MonmouthGuy: Good luck with your play.

I just don\'t see it with POTN. He hasn\'t shown much improvement on his preferred surface. He will lose a lot of ground based on his PP and the likely race shape---I can\'t imagine him being less than 4W on the first turn. As a result, no matter how well he is training, he will have to move forward in such a dramatic fashion that I think I would need 20-1 to use him personally. He seems to be the definition of an underlay.


Last year, in a field that was probably one of the slowest in recent history, the superfecta--which I know you also hit-- was comprised of 4 of the 7 horses that had run at least a 0.

Maybe this race is more straightforward than it seems.

I am going to key Dunkirk, use FF liberally and play IWR to bounce (off the top line). I will then use some of the longshots that have run fast enough on dirt  to be competitive underneath. A Peace Rules type effort from RR would not surprise me.  The first time dirt horses will have to beat me. The only one I may use is CC in the 3rd or 4th slot.

If it comes up wet FF will become my (and the rest of America\'s) key.

Good luck all.

MonmouthGuy: Good luck with your play.

I just don\'t see it with POTN. He hasn\'t shown much improvement on his preferred surface. He will lose a lot of ground based on his PP and the likely race shape---I can\'t imagine him being less than 4W on the first turn. As a result, no matter how well he is training, he will have to move forward in such a dramatic fashion that I think I would need 20-1 to use him personally. He seems to be the definition of an underlay.


Last year, in a field that was probably one of the slowest in recent history, the superfecta--which I know you also hit-- was comprised of 4 of the 7 horses that had run at least a 0.

Maybe this race is more straightforward than it seems.

I am going to key Dunkirk, use FF liberally and play IWR to bounce (off the top line). I will then use some of the longshots that have run fast enough on dirt  to be competitive underneath. A Peace Rules type effort from RR would not surprise me.  The first time dirt horses will have to beat me. The only one I may use is CC in the 3rd or 4th slot.

If it comes up wet FF will become my (and the rest of America\'s) key.

Good luck all.

April 30, 2009, 09:14:08 PM