Mine That Bird

[miff]

\"I\'m giving the winner a new top no matter what, what difference does it makes whether it\'s 2 or minus 2?\"

Whoa, JB if -2 then several others would have to get pretty big tops tops,like POTN.I\'m aware that you do not make figs solely off the winner but you must admit that fig makers like to see figs \"fit\" Thanks

Mike

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It is possible that the ABSENCE of drugs caused
> the result.

Would training at elevation help a horse at all?

The difference in elevation between Sunland, NM and Louisville is +3200 feet.
 
Just wondering.

[TGJB]

Both drug testing questions are relevant. And yes, the California horses had been running under testing conditions more like the ones Saturday. Have to wonder what the reaction would have been if I discussed this in the seminar-- not that it would have helped. Or even realized it was an issue until I heard details of the testing late in the week. And even then I wasn\'t sure I believed it.

My guess is that the rail helped in terms of ground loss and therefore results, as usual, not in terms of how fast they ran. We\'ll see when I do the day, we\'ll post it as usual.

[TGJB]

Miff-- you don\'t get it.

What I\'m saying is, your assumption that I would give the winner a better figure if it was IWR is wrong because I\'m not going to be \"fitting\" MTB\'s figure no matter what, it can\'t be done.

Of COURSE I\'m going to look at how the figures \"fit\" for all the horses-- that\'s how EVERY serious figure maker works. The only difference is that some try to lump all the races together at the same variant when seeing how they fit, which results in using (at best) the average variant for the day, not the right one for individual races.

I would point out that is particularly crazy on a day like saturday, where a) the track may change speed due to drying out, and b) there is a long time between races. Even if there was no precipitation, variable wind and sun conditions could affect track speed by affecting evaporation and moisture content.

Also, I talked to Andy earlier (he actually called to apologize for taking a shot at us for saying IWR\'s big efforts would take their toll, I said no problem, we talked about the drug issue). He gave the winner 105, obviously not based on the winner any more than mine will be. But here\'s the thing-- if you use the other horses (as you should), think about how much the enormous ground loss in that race can change things. If the average horse was 3w3w or wider, the winner could get 6-9 Beyer points better than he will on TG.

[miff]

JB,

Trust me I get it! Of course you cant fit MTB\'s derby figure because it does NOT fit.If it turns out that you agree with Andy, then MTB ran app TG -1/2 or -3/4, a rather huge 10+ length improvement for the distance.

I had the Rags derby figs for all runners except MTB.Anyone have the Rag figs for MTB going in,curious how slow he was.


Mike

[TGJB]

They had him faster as a 2yo (, slower as a 3yo (10), not getting back to his 2yo top yet.

[miff]

Thanks,Jerry,

That makes it unanimous, MTB, going in,was the slowest winner of the derby in modern history according to the big three fig makers.

He\'s a cinch to win the Triple Crown!


Mike

[David G Patent]

Jerry,

Last year we spent $504 for the 14k because we keyed BB on top.  I am pretty good with risk/reward calculations and hedging, though I failed to adequately hedge yesterday ($5 exacta 16-8 but no box?).

I think that it makes sense to spend a lot on the Derby Super because the overlay is huge when a couple longer shots hit the top 4.

[sighthound]

Is \"1w\" Calvin Borel\'s rail or everyone else\'s rail?

LOL - good point.  I think the \"normal rail\" is about 1 1/2 paths out from the rail, and Calvin\'s running inside of all of them on the damn flat part - look where he comes through.  He did the same thing Friday.  Guy has ice water in his veins.  And he\'s never clipped heels.

[MonmouthGuy]

I noticed the same thing.  Kent D. gave Hold Me Back the exact same too early panic move at the same point in the backstretch that he gave Sweetnorthernsaint in the 2006 Derby, and then was befuddled as to why each horse was done at 8 1/2F.

[jmetro]

Kent D. rode HMB like he was FuPeg, Big Brown or Real Quiet, which of course he isn\'t.  Those Derby winners all had tactical speed, something HMB doesn\'t have, at least not yet.  He should have been coming from where the winner did.

[MonmouthGuy]

Agreed. When you are riding a one run closer, no reason to make that run midway through the backstretch.  He must have thought he was sitting on more horse.

[SoCalMan2]

I lost on this derby just as much as the next guy, but I feel a little heartened by it.

I thought this derby, more than any other, a 50-1 shot could win and I bet it that way.  My only problem is the wrong 50-1 shot won. For example, I thought Join In the Dance could get a pure rail trip and run a 2 or a 3 and that with a super tight 1w 1w somebody overtaking him would have to come up with either an impossibly good trip or run a huge number to beat him.  Also, I thought that Summer Bird (dang, wrong Bird horse), could actually move forward and I noted that his little known jockey had great path stats (not as good as Borel, but better than anybody else) and figured to be on the rail first turn and might be able to pull an upset.  If either of those horses had been the 50-1 upset, I would have hit a $20 exacta and a $2 trifecta and would be crowing that this was my best derby ever.  To a certain extent, I look at Mine that Bird and just say well if he can do it, my 50-1 can do it too one day.  You don\'t need that every year.  Just every once and a while.  

The thing that gets me is that, if Mine That Bird had been something like 85-1, I might have considered using him.  My main problem was that I wanted to choose a longshot and I thought the ones I chose looked better than him for what was basically the same price.  However, if Summer Bird had been 25-1 and Mine That Bird 75-1, then I would have switched \"Birds\"  Oh well!

Here is another question -- is Mine That Bird a case of Synthetic-to-Dirt Jump Up Syndrome?  Maybe the figures at Woodbine could be weighed the way one would weigh I Want Revenge\'s synthetic figures.  If those synthetic figures were all the equivalent of \"5s\" on dirt instead of \"8s\" they were, then maybe  Mine That Bird\'s pattern looks a whole lot better and the jump up not so far-fetched.  If you do look at it that way, then all of a sudden, he looks pretty strong in the Preakness in my view at what might be a pretty good price.

[P.Eckhart]

What set him apart (literally) from any other horse in the race was his first quarter, a matter which was not peripheral to the outcome of this race.

[MonmouthGuy]

I found this article interesting as it dealt with the factor elevation training may have played on MTB\'s aerobic capacity.

What\'s next, IEAH setting up a state of the art training facility in the Adorondacks?


http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/06/mine-that-oxygen-a-vets-take-on-the-derby/