Some thoughts about today

[mjellish]

If anyone has heard anything or knows anything that can poke a hole or two in any of this let me know.  Perhaps you can help me save some money.  This track seems to be playing much different than last year.  I heard they are maintaining it different, more water.  Speed seems to be holding much better, but I still think looking for horses with proven synthetic experience is key.  The Euro turf form doesn\'t seem to be transferring as well, probably because the track is playing less like turf.  Based upon yesterday the crowd still seems overly enamored with strong dirt form, which I think is a mistake.  Here are some thoughts based upon that.

Juvenile Turf-
Going with Pounced here.  He\'s been running against much tougher overseas.  6th place finisher in his last came back to win for fun.  Doesn\'t appear to be much early pace in here and I think he has the right running style.  If Gallant Gent takes to the grass he will also be helped by the lack of pace.  Interactif is tough to figure.  Has the best numbers, and by a long way, but his last is so big I have to think that it will set him back some.  You either believe that or you believe you are looking at the best 2 year old grass runner ever, period.  I don\'t look at him that way and I think the tough outside post and cut back in distance will hurt him as well.

Turf Sprint
Weird track configuration at this distance makes all the difference in the world.  Horses have to make a rare right hand turn, then a left, then cross the main track.  So middle posts are best, and proven experience at this track and distance is a big plus.  You could make a case for about 7 horses here.  I am going to key Cannonbal with much of the field based upon his neck loss to Art Connoisseur two races back.  That one is very, very good and would be my bet for sure if he was in this race.  Cannonball also did that on 4 days rest!  The middle post should help him here.  He can sit back and save ground just behind the leaders.  I don\'t think we are going to see another 41 and change half mile in this race this year, which was insanely fast.  As for the others, Noble Court, CA Flag, Get Funky, Gotta Have Her & Desert Code have experience over this track, which should help.  But the far inside and outside posts may hurt a few of their chances as well.

Sprint
Zensational has never had to face a field like this.  He\'s been dominating the CA horses by dictating the early pace and then kicking away.  Now he has to face a field that has several that can throw in a 21 and change quarter.  He\'s never had to face that kind of pressure.  Plus he often breaks slow, and if he does that here he is going to find himself stuck on the inside behind horses, which is something he isn\'t used to.  That spells big trouble, and he may not even hit the board.  I am going to go with Fatal Bullet here.  Proven synthetic form and if he runs back to his best he is going to win easy.  Throw out his race two races back on regular dirt and look at his form that way.  Looks like a great pattern to me.  I know many are touting Gayego, and his 11 1/5 final 1/8th was very fast in the Ancient Title, which he seemed to do all on his own with little to know urging.  I think that race was easy for him, but it should have been.  Who did he really beat sprinting on synthetics?  Crown of Thorns is still eligible for a NW2X.  The numbers would seem to say that he fits anyway.  But in my opinion  Cost of Freedom has just as good a chance to fill the exacta and at much bigger odds.  Same for Capt. Candyman Can.

Juvenile
Very tough to figure this race, but any reasonable horse player has to bet against Lookin At Lucky.  His numbers say he is too slow anyway and even if he moves forward he still has to contend with the #13 post, which is the kiss of death at SA.  D\' Funnybone has no proven form over synthetics, makes his first try at 2 turns and the distance, which is all a lot to overcome.  I\'m going to spread here and make a play focused on keying Aikenite, who is proven at the distance and on synthetics.  2 year old horses often don\'t run on when they get a 4w 5w trip in their first try around two turns.  Yet this one did, and he ran on strongly.  I think that experience plus showing he can overcome a slow start is going to help him here.  I was very impressed with Radiohead\'s last race as well and I am not going to overlook him.  He lost to Awzaan in his last, who is one of the favorites in the future pools over there and very highly regarded.  That was a short race on the grass, and Radiohead was really gobbling up the ground at the end.  He blew by the winner right after the finish and the jock had a hard time pulling him up.  If he transfers his form to synthetics he might hit the board at a big price.

Mile
If Goldikova runs her race she is probably gone again.  I think I remember hearing about the trainer having a virus sweep through his barn this spring, which may explain her lackluster outing first back this year.  And in her last she was much too close to a very fast pace over soft ground, and she still hung on stubbornly for 3rd beaten by a half.  Her race two back was dominating and I see no reason not to expect another big one here.  Normally I would pass the race.  But I think Court Vision is going to run a big one here.  He is like a new horse since having surgery for an ascended testicle back in July.  His pattern screams new top.

Dirt Mile
Pass.  Mastercraftsman looks too tough and too short a price to play.  4 group 1 wins, within a length of Sea The Stars.  Any other year and he would probably be the Euro Champ.  I have no idea what Midshipman is going to do.  Can\'t play him for second and can\'t play against him with confidence.

Turf
Going to take a flyer here on Presious Passion and hope he can wire the field.  The Euros have never seen anything like him.  He could be in front by 10 down the backstretch.  I have a feeling he is going to get gobbled up in the stretch, but what the hell, I\'ve got it won until they pass me.  His figures say he fits and being in front should help him save ground.  For what it\'s worth, I think Spanish Moon has just a good a shot as Condui to win or take second.

Classic
Going to stick with my thought of playing horses that have proven synthetic form and look like they have competitive figs or improving patterns.  For me that means keying Einstein and/or Richard\'s Kid.  Going to toss Quality Road, Regal Ransom, Summer Bird and Mine That Bird from the top 3.  Have no idea what kind of horse Giroloamo is.  AP Indy says distance no problem, neutral to synthetics.  My guess is speed and fade down the lane.  Zenyatta has a shot and the weights are going to help her, but I don\'t think she can go 5w on the turn and make that much ground up against this bunch.  She\'s been facing small fields.  This is a big field with some proven runners, so she\'s no cinch.  Rip Van Winkle is very, very good.  But he is going to be over bet based upon what happened last year.  Raven\'s Pass beat a field of dirt runners and he ran a new top.  This guy has been compromised in his training so I don\'t see a new top coming, and there are horses with proven synthetic form to contend with as well.  So I am going to use Rip and Zen, the two favorites, defensively only.  Gio Ponti has proven he can hold up on synthetics and may get a piece of this at a big price.  Colonel John is probably too slow to win but he has shot at hitting the board.  Twice Over has not been facing the best of the Euros and when he did he got trounced.  Awesome Gem looks too slow to win but could get up for a small piece.

Good luck to all, and may they all get home safely.

[sekrah]

I like alot of these picks..  We\'re on the same side in a few of them.  As well as our exotic underneaths.

I see you had trouble in the Dirt Mile.  Take a peak at Mr. Sidney.  Ran that top at Keeneland last year, has since run a new top on dirt.  May take to the surface.    I think Ready\'s Echo and Furthest Land could also run a 0 or 1 on the poly today, putting them right there with Mastercraftsman


Good luck to both of us.

[drbillym]

Good start mjellish, and thank you for the thoroughly professional analysis.  Will use your thoughts throughout.

[SilkySullivan]

Jellish,
Thanks for showing up.  You are the greatest (next to TGJB). Really appreciate your thoughts.

[Michael D.]

can\'t poke a hole in any of that Michael. i have CCC and Gayego here in the sprint. settled on eskendereya on breeding, and court vision from the 1 hole off what should be a good pace. and richard\'s kid in the big one.

[mjellish]

Have to tell this story because it\'s a good one.  

Had a decent day overall.  Started out hitting the winner and exacta in the Juv Turf, then cashed a 4k super in the Turf Sprint and thought \"Hey, this may be a very good day\".  So as I am filling out my IRS paperwork on the super some 25 year old kid who had been sittng with a group not too far from me comes up and asks what I hit.  He knows we hit the first race and now he sees me cashing the super, so he and his whole group take it upon themselves to start trying to pick my brain before every race.  I swear to god they start asking me about virtually every horse in every race, and I\'m just not signing up for that.  I know it\'s harmless, but it\'s also very annoying.  I did my best stay polite while not really saying much of anything and trying to stay focused on the task at hand over the next few races.

I wind up completely whiffing on the Sprint and the Juv, then just missed the super in the Mile when Court Vision lost the photo for 3rd.  So I\'m sitting there looking at the Dirt Mile and knowing my original thought was that I\'m going to pass this race.  I have no idea if Mastercraftsan is for real or not and I have no idea what Midshipman is going to do.  Meanwhile one of these 25 year old kids comes up and asks me what I think of Pyro.  I decide to tell him flat out that I think Pyro has a better chance of taking last than winning, but he\'s not having any of it.  He just stands there and keeps trying to tout me onto Pyro.  I\'m passing the race anyway so I decide to waste the time explaining a few things to him about why Pyro is a terrible bet.  He disagrees.  When I tell him I am passing the race he challenges me to a side bet.  He takes Pyro.  I can have anyone but the favorite.  I\'m not sure about Midshipman, so I decide to play it safe and take the #2 Furthest Land because he has proven synthetic form, a decent looking sheet and should probably be able to outfinish Pyro.  Pyro winds up finishing last, Furthest Land winds up winning at 20-1 or so and I win my sidebet.  But I have nothing on the horse at the windows, and it turns out that the rest of this guy\'s buddies all walked up and bet Furthest Land, which wound up making their day.  So now I\'ve got to listen to them all thank me and offer to buy drinks and talk about how funny it is that Pyro actually did finish last, and here I am sitting there trying to laugh along with them all the while knowing that I had nothing on that $40 + winner for myself.  Unreal.

It never ceases to amaze me how this game can always seem to find a way to get the best of person.  But what the hell, guess I made someone\'s day.

Watching Presious Passion blister a 45 second opening 1/2 mile in a 1 1/2 mile turf event and nearly hold on anyway at 5-1 with a good chunk of my prior winnings on him was the icing on the \"Tilt\" cake.  I felt like drinking a big glass of sour milk when he got nipped just inside the 1/16th pole by the odds on, repeat winner.  I then followed that up by cashing a $50, saver only exacta on the Classic when neither Einstein nor Richard\'s Kid bothered to show up for the race.  My saver paid a little over 2k, which got me out for the day with about twice as much as I started with.  Not bad, but for the amount of work I put into it definately not worth it.

What was worth it was watching Zenyatta win it all, and the way that she did it.  As horseplayers, no matter what the impact on our wallets, what else can you possibly say but Wow.  I was also very, very impressed by Looking At Lucky\'s race.  Will be interesting to see how he holds up and if his form transfers to dirt.  I suspect Baffert will keep him in CA, and we may not find out until 1st saturday in May if he even makes it that far.

Anyway, just thought I would share the story about the Dirt Mile.  \'Nuther lesson learned.  

Get \'em next year.

[Beginner]

That is hysterical.  I\'ll tell you mine:

Last year, I was at Santa Anita front row up at \"Clocker\'s Corner\" enjoying the sunshine, drinks, the view and of course the racing.  This year?  I was at Fiddler\'s Elbow in the Bronx!! (VERY long story)  That\'s like being at the Mandarin and then the Bates Motel.  Anyway, I hit one race for a decent score and otherwise donated to the win, exacta and tri pools.  So this guy who is half in the bag comes up to me and asks who I like in the Turf.  Like you, I was polite, but mildly annoyed as I was spread out with my TG materials and trying to finalize my bets.  I tell him to go with the repeat angle and the chalk.  Blank stare.  OK, put $5 on a 2/6 exacta box.  So he goes to the window and does it.  

That bet was not in my plans, but having uttered it, I knew I had to bet it even though it was very short.  So fine, I hit the exacta which all things considered, made me pretty happy.  But the funny part is he\'s watching and as Conduit overtakes PP and hits the wire, he immediately rips up his ticket and slurs that the \"f-ing 4 horse won\"  I stopped for a half second as I wear glasses and thought - maybe that was yellow - no way.  Long story short, Moore\'s leg was covering a weird part of the \"2\" so the guy thought it was a 4.  He didn\'t realize the numbers were color coded.  So there he was, picking up half inch mutuel shreds trying to put together his ticket to cash.  I generally don\'t laugh at other people\'s mistakes, but I must admit that it was a pretty hilarious site particularly when he tried to come over and bear hug me.  Yikes!