Mr. Fantasy and the Gotham

[Silver Charm]

MF balked at the first load and was a little washy. The Connections sounded confident, TGJB sounded confident but it is horse racing and the guys here can\'t be right every week. Can they?

The Day IWR ran, last time out, was a controversial day in my opinion. I jsut think the Beyers assigned were way too slow.

Matto Mondo runs back today so does Cowboy Cal and Stardom Bound. They are all at the same place so everything is relative.

But when they ship East we results like this today and the answer always is, \"Horses move up when going from Synthetic to Dirt\"

Maybe they just ran the same race they always do......

[jimbo66]

He will get the \"huge new top\" on TG, but this is becoming almost passe.  \"Slow california shipper with slow synthetic figs comes east and runs a new top. I am not saying it was easy to take 3-1 on I Want Revenge, but I would have taken 1 to 5 that the \"6\'s\" were going to look \"wrong\" after this race.  There is just no way to relate those synthetic figures to dirt.

He got a much better trip than one would have expected based on the race shape,and the naysayers will say the fractions were slow on a day that seemed to favor speed at a quick glance.  But I think he is legit, although I will admit a bias as I have about 10% of the Derby futures pool on him, at 55-1.  

Last point. I would not assume this moves up Pioneer of the Nile.  As opposed to I Want Revenge who has dirt breeding and a dirt stride (I am told), Pioneer of the Nile seems to be a turf/synthetic horse and I would not look for the same \"move up\" when he runs on the dirt.

[Flighted Iron]

IWR\'s dam\'s sire has 125+ stakes winners to his credit.The slightly watered
down API topside doesn\'t hurt either.

mjs

[high roller]

Yes but the real question will be if Jerry will admit he is wrong on the \"6\" for him. Or will he do a cursory review and claim that the data is \"solid\".

Remember as Jerry often says, you get one number wrong and then you compound the mistake over and over, SHADES OF BORREGO!

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo your best post ever.

High Roller it was a new top. Einstein ran much slower I am hearing. Maybe 2 points and 6-8 on a Beyer Scale.

[miff]

Regardless of the modest pace, IWR separated from the field running the last 5/16ths in app 30 seconds, the sign of a special horse.Question now is does he have the resiliency to sustain/improve on that type of performance in his next two starts.

His top will look ridiculous but he may have been several points faster going in. Nevertheless, that was the best dirt 2 turn derby prep so far.

Monster Prelim Beyer 113, app neg -3 TG if they agree.

Mike

[jimbo66]

To me, this is different than the occasional figure where JB will be monitoring a figure he made where it \"could have gone a different way\".  He has commented here before on how he will go back and look at some of the less solid days as horses come back to race in their next starts.  This seems to be a scale issue.

Look at the Beyer fig for Mr. Fantasy\'s last start compared to I Want Revenge\'s last start.  A 93 for Mr. F. vs a 92 for I Want Revenge.  On TG they were a 0 and a 6.  So, you figure maybe the difference on TG is due to ground loss.  Wrong, actually the ground loss makes the figures FURTHER APART.  Mr. F was 1w/3w his last race, while IWR was 3w/3w.  That means the six points more like seven points difference.  Does anybody really believe that Mr. Fantasy last race was 7 points faster than I want Revenge?  Considering Mr. F. went off at 2-1 and I Want Revenge went off at 5-2/3-1, not many people did believe that.  

I have no doubts that I am using the best data available (TG)O when I am handicapping a dirt track where the horses are mostly dirt horses, or handicapping a turf race where the horses have previous turf figures, but we are seeing too many of these synthetic to dirt \"WTF figures\" to feel confident about how to use them and how to adjust your handicapping.

[Michael D.]

"We were second-best, even though we didn't get second," McLaughlin said. "If (I Want Revenge) doesn't ship east, we win by five."

Kiaran, if Mr F can\'t hold off a closer for 2nd after setting :23.3 and :48.2 fractions over the inner-tube, you either need to do your job better, or you need get the colt back in NY bred races. Shugs\'s colt just ran by your charge like he was running backwards. Taqarub also stopped like he was shot. Both of these colts are bred to get at least 1m or 1 1/16.

Now stop making excuses Kiaran, and get both of these colts back on track.

[ronwar]

I do not think it is just the synthetics.  TG California figures have always ran slower as has been discussed and rebuffed before.  The addition of synthetics in California may have just exacerbated it.

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,24349,24349#msg-24349

[bobphilo]

"We were second-best, even though we didn't get second," McLaughlin said. "If (I Want Revenge) doesn't ship east, we win by five."

I\'ve always respected McLaughlin as a horseman but this remark is just stupid. He must think that 2 horses who happen to be running near each other are \"dueling\", no matter how slow they\'re going. Nonsense.

Bob

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I agree about Pioneer. He already ran on a dirt-like track (Cushion at Hollywood) and did not run that well.

Off the top of my head I can come up with Monterey Jazz, Black Seventeen, and the Baffert filly that won the Beldame as horses who ran huge and got a huge top on our figures going synth to dirt, but I know there are others-- I would appreciate hearing of any others that anybody remembers, I\'ll post the sheets. If the figures were wrong-- meaning that those horses were not really running a big new top-- it seems likely that many of them would run back to that figure again, at least on dirt if not synth. But most (and maybe all) have not. Most have immediately fallen apart, and either not run again or not run any good again. Which lends credence to the idea that these are actually huge jump-up performances.

Anybody want to bet me I Want Revenge doesn\'t finish in the top half of the field in the Derby? If he doesn\'t make it to the gate I win.

[Silver Charm]

Where do Heatseeker (Oaklawn Cap) or Gayego (Ark Derby) and Arson Squad (Meadowlands Cup) fit into there?

Or was the latter first time Dutrow.

[jimbo66]

JB,

I\'ll take the bet on I Want Revenge.  You name the stake.

[miff]

JB,


You are completely dismissing the possibility that the CALI tops may not be as severe as your data has indicated. Maybe, just maybe, you have the Cali circuit too slow going in. Beyer and Rags did not have any of the horses you mentioned (and this one) as slow, scale to scale, going in.How come?

You had Russell Road much faster than IWR going in.He was off at 20-1 and got beat a pole.

Giant Ryan OFF AT 80-1 was only marginally slower than IWR going in, dead last, beaten off(one race fig sprint admittedly)

The point is that these huge new \"tops\" do not reconcile overall and lack common racing sense.Do you see any other possiblity for this?

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- just addressing the initial comment, read my post again. It\'s directed at that exact point. If it was not a huge top, as you suggest is possible, horses would be likely to run back to run back to that figure, if only on dirt.