???????????

[BB]

That could be a outcome of randomness being tampered with. Now that trainers get to pick their spots (last thirteen years or so?), how many times have they taken good horses out to the aux gate? The one-hole may stay cold until some year where the best horse winds up with the 20th pick.

[imallin]

If the Tri pays over 5k for a buck, that means every dollar in the tri and super pools will be taxed with money being shipped right to Iris.

You have to figure that\'s 40 or 50 million..............times .25.........if my math is correct, 25% of 40 million is.......drumroll please.

ten million bucks heading right out of circulation for the nations throngs of horseplayers in a scant 2 minutes and some small change.

10 million for two minutes work ain\'t a bad gig if you can get it.

The thing i want to know is this. When the US Govt watches the Derby, do they get their voodoo dolls out and stick pins in the favorites?

[Ian Meyers]

And Elliot Walden who uses TG and understands ground loss chose posts 3,4 and 5.  Horses like Dunkirk are giving up on average 6 lengths given the running style and the post.  Pressers from outside post are gigantic underlays be it the 1st Saturday in May or a mile claimer on a 7f grass course.

[alm]

Following Gato Del Sol\'s Derby win, Eddie Gregson explained that he asked a friend with an MIT degree to tell him what path to take from an outside post at Churchill, to minimize ground loss in the Derby.  The friend did the math, not the theorizing one reads here, and told him to tell Eddie Delahoussaye to aim the horse at the first turn and not worry about angling in very gradually to that point from the extreme outside.  

Groundloss was minimal with that approach, no horses impeded his progress and the horse galloped home, coming off the pace, never getting to the rail or near it until late in the stretch.

Subsequent Derbies proved the outside posts don\'t have to be a problem for any running style if a horse is not jerked around the first time down the stretch.  So there\'s much ado about nothing being discussed here, if you ask me.

[TGJB]

Too late for this year\'s seminar, but that\'s a study-- average ground loss for each Derby post position. Ground loss relative to finish position would also be interesting.

[TGJB]

And as long as the other horses get out of your way and let you angle in, that will work fine.

[Ian Meyers]

I don\'t have that data but I can tell you from studies I\'ve done pressers from post 10+ going 2Ts on 8F tracks lose on average 5 paths.  I guarantee it\'s at least that from outside posts in the Derby.  Even a stone cold closer gets the worst of it.  You can\'t exactly cut over 18 paths to tuck in, unless of course you want to drop 20 lengths out of it.

[Uncle Buck]

Ian. Watch Calvin Borel on Street Sense in the \'07 Derby.

[HP]

Then that\'s how you play it ALM - don\'t worry about ground loss from outside posts.  It sure makes the handicapping easier if you throw out this variable.  

\"no horses impeded his progress\"  

this is good.  You can probably assume that here too.  Were there 20 horses in the Gato Del Sol Derby?  Ah, what\'s the difference.  I\'m sure the 20 horses in THIS field will magically arrange themselves so whichever horse you pick will not be impeded.  The horse you pick will probably be fast enough to circle the field and sprint home a winner.  

You can\'t buck MIT!  Who knew the rail wasn\'t the shortest way around the track?  Bunch of dummies on this board...

HP

[Halo Fire]

I can\'t wait.

[TGJB]

It can be done, depending on pace scenario, running style, and rider. Cordero came from last on Cannonade in a 24 horse field without leaving the rail. But that\'s the exception, not the rule.

[TreadHead]

The entire card is now availalbe on equibase, but no odds yet.  Looks like an amazing card, the pick 4 ending in the derby has entries of 11, 9, and 10 leading into the Derby.  Hopefully there will be some live longshots in there to make the payoffs juicy.

Also, in looking at the updated Oaks entries, the wagering menu is there and in addition to the Oaks/Derby double, there is also an Oaks/WRTurf/Derby pick 3.  Very interesting, especially if RA flops.

[Ian Meyers]

Yeah, your right about SS, but it doesn\'t happen much.  And it certainly is not accurately reflected in the odds.  It\'s why my personal ROI in turf routes is so much higher than in every other type of race.

[alm]

Actually your response makes no sense.  

If you are outside and don\'t try to tuck in towards the rail in the first run through the CD stretch you are a lot less likely to encounter other horses.  The implication of the MIT strategy was that the ground loss would be minimal, not non-existant.  You don\'t need a miracle trip like Ferdinand\'s or even Street Sense\'s.  That was the point of Gregson\'s strategy.

And NO, there were not 20 horses in the 1982 field.  There were 19.

[TGJB]

I\'m trying not be harsh, but you can\'t seriously think that a horse starting from 16 has the same chance as a horse starting from 2 of having horses inside him around the first turn, no matter what path he would ideally like to take. Of COURSE if there are no other horses in the way you don\'t lose much ground angling over through a straightaway-- the Greeks knew that long before MIT.