my gut told me she was an Oaks winner after that race.

Leamas

[nyc1347]

Amen is a MONSTER.  and pletcher will probably pick up the scraps. With Christine Daae, well.. good luck.

[miff]

CD\'s last was her first two turn race and she could not be expected to pair, hardly a bounce in the real sense of the word.

CD\'s TG \"0\" is much faster than Rags/Beyer have it (TG 3 range) but both, like TG, have her slower at the route. The track on 2/28 was not great for speed and she was up close to the pace.

Good Luck

Mike

[Silver Charm]

She also pulls 6 lbs and could benefit from the Sadler shipper pushing the pace.

[TGAB]

In Rotws and various online seminars we\'ve talked a lot about horses working down to tops as opposed to running them off the layoff. A solid small step progression is preferable insofar as it allows horses to deal with increasingly more stressful efforts and it affords them a better chance of physically being able to cope with the demands racing puts upon them. They build a foundation which allows them to react, recover, recuperate and re-energize from stressful efforts in a realistic time frame with less likelihood of physical mishaps.

Christine Daae ran a big effort off the layoff--too much, too soon--and the subsequent effort I think proves it. I think if Christine wasn\'t affected she would\'ve run faster than the figure shown, geared down or not. The point is the big effort hurt, not the last one, and there\'s a good chance she\'ll be feeling it for a long time.

She is NOT the most likely winner.

[Leamas57]

Yes, Silver, that\'s an important part of it. AH adds weight, CD drops to 116. Besides, the big fig was only 7 furlongs, not 9. I am holding my ground on her. She ran very easily last out and now she gets weight and there\'s a rabbit in here, too, though I am not sure Leparoux will chase her.  

Biggest concern is jockey now as I would rather have Leparoux instead of Naki. BTW, I am very aware of DMC in here as a spoiler.

Leamas

[miff]

Alan,


The fact that her \"regression\" was a first time career route, 1 1/8 no less, is relevant with her prior being a sprint.I did not see her as realyy being geared down in her last.

I would think that the much longer distance may have had just as much to do with the lesser fig as the possible stress from the fast first fig off of no foundation.

I agree CD has come to hand a little too quickly, foundation wise.


Mike

[nyc1347]

Dont be surprised if AH sets a track record today... and I am not even joking.  The race looks like it is set up perfectly for it and it may be done in hand ride fashion  lol   i dunno maybe im off here but just my opinion.

[TGAB]

Miff, I agree the new distance may have contributed in part to the regression.

[Flighted Iron]

nyc,

I\'d be surprised.Since you do not seem to be joking,where do I get action for this?

mjs

[TreadHead]

I am counting on AH following the pattern of huge explosion first dirt from synth but then a regression in the next race after, which I think has been discussed at length here.

I wasnt expecting CD to get back to her top here, but if she runs a 6 again its not near enough to even crack the money in this race.  Switch may fire big moving off synth and Devil May Care could be capable of a new top today too, which could be enough if AH regresses.  

Lots of variables to consider for only a 6 horse race.

[nyc1347]

Pletcherrrrrrrrrrrrr!   I went $100 straight 5 -3  and $40 the other way... grrrr shouldve just boxed it fully for the whole amount of $70 each way!  shoulda woulda coulda..  the 3 ran huge!  Negative 2?

[TreadHead]

Well done TGAB, you had it pegged correctly.  I wish I could have been more decisive and not spread my pick 3 so heavily.  But there could still be some nice payouts, love to see the 2 4 5 or 6 in this next leg