For What It's Worth

TGJB · November 03, 2008, 01:42:09 PM

Since I\'ve done pretty well with this election cycle so far, I\'ll take a shot at the finish line. I think the line I gave Jimbo a few weeks ago is about right (Obama minus 5 in the general), if anything I think it will be a point or two less than that. I think the polls are misleading, that business about 14% undecided last week was B.S.-- it\'s almost impossible for that many people to be undecided with candidates so different, so most just didn\'t want to tell a pollster who they were voting for, and some of those are racists. I think McCain wil win most of the \"battleground states\", Obama ends up with around 300 in the electoral college. If McCain gets Pennsylvania-- which is not impossible-- it\'s going to be a late night.

devilinahorsesuit · November 03, 2008, 02:21:10 PM

At least at intrade, Obama in PA is trading at a contract of $88-$91. It doesn\'t look like a terribly deep market, but nonetheless, while McCain getting PA may not be impossible, it doesn\'t appear likely. Is there a good over/under out there on the margin national?

jimbo66 · November 03, 2008, 02:25:03 PM

What odds are you offering on a McCain win? It could happen. Agree with you that it will be closer than the polls show. The republican candidate has run better in the actual election than the polls the last two elections and there was no race factor there. THis skew could be a point or two more (sad state on the country, but unfortunately it is likely that race will play a role in the votes of some people).

I have taken the 7-1 offered on McCain right now. He likely won\'t win, but I give him in a 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 shot. He will win most states that are showing now as \"close\", as you suggested. If he carries Florida and Pennsylvania, he has an outside shot.

TGJB · November 03, 2008, 02:30:59 PM

Don\'t disagree with any of that. Any states where Obama is already at 50 he should take, any others are seriously in doubt.

Uncle Buck · November 03, 2008, 04:56:30 PM

America\'s Line has Obama looking like CIGAR at 1/12 and McCain coming in at 12-1. They even offer exotics and props!
http://www.americasline.com/presidentialodds.aspx

jimbo66 · November 04, 2008, 08:54:50 AM

TGJB,

There is money to be made off the opinion that the race will be close. Either I am as wrong about this election as I was about the Breeders CUp on Pro-Ride, or the betting sites are handicapping this wrong.

I think that although Obama will likely win, both Ohio and Florida will go McCain, as will North Carolina.

At WSEX.COM, Obama is 2-9 in Ohio, 1-3 in Florida and 2-3 in North Carolina. He is pickem in Missour. I don\'t think he wins any of those states.

P-Dub · November 04, 2008, 01:01:36 PM

Buck,
Lots of talk at the room last night on the election.

The bigger players all seem to think it won\'t be close. They have an interest in a Mccain victory, but were pessimistic about it. Some were making side bets on the margin of victory. Over/Under was at about 320 Electoral, some thought it would be as high as 350.

Personally, I think it will be closer than that.

JimP · November 04, 2008, 02:44:43 PM

I think the racist vote will just about even out on the two sides.

asfufh · November 04, 2008, 02:46:33 PM

Whoever wins, it\'s 1000 to one that this scenario could only happen in the USA.
We all deserve a high five for how far we\'ve come in the last 60 years.

TGJB · November 04, 2008, 02:53:23 PM

Hell, in the last four.

HP · November 04, 2008, 03:40:42 PM

Two cents...IMHO, McCain would\'ve been better off running as an Independent. I don\'t think ANY Republican could win this year, short of Abe Lincoln. I can\'t blame McCain for losing. It\'s a referendum on Bush, who is easily the most reviled President of recent times. Between the war and the economy, I don\'t think there\'s a straw for the GOP to clutch...

Silver Charm · November 04, 2008, 04:22:28 PM

Obama will win and win fairly easily. He has over 500+ people working the state of Florida to McCains 90. There are similar numbers elsewhere in other key states.

I voted for McCain but when Obama wins I will support him. This country has a lot of problems that need solving. Obama will not raise your taxed in the first two years but will in the next two.

The Bush bashing needs to stop. He is a good man from a good family who has made mistakes. But he inherited a recession of his own, the dot.com bubble burst and 9/11. The war was necessary but they stayed in there way to long and in the last two elections it has cost the Republicans the control they spent 20 years building.

It may be another 20 before they get it back......

tmon · November 04, 2008, 04:50:01 PM

So what you have just said is that Obama is buying the election.

Silver Charm · November 04, 2008, 05:08:13 PM

He is more organized has a bigger team and network.

The Republicans did the same thing in 2004 in Florida when they making certain there would not be another 2000 recount.

Without the recent economic collapse this potentially could have been another allnighter election.

Obama has been campaigning hard for two solid years. Which at least proves he can get the distance.

jma11473 · November 04, 2008, 07:06:29 PM

Why does the Bush bashing have to stop? This isn\'t the place for it but since the boss has opened a political thread...have you seen what\'s happened to this country in the last eight years? Did you really say Bush is a good man (highly debatable unless you equate \"religious\" with \"good\", and I\'ll refer you to Bin Laden if you do) from a good family? Try \"he\'s in the top five worst presidents ever\" instead. I actually feel bad for McCain because he\'s paying the price for the last eight years, and after the way Bush treated him in 2000 it\'s a shame that he\'s screwing him again.