Quality Road - doubtful

[covelj70]

for whatever it\'s worth, I am not going to use him.

Only because of race shapes.  He will have to go around everyone given his running style which makes him 7 or 8 wide at least and running his 0 type number going 8 wide won\'t get him there.

Even if Zayat did give Gomez upfront money to ride POTN, if Dunkirk was a real freak that could overcome the race shape, Gomez would have stayed on.

[toppled]

I don\'t know what I\'m doing.  Since I have him in futures pool 2, I\'m cashing if he recovers all the way & wins.  I also am sitting on a Dunkirk/QR exacta box in pool 3 so I\'ll probably toss him next week & play around with p3s, tris, & supers with others-I want to see final works to see who I might be able to toss among my top 8.  Right now here\'s what I\'m thinking after reviewing the Oaks/Derby package:
These are my contenders, in order of what # I projected them to run based on their sheets, some I\'ll toss for breeding, bad works,etc:

Quality Road-too iffy with the quarter crack, I\'ll be working around him with my futures as the insurance policy on him.  

Dunkirk-I really like his last two races, but I\'m concerned that Gomez chose PTN.  I don\'t think he\'s any worse than a pair of his Florida Derby, may even move forward.  The 1st race # is a toss for me & I\'m not even considering it.  He won by 5 in a slow race, where the 2nd horse came back with much better #s to win 2 in a row, possibly 3 after today.

Friesan Fire-I expect a continuation of his 3yo forward moving pattern.  He has 4 straight races where he\'s improved and Jones has been a master of getting a peak performance in Louisville, even though he\'s faced better horses who were too fast for him to beat for the top spot.  

Win Willy-Even though I projected him to run a similar # to his Rebel, I\'m probably going to toss him unless I go 6-7 deep for 3-4 spots.  I can\'t see him in the exacta.

I Want Revenge-I projected him to bounce further from the Wood #, but if he keeps getting glowing reports from Churchill, I may reconsider.  

Musket Man-I\'ve got him bouncing off the Illinois Derby & I haven\'t seen much encouraging news from Louisville.

Pioneerof the Nile-He\'s the horse who confuses me the most here.  If Gomez had chosen Dunkirk, I\'d feel confident that he\'s too slow. However, here\'s some positive things I see-he just paired his top and figures to have a forward move in him.  The big ? is how much.  I do know he\'s beaten a ton of horses who have run back & won elsewhere.  Right now he could be the class of the field.  I\'m perplexed if class can overcome non-competitive sheet #s.

West Side Bernie-If he pairs he\'s dangerous, I\'m projecting a slight bounce.

Papa Clem-I\'m going bounce off the Ark Derby & only 3 weeks rest. See Gayego.

Square Eddie-His # isn\'t in the package, but I saw someone on another board have his Lexington as a rounded 6 on a matrix that rounded the last 3 race TG #s. Now the fact he paired a top # significantly faster in January gives me pause before I can eliminate him.  Also, if PTN is the class, how much class do I give SE, who has already beaten him twice as a 2yo? I\'ll be watching the Welsh reports carefully on this guy.

Regal Ransom-His last race could have him sitting on an explosive move forward.  He\'s really working well & Garcia sticks, unlike his stable mate\'s jockey who isn\'t making the trip.

My current top 5,without Quality Road, in order taking everything into account, not just the #s:
Friesan Fire
Dunkirk
Pioneerof the Nile
Regal Ransom
Square Eddie

[TGJB]

I would like to know what McKinlay said about BB AT THE TIME.

[miff]

One hour ago:


When Jerkens was asked how confident he was that Quality Road would be able to run in the Derby, he said, "The way things are going, I'm pretty confident. I\'m usually pretty negative, but the way he has responded (to treatment), from what Ian is saying, and the fact that there hasn't been any weight-bearing soreness, (makes me confident). (The quarter crack) shouldn't affect him at all if he comes out of the work without a problem."
 
Jerkens admitted that he was somewhat surprised by Quality Road's recent quarter cracks, since he never had any problems with his hooves before the Florida Derby. He said the colt has unusually small feet, \"especially for a horse of his size,\" but believes the cause of the problem is likely hereditary.

[slewzapper]

Quality Road? Small feet?



Curious if anyone here has anything to add regarding this - the synthetic to dirt issue is on everyone\'s plate, but all dirt tracks are not created equal, some horses have not liked CD - eg. Skip Away

[TreadHead]

I asked this question previously and was basically laughed off the board for asking it.  It would seem to me, no matter how minor an impact something like this might be, the fact that it is indeed hard data would certainly mean it wouldn\'t hurt to know.  Whether you choose to do anything with the data is up to the handicapper, but IF there really is some correlation here it would be nice to know if the data supports it.

[TGJB]

What you mean is that Skip Away and some other horses haven\'t run well at CD. Not the same.

[slewzapper]

Then I stand corrected - still interested if anyone has comments, other than the obvious...\"we don\'t have quantifiable data, therefore it\'s irrelevant\". I\'ve already thought that one up.

\"How is the horse going to run today?\" A bounce can have many explanations.

Nice run by Mr. Fantasy. Like the tune played before the replay!

[26mulvilled]

For what it\'s worth, some comments attributed to McKinlay last year regarding Big Brown\'s quarter crack issues...

Said McKinlay: \"Unless I make some boneheaded move this will be a walk in the park.\"– Dave Grenig DRF article on 5/25/08

"It's picture perfect," said McKinlay. "This was a minor, minor injury — on the scale of 1 to 10, this was maybe a 3. He was healed two days ago. Things couldn't be better. It's time for history." – Joe Drape article in the NY Times on 6/7/08

\"I\'ve been reading where people are saying they think this jeopardizes him, but that is absolute nonsense,\" said McKinlay. \"Big Brown has had just a slight, slight crack. Now he is perfect. The foot is cool. We have him exactly where we want him.\" – Ray Kerrison article in the NY Post 6/3/08

McKinlay said Quality Road's quarter crack was far less severe than the ones which affected Big Brown and Touch Gold.

"Compared to Big Brown, this is a nice picnic in Central Park," said McKinlay.– Paul Moran's blog 4/25/09

[Sandreadis]

zapper,  Hansel is another great horse that did not run well in the Derby,finishing 10th before winning @ pimlico and Belmont. Interestingly though, Hansel ran in the Jim Beam stakes at Turfway prior to the Derby. He smashed the track record @ 9f. Several other track records were set that day. The track was skimmed and hard and I believe this contributed to Hansel\'s poor Derby performance.
Fast forward to 2009. Florida Derby day,track records broken. Pletcher complains about the surface being hard and fast. QR ends up with quarter cracks shortly after the race. This is an interesting angle that has not been discussed much. Could Dunkirk also be affected by these track conditions?
I was curious if any horses had run back from that FD day? JoJo ran poorly at Kee at 4/1. Any other examples??

[BB]

Sand - Hansel also ran away with the Lexington two weeks after his win in the Beam and two weeks before the Derby. An example, I\'d think, of a horse that had a reason not to run well at any track that day, not just at CD (such as Holy Bull in the Derby). But I\'m sure there are also examples of horses who figured to run well their first time at CD - Hollywood Wildcat in the BC might be an example - and didn\'t, perhaps because it is \"a funny old track\", as Eddie D said in the post-race interview that day.

But, yeah. All those fast races at GP are a concern re QR. Although, This One\'s for Phil ran pretty well today (with some trouble), and he ran a hard race on the FD card. Not sure about others running back from that particular day.

[richiebee]

Nice horses we are breeding, that Mr. McKinlay, an artist who works with piano
wire and fiberglass, is a major player in 2 consecutive Derbies.

The danger in comparing Quality Road and Big Brown\'s Derby chances is that BB
(going into the race and retrospectively) did not face the depth of competition
that Quality Road will in 6 days. (my opinion). Another way of saying that is
that BB could have (and did) win the Derby while something less than fully
cranked; I do not think QR will have that luxury.

In an unrelated matter, a poster said they had a sentimental attachment to
Freisan Fire because they would like to see the Cowboy, Larry Jones, ride off
victorious into the sunset. My feeling on this is that LJ takes a short break,
and then returns as a private trainer responsible for a much smaller string,
maybe for an outfit such as Winstar, Godolphin/Darley or even the Iavarone
Exudes Amazing Hypocrisy stable.

Speaking of Sheik Mo, if his 2 runners in this years Derby fail to have an
impact, is it wrong to suggest that maybe he reevaluate Operation Desert Derby
Prep?

[Silver Charm]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice horses we are breeding, that Mr. McKinlay, an
> artist who works with piano
> wire and fiberglass, is a major player in 2
> consecutive Derbies.
>
> The danger in comparing Quality Road and Big
> Brown\'s Derby chances is that BB
> (going into the race and retrospectively) did not
> face the depth of competition
> that Quality Road will in 6 days. (my opinion).
> Another way of saying that is
> that BB could have (and did) win the Derby while
> something less than fully
> cranked; I do not think QR will have that luxury.
>
> In an unrelated matter, a poster said they had a
> sentimental attachment to
> Freisan Fire because they would like to see the
> Cowboy, Larry Jones, ride off
> victorious into the sunset. My feeling on this is
> that LJ takes a short break,
> and then returns as a private trainer responsible
> for a much smaller string,
> maybe for an outfit such as Winstar,
> Godolphin/Darley or even the Iavarone
> Exudes Amazing Hypocrisy stable.
>
> Speaking of Sheik Mo, if his 2 runners in this
> years Derby fail to have an
> impact, is it wrong to suggest that maybe he
> reevaluate Operation Desert Derby
> Prep?


RB just assume QR is fine and fully cranked. You point about this being a much much better field is spot on. So if BB was 2-1 then is 4-1 on QR a bargain? Doesnkt sound like one.

Larry Jones almost hinted he wouldn\'t be gone for long. A job with a Goldolphin has its plusses (plenty of good horses and I\'m sure pay) and its minuses (as soon as some get good they may be gone to Dubai).

Af far as Sheik Month changing his ways. Its his money and he can do what he wants with it.

So No

[Silver Charm]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice horses we are breeding, that Mr. McKinlay, an
> artist who works with piano
> wire and fiberglass, is a major player in 2
> consecutive Derbies.
>
> The danger in comparing Quality Road and Big
> Brown\'s Derby chances is that BB
> (going into the race and retrospectively) did not
> face the depth of competition
> that Quality Road will in 6 days. (my opinion).
> Another way of saying that is
> that BB could have (and did) win the Derby while
> something less than fully
> cranked; I do not think QR will have that luxury.
>
> In an unrelated matter, a poster said they had a
> sentimental attachment to
> Freisan Fire because they would like to see the
> Cowboy, Larry Jones, ride off
> victorious into the sunset. My feeling on this is
> that LJ takes a short break,
> and then returns as a private trainer responsible
> for a much smaller string,
> maybe for an outfit such as Winstar,
> Godolphin/Darley or even the Iavarone
> Exudes Amazing Hypocrisy stable.
>
> Speaking of Sheik Mo, if his 2 runners in this
> years Derby fail to have an
> impact, is it wrong to suggest that maybe he
> reevaluate Operation Desert Derby
> Prep?


RB just assume QR is fine and fully cranked. You point about this being a much much better field is spot on. So if BB was 2-1 then is 4-1 on QR a bargain? Doesnkt sound like one.

Larry Jones almost hinted he wouldn\'t be gone for long. A job with a Goldolphin has its plusses (plenty of good horses and I\'m sure pay) and its minuses (as soon as some get good they may be gone to Dubai).

Af far as Sheik MO changing his ways. Its his money and he can do what he wants with it.

So No

[Silver Charm]

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090426/SPORTS08/90426004/Kentucky+Derby+hopeful+Quality+Road+bleeds+slightly+after+workout+