Man...

[TGJB]

...there\'s a lot of nonsense on that Rachel string.

Asmussen, who isn\'t a good layoff trainer to begin with (see profile), was clearly trying to finesse this one, running her short out of fear of running too big here and bouncing next time-- he knows basic sheets theory, spacing, etc. If Beyer is right, Steve actually nailed it-- she ran a figure that would have beaten any that any of the others had ever run before this one. Problem was Zardana jumped forward (again assuming Beyer got it right).

Now, that doesn\'t mean Asmussen got the whole thing right-- we\'ll find that out when we see what figure she runs at Oaklawn, if she shows. If I was managing she would-- nothing SHE did should have been a surprise to them.

Coupla things:

1-- Not only are there only a few MDO 4yos, but they are very early 4yos. Horses as a group get better with age, throughout a year as well as year by year.

2-- Zenyatta was basically never out of training, even when she wasn\'t showing works she was going to the track and training. She never got completely out of shape. Rachel was out since Labor Day, they stopped on her. Two different things, regardless of outcome.

[smalltimer]

Thanks TGJB.  I got good insights from nyc as well as mjellish.  
If Rachel came out of the race healthy yesterday, by all means they should run her.  How often do any females ever get a shot at a $5M pot?

[Dana666]

Well, that\'s certainly seeing the glass as half-full. I\'m not saying you\'re wrong. Yes, Oaklawn will tell the story, of course. I shouldn\'t be burying Rachel just yet, but I still have a very hard time seeing how she could lose that race yesterday (all your points notwithstanding)-checking the red board room and the sheets, which I didn\'t see yesterday, even confirms that it was a weak field. Fairgrounds is a very funky surface though, so perhaps that coupled with the layoff, mild-training, did her in. I\'m a bit skeptical as to how you see Asmussen planning this out so carefully (he knows the sheets theory and all); my own take is it is very hard to turn horses off and on so easily. It\'s a long year, and if Rachel stays in training, she will likely face Zenyatta more than once, so even Oaklawn won\'t tell the story. But I will stand by two points: Zenyatta has never looked better to me, and I still believe she\'s way better on dirt. Rachel still has a lot to prove against older horses.

[MonmouthGuy]

Looks like Oaklawn won\'t tell the story after all. DRF reporting she isn\'t shipping to Oaklawn on Monday and is likely out of the AB.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/111445.html

[Dana666]

Here\'s my post from yesterday:

\"They have no business even trying Zenyatta at this point, and I wouldn\'t be surprised if Assmussen makes up some excuse, and they don\'t even run at Oaklawn. Maybe Rachel can get back to her brillance of last year and maybe she can\'t, but in any event she\'s not even 50% at this point. It would be ridiculous even to try Zenyatta now.\"

[smalltimer]

Unfortunate, Rachel can\'t get fit enough in 4 weeks to make an appearance.  

I know John Shireffs has already declared for the Apple Blossom, but with Rachel being tired again, and backing out of another date with Zenyatta, I think now it\'s a 250K purse.  I wouldn\'t mind if he\'d keep Z in California and beat up some more tomato cans. Hell, instead of shipping her to Oaklawn, he should consider shipping her to Churchill for a couple races.  Since the BC is there this year, makes as much sense as anything. Other than showing Z to the fans in Arkansas, and getting her 2nd out on the dirt, I don\'t see that much upside to running her.  

I think you\'re gonna see Shireffs take some calculated  gambles with Zenyatta this year.  Is there anyone who doesn\'t think her running style, stride and conditioning were made for turf?  If she gets beat, she gets beat.    

At any rate, let\'s hope Asmussen can get Rachel back to her previous greatness, the year will not be complete until these two gals get it on.  

(Does that sound right?)   lol

[shanahan]

what we do know is this - the best mare resides in CA, the owner of RA is an ass who paid $10M for the filly and then laid off 225 people the next week, his wine is sold by the glass in every cheap place in the USA.  I\'m surprised he\'s not suing Assmussen/Borel.

Class is spelled MOSS, Ass is spelled JACKSON...the quiter.

Let the floodgates open....and don\'t hand me this shit about \"the horse isn\'t ready\"...I agree she\'s not, but I\'m not the braggart who has HOY award on my shelf.

[sekrah]

LMAO. This can be nominated for Joke Post of the Year.

[shanahan]

FU

[NoCarolinaTony]

Hey Shan....did you mean Fordham University by any chance?

We used to chant it back in the Days at Rose Hill.....

[shanahan]

ha ha...of course...I apologize.  that was unbecoming. SECRAH pls accept, but also tell me your reasons...

NTC - going to KNLD this April?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Yes as of now I plan to be there again.Lets finally get together....

NC Tony

[marcus]

Great to see some racing history unfold on cable TV . Undoubtably , we\'ll be talking about this one a long time to come  ! If she ran a something in the area equivalent to a 1 on TG ( as has been projected by some ) , that\'s probably in the ballpark imo and throw in a filly factor .  ..

[Lost Cause]

shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Let the floodgates open....and don\'t hand me this
> @#$%& about \"the horse isn\'t ready\"...I agree
> she\'s not, but I\'m not the braggart who has HOY
> award on my shelf.

If you agree she\'s not ready then why would you think the owners and trainers would run her anyway...would you run your horse to lose in front of possibly the biggest audience (excl. KY Derby) racing has had in a long while..

I would rather see a race with both of them ready or else the debate will continue...There is time later this year..hopefully both stay sound.

[bobphilo]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I would rather see a race with both of them ready
> or else the debate will continue...There is time
> later this year..hopefully both stay sound.

Lost Cause, I agree completely. I recall that when Oaklawn first made their proposal several of us were skeptical of the race ever coming off. Somehow we all got caught up with Rachel/Zenyatta fever and began planning betting strategies for a race that would never happen – at least not in the Apple Blossom.

As for Rachel's prep, I heard that Asmussan was concerned that if she put in too big an effort first time back off the layoff she would bounce in the next race so the instructions were to not \"squeeze the lemon\". Certainly I\'ve never seen Rachel choked back so much early, as Borel had \"both feet up on the dashboard\" for the first 6 furlongs. Rachel is a naturally speedy filly and may
have resented such extreme rating off soft fractions. In addition fighting the
rider for her head can tire a horse as much as a fast early pace.

On the other hand, though the fractions seem to give the appearance that Rachel
could have taken the lead easily, the speedy Fighter Wing was being sent and
might have engaged her in a suicidal duel if challenged. Maybe there was no
middle ground strategy possible if there was such fear of having her bounce next
out due to fitness concerns.

Personally, I feel that Asmussan\'s stats show he can have most horses ready
first time off the layoff so she was probably fit enough to beat these fillies
if ridden differently. Even so, I\'m also skeptical that she would have been
super fit enough to face Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom, given the long layoff and
short preparation. I always thought that trying to rush her back so early was a
mistake in the first place,

The big problem is that with a hard running horse like Rachel its not really
possible to have her run a half-assed prep race for fear of having her bounce
next out because she\'s not fully fit. She simply must be brought to fitness
gradually, as per the original plan, and be ready to run a good race first time back without fear of burning her out.

Bob