Scott Lake - Redux

[nicely nicely]

The best part is not bouncing after the jump.

[123]

Nicely Nicely just from reading this board I get the feeling most people think Lake is a great move up trainer. When you look at his stats he only gets 17% new tops first race after trainer change and the average of all trainers is 14%. I know the example above is second time Lake. Is that when he moves them up the most second or third time out?

[TGJB]

At some point when we have time (who knows) we\'re going to go back and look at how we calculate the new top stats. Don\'t remember the criteria, and I don\'t use them myself-- I look more at win and itm%.

[analizethis]

You make a good point. I\'ve always assumed that a discrepancy between good or bad record new tops wise versus win and in the money percentages was a function of a trainers ability to position his stock in a right spot.

I think we see this discrepancy particularly in the \"last ninety day\" line.

[jma11473]

Not for nothing, but Lake\'s \"off the claim\" magic is not what it used to be...maybe he\'s lost his skill to place horses or his owners aren\'t paying for the claims, but he used to be a goldmine at certain tracks off the claim in sprints. He\'s not now.

[TGJB]

Take a look at the first post on this string.

For whatever reason, a lot of his runners seem to do it second time after the switch.

[Rick B.]

Beat me to it.

So many trainers just trot \'em around the track first after the claim now that at least one of the other data providers have added a \"2nd after claim\" stat. Last I looked, Lake\'s win % 2nd out was in the low 30\'s.

[HP]

\"For whatever reason, a lot of his runners seem to do it second time after the switch.\"

Isn\'t this logical?  To deflect suspicion?  If they blast off right off the bat isn\'t that more obvious than waiting and doing it second time out?  this way you can say you did some work on the horse to justify the big move up.

[magicnight]

Also, maybe too many handicappers were wise to the \"1st off claim\" and the prices were getting hurt.

[Boscar Obarra]

Didn\'t something like that happen many years ago with 1st/2nd Lasix?

[imallin]

5th time lasix is one of my favorite angles. ;-)

[jma11473]

Lake 1st after claim in the past year: 23%, 0.77 ROI for each dollar bet
Lake 2nd after claim in the past year: 28%, 0.85 ROI for each dollar bet

My point wasn\'t that he\'s not winning, just that you can\'t make any money on it. I guess that\'s too cynical and bottom-line oriented. I won\'t dispute that he\'s moving horses up, just that everyone knows about it. And to be fair, it used to be more like 35%/1.25 ROI for each dollar bet, so to me it\'s not as blatant as in the past. Third off the claim was amazing too, back in, say, 2003 and 2004.

[jma11473]

Yes, in the past year Lake is 28% winners 2nd off the claim but still a losing proposition from a betting perspective (-15% for each dollar bet) at about the rate of the track takeout---not like five years ago. Sprints are 29% at a a 9 percent loss but used to be a goldmine.

Jerry, I respect you a great deal and not trying to argue your research---my point was more that he used to be 35% winners with a healthy number of 5-1 horses in there and now it\'s all chalk and a lower percentage. You\'re the expert and I\'m not saying he\'s not still doing wondrous things, just that the gravy train is over. I was looking at it from the perspective of a guy who won nice money each year for a decade straight at Delaware because of guys like him, Wolfendale, Pino, etc. and their (alleged) talents. Overall your numbers are the way to go but I\'m supporting a wife and 2-year-old now and I\'m largely a spectator to the game either way. Thanks for the forum.