Any Thoughts on Del Mar's Pick 6???

[Dana666]

Anyone have any ideas? Looks to me like it will likely carry over to closing day on Wednesday. Any strategies or singles worth pursuing??? One of the hardest pick six\'s I\'ve seen the entire meet. If you can get out of the last two races, you deserve the pool just for that! Good Luck if you play, and if you hit it, hire a team of financial planners b/c you\'ll have a hard time spending all that cash in one lifetime! Looks like if anyone wins, it will be a whale spending five figures on the ticket alone. Maybe that fellow who touted Richard\'s Kid should take a stab - he\'s the current king of Del Mar from my p.o.v!

[Dana666]

Del Mar
(Impossible???) Pick Six Rundown
Labor Day 2009 Estimated Pool 2-3 million

Race Five:
2-Exile: Showed some life in debut, very logical contender here.
6-Monolingual: Think he's live for his return, may have matured now - gotta love those awesome Maria\'s Mon offspring.
8-Barbaric: Gelded since last seen when showing very little – good works for return – maybe.
1-Megastar: Solid pedigree, but rail out of chute won't help his chances, probably best to follow later on.

Race Six:
5-Wolf Tail: Huge top in last, any repeat makes her very tough.
7-Grace Upon Grace: May get Gomez a rare stakes win this meet, tries hard.
1-John Scott: Smart debut, no telling how much this one has to offer – Espinoza bailed off Grace which is a little puzzling to me?
2-Tribal face: Nice debut; has promise, later on if not today.

Race Seven:
3-Indian Firewater: Shown enough in debut to consider, can run.
4-Windwalker: Super speed in pedigree, huge long shot potential here for sneaky trainer, 20-1 am line.

Race Eight:
1-Lookin At Lucky: Very professional sort, must deal with rough rail though. Solid so far for Baffert.
7-Sterling Outlook: Will likely clear off turning for home, may get very brave if speed is holding.
2-Zip Quik: Shown talent and heart, but will all the shipping hurt?

Race Nine: Tough Race – No Clue???
Race Ten:  Ditto!???

I have a factor of 24 going into the last 2 races!!! I need 10k to play this one.

[go zags]

Thanks...agree this is a tough card

5) Like your top two but Devil on roof and raise the river also figure imo

6) like your top two

7) good call on the 4 to go with 3.

sterling and lucky

9) hard race - draft choice, ballistic heat?

10) GIlligan, cardiff, cat

tickets too big and too uncertain to play as above.  I\'d have to single a few to spread in races 5, 9 and 10

[major78]

8th Race....

I\'d give Make Music for Me a close look...Tyler up...Closed well at 6 1/2...Looks like value at 8-1 M/L...

That said Baffert will be tough to beat....

[shanahan]

Here\'s some comenteary from Plonk - who writes a very nice handicapping spot on the DMTC web site, along with some horses I believe will run well.  Good luck.

Bottom-level $12,500 claimers square off in Race 9, and this has been a good price situation all meeting. Five of the 8 races this meeting have been won by horses who paid $20 or more to win, and the average winner has been a cool 9-1 price. Joe Talamo has been on fire in these cheap heats, winning 4 of the 8. He'll partner with Beau Smoke, who takes a hefty class drop from the rail.
3,5  9  
   
Maiden claimers try the demanding 7-furlong sprint distance in the Race 10 finale. In the Polytrack era, only 1 of 17 such races has been won by a first-time starter. In fact, 14 of the 17 races have been won by horses who had made 2 or more starts, so a little foundation appears to go a long way.
6,12

[Dana666]

Excellent work, \"Shanahan\", spotting the important info! Only problem is Gilligan #5 clearly had the foundation! He ran the most at Del Mar (3 times) and even worked long after his last race. Stute took the blinks off, and for a guy training as long as he has, any change is significant.
\"Go Zags\" called it pretty well, but, unfortunately, he gave me three, and I only used one of his three excellent picks! It paid an unbelievable 53K - turned out to be much easier than I first thought, but still one of the cheapo races got me - I should have known better b/c I played Gilligan before - I gave up on him too soon, and yesterday I scored with a Mel Stute/Delgadillo horse, so you\'d think I would have used him for that reason alone. I even got out of the horrible 9th by using just 4 and 5. Unreal.

My ticket turned out: 2,6,8,9,10 with 1,5,7 with 3 with 1,7 with 4,5 with 4
$120.00 This was really a 50K gift. I shouldn\'t have kept saying how hard it was - it was a self-fulfilling prophecy. Oh, well, when does Oak Tree start???

[covelj70]

Dana,

For whatever it\'s worth, I love your posts.

You have been all around it in the pick 6 lately, you will hit another big one soon I believe.

I also appreciate how honest you are when you miss, I think that\'s cool.

My approval and a token will get you a ride on the subway but for whatever it\'s worth, I figured I would pass along!

Jim

[Dana666]

Not true, Jim, it means a whole lot to me! You can\'t imagine, really. I\'ve been so down the last year and a half for a lot of reasons, (mostly the consequences of my own personal screw ups in business and personal life) and the smallest compassionate thought or kind word someone offers really makes a huge difference.

If you don\'t think I get down after doing 6 hours of handicapping, trying to leave no stone unturned, and then actually having a good opinion and then cash for 270.00 instead of 53K -- well, obviously you do understand!

Usually when you miss a big one, a little while later, a bigger one comes along, and I would say I\'m due - maybe overdue. I don\'t deserve it any more than anyone else, but you got to think the wheel of fortune has to spin around at some point. A big gambler once told me if you have a good opinion, you\'re better off than being lucky, because eventually you\'ll make more scores based on knowledge rather than luck, so hopefully there\'s some truth in that.

I appreciate your kind words and send them back to you many times over.

[covelj70]

Well in that case Dana, I am really glad I posted the message becasuse I really mean it.

Hang in there, I can see from your work that the big score is right there.

Have an awesome day.

[go zags]

Dana - I missed it too, but you\'re right it wasn\'t that difficult for the 53K.
 
In retrospect, I think what the P6 shows is:
 
You were right about Monolingual

John Scott, though prior number slower than others did overcome a slow start to win and did figure as a good play to move forward.

Why try to beat the horses that should win:  Indian firewater, looking at lucky.

Spreads in the last two with preferences towards good del mar foundations would work.

Lets get it next time. Sorry about Gilligan.  Go zags.

[Lost Cause]

go zags Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Why try to beat the horses that should win:


Last day to get out at DelMar..
Using the quote above it would seem that Halo NAjib in the 7th and Carribean Sunset in the 8th look really good today.  I\'ll single them and spread in the other races of the P4 and P6

[go zags]

LC - Sounds like a plan but Halo Najib scratched, leaving the 1,2,6 and 7 all with a good shot.  In 9th wild promises and gotta have her tough to leave out IMO.
I think I\'ll pass on anything but a small flyer.  Good luck.