The Robert B Lewis Rundown!

[nyc1347]

ok kiddies lets doooo this.....



1 -  kind of seeing this one as a negative for this race..  worked up to a 6 then reacted after about 3 weeks off running at 7F poly to an 8.5 then ran another 6 running longer but on turf..  seems to like running further on grass and i will wait til he runs back on turf again.. expecting about an 8.5 effort here flowing with the previous effort and going longer for this race.

2-  automatically stretched out and improved 2nd out which is a great sign.. im expecting a new top but by how much?  il give him about a 2 point projection based on development at best.. so a 6.5 for this one.

3 - 2 point new top on 1st time poly..  really nice colt here and i would give him a pair based on going the distance the first time.  a 6 it is.

4 -  jumped 7 points to a 5 and reacted slightly to a 6.5 with about 3 weeks off and then reacted again with 3 weeks off going the distance.  this horse finally got some well deserved rest and hasnt run that 5 since november..  dont think he will run a 5 but i certainly think he will improve off that 9.5.. so lets give him a 6.5 at best.

5 -  explosive but has a whole lotta points to improve.. il pass

6 -  very fast horse.. BUT improved 2 points after a trainer change and bounced to its worst effort after a month off?  now has 77 days off?  something just seems wrong here to me.  i understand a bounce is a bounce but that 4 really took something out of this horse so i will wait til he circles back another time and proves hes in top shape.

7 -  took 4 tries but finally ran a new top going longer.. dont think that last effort took anything out of this horse and loves the distance..3 weeks off is good timing into the race and hes in the groove to go forward again.. il say a 4-5 effort and 8-1 ML i likeyyy


overall:   7 horse is my pick and the 2,3,4 are under according to analyis.. good luck to everyone!

[Leamas57]

Thanks for that, NYC.

I don\'t have a strong opinion yet, as almost any of these could win. DID and Macis, even Caracortado have my attention so far. I like your Domonation but thining those three make the exacta. AL is a potential spoiler and may able to cruise the field if can handle the extra furlong and a half, so I am with you that he\'s the wild card and probably better bet against.

Leamas.

[nyc1347]

Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks for that, NYC.
>
> I don\'t have a strong opinion yet, as almost any
> of these could win. DID and Macis, even
> Caracortado have my attention so far. I like your
> Domonation but thining those three make the
> exacta. AL is a potential spoiler and may able to
> cruise the field if can handle the extra furlong
> and a half, so I am with you that he\'s the wild
> card and probably better bet against.
>
> Leamas.





Horses that run too fast too early scare me off especially at low odds.  With AL he did get a new trainer and ran a new top but bounced.  How much did that bounce effect this horse?   He ran a FOUR second time out which is FAAAST for a 2 year old so how much can a horse like that develop with 77 days off?  IF the horse runs very well we would naturally expect an improvement better than a 4 right?  a 2 or 3 just doesnt make sense to me here.  a 4 top doesnt make sense off a bounce.. so now we are at a 6 (second best effort) AND hes unproven at this distance.. so another negative factor and unknown at 5-2.  

Just my opinion but, Domo is proven to be the fastest going 2 turns on the Poly and anytime a horse breaks thru a couple points after multiple pairs i usually expect another nice move forward which would make him extremely strong in this race at 8-1 ML.  Within my analysis a pair would even be good enough to win or be very competitive in this race vs. many unknowns.  Notice the thoro pattern as well, it suggests a %57 chance to either pair or run a top according to 161 starts.

[Leamas57]

You have made a good case for DOMO. I can\'t argue with it and will probably bet very little on it.

Take \'em down!

Leamas.

[firmturf]

Someone must have poured a bucket of water on the synthetic surface.

[Flighted Iron]

Santa Anita is slowly becoming a sinkhole for those \"on the road to the derby\".

[nyc1347]

Gross!   can we get another ROTW? =D

[Silver Charm]

A New Low for the Fans!!

[Uncle Buck]

Ever since Frank Stronach signed the dotted line, the \"Great Race Place\" has been completely cursed. Such a majestic place too. Lets form a group and bring back Caliente and enjoy carefree days with warm breezes, good tequila and sexy senioritas!

[bobphilo]

Until they fix/replace the screwed up drainage system underneath they will have problems with whatever surface they lay down over it - dirt, synthetic or moondust. None of the other Cal tracks are having this problem.

Bob

[tmon]

I don\'t think Del Mar or Hollywood are active during the southern California rainy season.

[nyc1347]

for next saturday Feb 13!