Will the sunshine get the old bear to come out of hibernation for the ROTW?

[derby1592]

Looks like an interesting race.

First the areas in the ROTW that I agree.

The Judge Sez Who is a top contender. He has a nice line but is really over raced with 10 starts from June-Dec. That is a lot of starts even for a claimer. He has been getting more time between races lately and the pace and post are to his advantage.

Best of the Rest is fast and consistent but is also coming in off a negative fig and will likely lose ground as was pointed out in the ROTW. Definitely the horse to beat but he could run something close to an effective 2-3 in this race, which makes him vulnerable.

Saint Marden is fast and the one most likely to run a new top even off the bench but the post and pace will hurt him. I expect a torrid pace and he is likely to be very fresh and eager off the layoff. He could get sucked up in quick fractions or fight the rider. He also could lose ground early. A contender but some question marks.

Continental Red is consistent but his top is slow for this race and he will get over bet.

Booklet is likely to get cooked and is probably a few months away from another good effort.

Now for the areas where I disagree:

Nothing Flat\'s line looks weak to me. He is fast but his last 2 are pretty dull. Maybe it was the north-south ship in the last one but I want to see another race before I play him. I have a hard time believing a Zito horse will go off at 20/1 anyway.

Sir Bear is an old geezer but he loves GP and looks to be coming around to a good race. His last was not an effort but it was his best since July. In each of the last 2 years, he has come out and run big races in his first start at GP. He also gets reunited with Prado who was on board for his last big win. He draws an inside post and should be able to save ground and the likely hot pace will be to his benefit. If he has another 1-2 range fig left in him (and I think he might), he could score a big upset for the senior citizen crowd.

Looks like good cards at both GP and SA.

Good luck to everyone.

Chris

[Two Bucks]

With the probable fast pace, Grey Memo could run another sub zero like he did at Del Mar. As I recall that race was a ROTW too and the analysis liked him at a good price.

And if Island Skipper can pair up his last race (and \"first time Zito\" is a dangerous angle) he could pop at a big price, especially if he can save ground and catches a speed favoring track.

[derby1592]

Scott,

The Zito angle on Island Skipper is interesting. I would be more positive on him if I thought the pace was going to be reasonable.

The pace will certainly help Grey Memo. Because of that, I was really trying to like him but I just don\'t see much better than a 3 coming from him and the big field will make it difficult to work out a decent trip. But you never know...

One final note: upon further reflection I am starting to agree more with the TG analysis that Nothing Flat has a shot at a price but I still like the old bear as my longshot key. I am hoping that he \"bearly\" wins...

Chris