These posts are driving me nuts.

[Wrongly]

Am I the only one having a problem with the figures for the Wood.  Beyer, Bris, and TG have both WSB and JaC running lifetime tops.  THe figure on WSB is particularly bothersome since that number makes him a slight contender at a big price?  The flip side is if the timing was off then IWR bounced more than we are led to believe.

[MonmouthGuy]

There were a lot of similar comments about the TG numbers given to the Wood runners last year, specifically Tale of Ekati, Court Vision and Anak Nakal.

There was a pretty good discussion about the Wood since TG had the 2008 Wood  way faster than Beyer did. As a result, certain folks in here used Take of Ekati, who at 43-1 was one of the biggest overlays on the board (especially considering that his stablemate Big Truck who had no chance was 25-1), to add value to the superfecta.

There was no way to use ToE based on his Wood Beyer.


http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,42221,42258#msg-42258

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- Cushion is effectively dirt. Personally, I think there were other reasons for the dramatic improvement.

[TGJB]

Not one of those people or anyone else has ever been paid to endorse TG. We have given free data to people who endorsed us, but obviously, it wouldn\'t be a good deal for them if they didn\'t believe what they were saying.

Most famous opening of a TG seminar ever, at GP a few years ago:

\"Hi everybody, I\'m Vic Stauffer, track announcer here at Gulfstream. Today is Florida Derby Day, our busiest day of the year, and there are a million things I would rather be doing than stand up here talking to you people. But I get these things free, and I want to continue to\".

[TGJB]

\"Foot\"-- you\'re a Maryland guy. Boy, would I like to have that info on the sheet.

The answer is it depends on the synth. Cushion = dirt, Pro-Ride = turf, Poly and the others range somewhere in between, depending on the track. It\'s a mess.

[TGJB]

Dana-- there is absolutely no problem in making figures over Pro-Ride-- that\'s an entirely different issue than figuring out who will handle it first time over it. Yes, synthetic tracks change speed more than dirt tracks-- that\'s exactly why you need figures.

I actually don\'t know how the guys doing the handicapping for SA have been doing, I\'ll try to find out when Alan comes in. I do know a) there are guys absolutely killing that place using our figures (one of them posts on this board occasionally), and b) that Roger Neubauer, with the modest assistance of yours truly, won the Santa Anita handicapping contest this year, after doing the same in the Hollywood contest last year (one Pro-Ride, one Cushion).

If I had a dollar for every time I heard someone say that you can\'t have as good an opinion just using data as someone who knows the physical horse... up to about 1995. If there is one opinion in this game that has been thoroughly discredited, it is that one. No-one is saying that using accurate performance figures is the only thing that matters, but it is by far the most important one. As I have said here many times, the single most important handicapping decision you make is what data to use.

[girly]

Direct and honest, how refreshing!

[David G Patent]

Superstar trainer Bill Mott also kept Cigar on turf for two years.

[jimbo66]

Hard to make a definitive call on Pioneer of the Nile and feel good about it.  I would bet dollars to donuts that TGJB tosses him in the seminar because he is too slow and breeding suggests he won\'t move up the way IWR did (and others).

The truth is that none of us know how he will handle dirt.  Educated guesses, yep.  POTN has drawn more attention on this board than any other horse, which is kind of ironic since he is one of the absolute slowest on Thorograph and this is a thorograph board.  Since none of us know he will handle the dirt, There are some POTN lovers out there and some POTN haters and those people with hard opinions aren\'t going to change.  But I would say that if you don\'t have a steadfast opinion on this horse, you just have to let the odds guide your decision.  What is fair value for a horse that looks way too slow on TG, too slow on Beyers and about \"average\" on Rags.  YOu get a top triple crown trainer and a jockey that many say is the best or at least in the discussion.  But the horse has to run on the dirt for the first time and get faster to win, on anybody\'s numbers.  5-1 is way too short IMHO.  10-1 is a little short for my taste, but I wouldn\'t argue with anybody who thought it was \"fair\".  15-1 seems about right to me and I don\'t think you get anywhere near that price.  I thought he would be 9-1 or so, but based on the workouts and press he is getting, 6-1 would be how I set the line right now.  It just doesn\'t seem like fair value to me.

[Dudley]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hard to make a definitive call on Pioneer of the
> Nile and feel good about it.  I would bet dollars
> to donuts that TGJB tosses him in the seminar
> because he is too slow and breeding suggests he
> won\'t move up the way IWR did (and others).

I\'ve made my decision on him jimbo. I will play POTN undnerneath in the exotics out of respect for a)the unknown- dirt, shipping, Derby madness and b) the known- his Graded Stakes Class, Baffy, and Bloodlines. If he wins- I lose. I can live with that.

[David G Patent]

I have him pegged at around 8:1 as fair price, so count me as slightly more bullish on him than many on this board but no way he is a Win bet on Derby Day.  He\'ll be on my Super tickets, though!

[Flighted Iron]

I really didn\'t know it was a \"Maryland\" thing,but yes a marylander I am.Back in
the hey-days there was a big cigar(both man and cigar)smoking jock agent who\'d
come back from the paddock with the data.A bit naive I was to it all,but considering the data cruncher in wait of the \"foot\" results,in retrospect I\'ve
learned the value of the endorsement.A \"mess\" is pretty much the same feedback
I\'ve felt from good company.

  Thanks,
    mjs

[TGJB]

The cigar smoking jock agent was Joe Monahan, one of our original trackmen, and one of the great racetrack characters. They don\'t make\'em like that any more.

[Flighted Iron]

Small world.Al Del always had a smile when talking about the man who had his
book.

[Dana666]

All good points! I was wondering about many of the things you bring up. The \"pulling\" is of issue - like everything else w/this horse you could read it different ways - the pace was really slow in those races and the track speed biased, so Go-Go had to let him run earlier than he wanted thus explaining why he seemed a bit uncomfortable at times and out of his game. The fact that his maiden race was 2 turns on grass doesn\'t scream triple crown type either though I could take a positive view that they sent the horse to Baffert b/c he showed some promise, but also you could say that he\'s a grass horse and since Pro-Ride plays something like grass, and the comp. is usually weaker out there, why not try the SA races, and even if he flops in the derby you can always run on grass later and look how much he\'s earned already - even though its Zayat - it\'s still a lot of money - this really is a tough read. As far as baffert, he has figured out the synthetic surfaces as best he could and has done much better in the last 6 months say than he had for a few years; his barn seems to be on an upswing. If you put any stock in CD workouts, POTN supposedly worked terrific yesterday and looked fine over the slop on Monday. We\'ll all know for sure around 6:15 Pm on May 2end! My saver is to box all the California horses in exotics - Mr Hot Stuff, POTN, IWR, Papa Clem, and CC -- there\'s some value in that equation however you slice it - just a theory that the east coast horses are over-rated this year - we\'ll see. Freisan Fire is the wild card I suppose, but I can\'t take a horse off such a long layoff - not for me going a mile and quarter. The Dubai horses will need to prove it to me that they can compete in the Derby, so far that route hasn\'t paid off - but there\'s always a first time. Good luck to all - I\'m getting weary with this discussion now. Hope I didn\'t offend Jerry - I didn\'t mean too. Thought I had a legit question - doesn\'t really matter I guess - in my book whoever cashes had the best opinion.