It's gonna be tough to beat Rule in the Florida Derby

[covelj70]

Radiohead is the only one as fast as Rule and looks like a big bounce candidate, he drew outside and doesn\'t likely want to go this far anyway.  I think the value in the race is throwing him out of the money all together as he will get bet and likely be the second choice.

The others who are even close figures wise either look poised for a big bounce (Miner\'s Reserve) or have already improved alot from their 2 year old tops which makes a big move forward unlikely here (Letenor, Ice Box, First Actor, Radiohead).

Game on Dude looks like he could get a piece of this underneath Rule but this is Game on Dude\'s first time going two turns, a tough task against these and we usually don\'t see new tops when they run this far the first time so I would say a piece of this underneath at best.

Soaring Empire is eligible to run a new top here but he has many lengths to make up so another one that could get a piece underneath at best.

First Dude could still improve some in this but is also only eligible for a minor piece barring a significant new top which doesn\'t seem likely

Depending on what the odds are on these three, I think a Rule over Game on Dude, Soaring Empire, First Dude exacta is the way to go.  If we can get Radiohead and Letenor out of the money, I think the exacta and trifeca will pay ok even with Rule on top.

Warning, given my 20-1 futures ticket on Rule, I am clearly at risk of being biased on this hoping he wins easy while pairing up his last and thus setting him up for a new top in the Derby which a) he would be eligible for given his impressive 2 year old top and b) which would make him very live in the big one

[richiebee]

Do not know if it was the Visionary Frank Stronach\'s decision to position the Fla
Derby 6 weeks before the Ky Derby, but America\'s favorite Debtor in Possession
will be hosting a very weak rendition of the Florida Derby.

Out of the 11 runners, there are 2 Graded/Group Stakes winners: Rule won Grade 3
stakes at those 2 fortresses of American racing tradition, Delta Downs and Tampa
Bay Downs; Radiohead won a 5 furlong grass Group II stake as a 2YO in Great
Britain.

Out of the 11 runners, six are eligible to be entered in a NW2LT race.

If Rule wins Saturday, he will head to CD as a highly hyped 3YO who really has
not faced top notch competition.

Others in the race who might have some upside down the road are Soaring Empire
(Belmont Stakes winners on both sides of immediate pedigree) and Best Actor who
may excel if and when switched to turf.

Other races on the Saturday card: In the Appleton, I like the 2 Canadian based
runners, Society\'s Chairman and Rahy\'s Attorney; the Biancone second time NA
runner might offer some value.

In the finale, a MSW on the grass, Angel Penna, in my opinion one of the 2 or 3
best turf trainers in the US, sends out a firster out of top notch racemare
Auntie Mame, might use her to \"anchor\" the late P4.

Richiebee
9/1 Pool 2 LAL secure.

[Michael D.]

Hi Jim,

Game On Dude, First Dude, Rule,and Miner\'s Reserve should all break running here. Not sure where Radiohead will be, but he\'s gonna have to be very good to get to the winner\'s circle from out there. Not out of the question, as he exploded through the stretch in the BC Juvy, put up a fast final 1/4 going 1m last, is trained by a guy who gets horses to stretch out in miraculous fashion, and has the good number over the track. Still, 3-1 might be too low to take from the 11 hole. Miner\'s Reserve looks like a serious runner, but post 9 is a tough spot with the 2 speeds inside. If Rule breaks well, and comfortably stalks either the 5 or 6 while 2w, he will be tough to beat. Has the number power, and the right connections. Not a ton of room for error though, as he\'ll have to deal with 3 runners around that first turn. Formidable, though maybe not much value at 5-2. Game On Dude, 12-1, has the tactical edge here, as he should get right to the rail. Two solid figures, and the last doesn\'t look like the end of the line for now. Would prefer another week, but he\'s a lightly raced sort with 5 weeks before his last. Another 2 points of development and a 1w/1w trip puts him close at a price. And I like Soaring Empire. Won\'t be 20-1, but he\'s going to sit 1w behind what could be a messy run around the 1st turn, and might have a trip edge here.

Both favorites are nice runners, but I\'ll focus on two potential trip horses at a price: key Game On Dude and Soaring Empire.