Is Empire Maker ‘bounce proof’ or a Hansel-Help Mr. Brown

[Know Nothing]

I want to take my whole weeks pay from working at the Bagel Shop and bet it on Empire Maker to win in the Kentucky Derby. I bet him in the Wood and really crushed him. It was easy.

I have been reading what a lot of experts are saying in various chat rooms on the internet and I see where some of them say that Empire Maker has never regressed so that must make him “bounce proof”, right Mr. Brown. My friends dad says Empire Maker looks a  like another Hansel to him. I did some research and I see where Hansel didn’t do so good Mr Brown.He also had Jerry Bailey riding him.

My friends dad says I should ask you what you think, that your opinion is the only one that counts this time of year. I’m very nervous as I type this Mr. Brown but is Empire Maker ‘bounce proof’ or is he another Hansel?

Thanks Mr. Brown

Wanna be wiseguy, Know Nothing.

[TGJB]

No horse is \"bounce-proof\". I read that post on the other board, and two comments- first, Ragozin\'s figures on EM are wrong, he has the FD a little too slow, and the Wood too fast (again). There are significant differences on other horses as well, and I have a feeling we\'ll be getting into these as time goes on. Second, the poster wasn\'t saying that a horse that hadn\'t gone back couldn\'t bounce-- my read was he meant just that it was less likely than it would be for a horse that had already established a level that stressed him.

These questions are price sensitive-- there are no absolutes. I\'ll save my analysis on EM and the others until the on-line seminar next week, but we\'ll be posting the Derby contenders for sale later today, and others might want to weigh in.

But here\'s an opinion for you-- win or lose with EM, making bets with money that\'s important to you on short priced favorites in very big fields isn\'t a good idea in general.

[Tabitha]

1st...never over emphasize the Florida Derby results or any race run over that track unless the horse closes significant ground. Its not run on the most fair of surfaces. Maybe Trust N\' Luck is off form, but maybe he looked good for a race or two at Gulfstream. He wouldn\'t be the first. Granted, Empire came home cruising, but he came home in 13 seconds for the last eighth.

He did it in unpunished fashion, but did anyone else notice Empire Maker\'s Wood Memorial stretch run? Sure he\'s an Unbridled and Frankel may have taken some care not to squeeze the lemon dry, but I\'m not sure that stretch run against a gelding was the type of race to influence \"bagel money\" confidence.

Lastly, lets not be in denial, Frankel\'s got the good mojo going, and that doesn't mean luck. But I haven\'t seen the mojo work as well for him in the biweekly grind he\'s essentially into now. In the end, you have to ask yourself: \"Is Frankel\'s colt crying out for a mojo enhanced 10 marks?\" I think the decision upon whether to bet the bagel money shakes down in that answer.

Tabi