Mike Smith to ride Chocolate Candy

[jimbo66]

Aj,

That was Miff on the psychology of a horse getting turned back.

I have trouble with human psychology, let alone horses.....

Agreed that Dunkirk persevered past the wire and came back a more tired horse.

As the race may be shaping up, with several speed horses not running (pamplemouse and Old fashioned), it is starting to look like a little less early speed will be in the race than had been expected.  I think this makes Quality Road very tough, if he breaks well from the gate.

Quality Road, sitting second, chasing a hopeless longshot (The dubai winner) is a nice trip.

[Old Mr. Boston]

If Dunkirk did make a small move forward in the Florida Derby, that combined with the impressive acceleration around the turn, make him the most likely winner in my book. That being said, I wouldn\'t take less than 7-1 on him (or for that matter on anyone) in the Derby. Fortunately, they take bets on exotics.

[richiebee]

Silver:

I think SS was much the best; the rail skimming Bo-rail ride may have just
padded the margin of victory.

Ferdinand-- The Shoe puts on one of the great Derby rides in history, but even
he admitted that if he didn\'t get through it may have been considered one of
the worst.

[SoCalMan2]

I think this is a worthwhile topic to follow more and did an absurdly quick survey in the archives.  Here are some random anecdotes I found; would make for interesting debate me thinks --

2008 -- Recapturetheglory ran a better fig than either of Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati and probably would have broke into the superfecta or trifecta with a slightly better trip.  Agree or disagree?

2007 -- Sedgefield was the rail skimmer and completed the Pentafecta (nevermind it still was not created yet) beating the likes of Circular Quay, Tiago, and Any Given Saturday all of whom ran better figs than not only him (Sedgefield) but also Imawildandcrazyguy who clunked into the superfecta over these better efforts. (n.b. Circular Quay actually ran the third best figure in the race behind Street Sense and Hard Spun and a smidgen ahead of Curlin).

2006 -- Bluegrass Cat and Steppenwolfer beat Brother Derek out of the Exacta and the Trifecta even though Bro Derek runs the significantly better fig.

2005 -- Very interesting year.  Smith wins his Derby in the same year as a terrible terrible bad rail.  Check out the figs of horses that ran in either the one path or the two path.  They all ran significantly worse numbers than one would have expected and got the \"X\" designation.  One could say that it figures these are the conditions where Smith excels nowadays (I have nothing against the guy -- I only try to predict in a race where his horse is going to be and his current riding tendencies factor into that analysis).

2003 -- Sheets make clear that Empire Maker ran better than Funny Cide but that Funny Cide got the better trip -- agree or disagree?

This one will be painful for TGJB, but according to the sheets, Victory Gallop ran a significantly better figure than Real Quiet but had the worse trip.  

Also, query whether Ladies Secret did not get home first due to the 1w 1w and 5 pounds off?

[P-Dub]

They won because they were the best horse,  not because of a spectacular ride.

Fu Peg was the favorite, was 4 wide on the turn, and won by a couple lengths.

Ferdinand was 4 wide on the turn, after straightening out Shoe had 2 choices. Take him outside 2 more paths or dive to the inside and come up an opening along the rail. Ferdinand got the lead inside the 1/8 pole and held that advantage to the wire. He didn\'t come up the rail on the turn,  he got the rail well after turning for home.  He was the best horse.

Look, rides are important.  All I\'m saying is that the \"trip\" is overrated.  Find the best horse. The 3 you mentioned would have won regardless of whatever trip you think they may have received. If you can only come up with 3 examples, horses which figure to win anyway,  I\'m only suggesting that the trip isn\'t as important as you think.

[P-Dub]

I was referring to winners,  I\'m sure you can find horses that finished ITM that had good trips. You can probably find horses that were 1W or 2W and didn\'t finish so well.  Running 1W or 2W does not guarantee a better finish.

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That was the point of my post -- I doubt if
> Giacomo wins the 2005 Derby without the wide trip.

Duh, sorry Rick.

> What good is saving ground if you end up trapped
> behind a wall of puking speed horses, and can\'t
> get out?

Thats all I\'m saying.

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

Take another watch of that derby.  Have to disagree with you.  I think if SS had to go wide on the far turn, Hard Spun wins the race.  Hard Spun ran a huge race that day.  SS beats the rest without the railskimming ride, but I don\'t believe he beats HArd Spun.

[miff]

AJ,

Gallop outs are over rated. Some horses are very smart and shut down immediately by design, others by exhaustion.

Was not solely referring to any type mental scar for Dunkirk but also that he laid his body out there totally and his body may not have been ready for that taxing an effort.

Don\'t know if that will hurt him but I can\'t see it helping.


Mike

[richiebee]

Jim:

It would be hard for me to get behind this theory because I believed that HS
was best suited for shorter distances than those he ran in the Triple Crown
races.

That being said, and contradicting myself--

1) He ran his guts out in all 3 legs of the Crown, and

2) If held out of the Preakness, and ridden properly in the Belmont, he had a
chance to win the 1-1/2 Belmont wire to wire as a fresh horse.

Gotta get back to work, which there is plenty of after a recent spate of
layoffs; if I get laid off in the next round I\'m going to see if JB would be
interested in hiring me as the world\'s oldest (unpaid) summer intern.

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

It never pays to debate old news, but my theory is based on math.  He won by two lengths with a 1w/1w trip.  As a drop to last closer, that is pretty much unheard of that he gets that trip.  Give him a standard 2w/3w trip, which is reasonable for a closer in a 20 horse field and he loses.  

Good luck with the job and with the job application at Thorograph.  I think you have a better shot with a newspaper column though......

[Lost Cause]

Just another testament to what others think about Mike Smith...He lost the mount on Stardom Bound to Gomez according to the Daily News.

[congaree1]

I have no problem with Smith, in fact I have cashed a lot with him. Gomez lost the other day because he waited and was wide with Ventura. I never get hung up on jocks,It\'s all about the horse with me. Gomez does loose 75% of the time he mounts. Gomez is in a great situation, he has a great agent and gets mostly ML favorite. IMO, good horses make jocks and trainers look good. The only thing I look as is how hard they ride to the finish and Gomez is very good at that.

[P-Dub]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just another testament to what others think about
> Mike Smith...He lost the mount on Stardom Bound to
> Gomez according to the Daily News.

Gomez named to ride Stardom Bound in Oaks

IEAH Stables has tabbed Garrett Gomez as the new rider for STARDOM BOUND (Tapit) in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on May 1. The reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey will replace Hall of Famer Mike Smith aboard the champion two-year-old filly.

\"This is by no means a firing of Mike Smith,\" IEAH\'s Mike Iavarone said. \"Mike has obviously done a great job on the filly. This is related to the long-term picture in that Mike is committed to Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]). With the idea of Stardom Bound eventually meeting up with Zenyatta, we wanted a new rider who get acquainted with Stardom Bound now. There was the opportunity to get Garrett aboard Stardom Bound now, and we\'re grateful for the work Mike has done aboard the filly in the past.\"

Stardom Bound, who sealed championship honors with a 1 1/2-length win in the Breeders\' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), reeled off six straight Grade 1 victories before having her string snapped with a third in the Ashland S. (G1) on April 4. She opened 2009 with victories in the Las Virgenes S. (G1) and Santa Anita Oaks (G1) and will bring a lifetime mark of 8-5-2-1, $1,820,600, into the Kentucky Oaks.

Her ultimate goal is the Breeders\' Cup Ladies Distaff (G1), which will be held at Santa Anita in early November. That is also the goal of unbeaten champion mare Zenyatta.


Way to keep it in perspective Lost. Don\'t let the facts get in the way of the hate.

Good point from Congaree.  Seems some jocks get a pass when running wide.  Notice how when you\'re on the best horse,  most jocks tend to take them wide for a clear run??  Smith is hardly the only one that does this.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

I would make it 50/50 at best that Zenyatta and Stardom Bound meet this year and if they do, it will likely not be until the BC Distaff in November.

Do you really think they are pulling Mike Smith off the horse for the Kentucky oaks in May, so that Garrett Gomez can get used to the horse for a November matchup?  

If you do, I have swampland for you.

I am not killing Smith here, just commenting that the IAEH comments don\'t ring true, at least not to any logic I can come up with.

I think the facts (based on TG paths statistics) point to there being truth to the point that SMith rides wider than many of the top name jockeys.  I don\'t want that ride on dirt or turf.  Poly seems to be ok.  And Smith is tough on frontrunners.  

As gamblers who bet into pools that pay his salary, we are allowed to root for him, criticize the hell out of him, or worship him.

And you can defend him.