Smart Money in Cali

[APny]

Is it me or does it seem like Southern Cali bettors are smarter than EVERYONE.  I\'ve never seen a circuit where horses who don\'t deserve favoritism based on thier form end up favored..and win easy.  The Santa Anita meet is TOUGH.

[imallin]

The same thing happened at Del mar and Fairplex. Zero value out there and zero meat on the bone. If you don\'t have info as to which horses are plugged in and which horses are running on empty, you are fighting a losing battle.

[TGJB]

There are workout services in California that the serious players pay for.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

I hear you but aren\'t we some of the similar phenomenon we saw at Delmar, where some of the great workouts in the morning are not translating to racing form in the afternoon because of the same issue of the surface \"heating\" up and changing as the day wears on. (Garrett Gomez, for one, talked about this).

To me, as long as that is the case, the workouts don\'t mean as much, as least it would seem.  Perhaps in the winter, when the temperatures cool down, this phenomenon disappears?

[TGJB]

The best of the workout services (nationalturf.com) doesn\'t base its ratings on the times of the workouts, but on the manner in which the horse worked. They give comments as well (not striding out, finished well, under restraint, etc.). The horses with the high rated works take money, you can see it on the board. And there is correllation between what they see and the results, although obviously not perfect correllation.

[jmetro]

\"Red\", Keeneland\'s clocker, will give you his workout comments for free.  Just go to their website and find clocker comments.

[miff]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 The Blood-Horse!


This year's International Simulcast Conference opened Sept. 29 with some advice to the horseracing industry: Embrace the "whales" and computer-assisted wagering, and close some tracks to help improve the product at those that remain.

The three-day simulcast conference in St. Petersburg, Fla., draws a mix of simulcast directors, representatives of online wagering entities, pari-mutuel vendors, and track executives—but not many of the latter. If more had been in attendance, they may not have liked what they heard.

Michael Konik, a best-selling author, television commentator, and former member of sports-betting syndicates, discussed how computer-assisted wagering allows users to identify potentially profitable plays and make money.

He said the "smart money" has sought out other means to wager on racing because bookmakers "don't want to service people that understand the line better than they do."

Konik acknowledged rebates, which average about 7% in the industry, can spell trouble for the average on-track player who is at a disadvantage, but he doesn't advocate eliminating rebates. He said the industry needs to experiment with lower percentages to see how far it can go without chasing away the whales.

"You will know when the rebate is set too low," Konik said. "I don't know what that right number is for your industry. I don't believe smart bettors will be the end of the industry. In fact, they can be one of the forces that revitalize the industry."

Konik said a major drawback of the pari-mutuel system is takeout rates, which average about 20% but run as high as 30% for some exotic wagers in Pennsylvania.

"I don't think most people can win betting horses at a 20% takeout," he said. "The vast majority of your customers cannot win long-term betting horse racing."

Larry Higgins, executive vice president of the Tampa Bay Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association and a VIP customer at Tampa Bay Downs, said there are four major areas that need improvement: information for bettors, integrity, accommodations for players, and a larger pool of bettors. Higgins, who owns Thoroughbreds, spoke from the perspective of a bettor; he said he wagers about $1 million a year at Tampa Bay Downs.

Higgins said he plans to attend the Breeders' Cup World Championships at Santa Anita Park but will not play the Ultra Pick 6 because he's not convinced the industry has done enough in the area of wagering security since the Ultra Pick 6 fraud of 2002.

"I'm still worried about the kids from Drexel," Higgins said. "There are equally sophisticated or more sophisticated people out there who could do the same thing."

Higgins said past-posting and late odds changes "destroy for many of us our faith in the game." He warned the industry about the dangers of relying on subsidies from gaming machines, and also questioned why some racetracks don't take advantage of resources in their community.

"I don't understand why there aren't more ties between racetracks and universities," Higgins said. "Why aren't we doing anything to attract young kids with money?"

Higgins said subsidies could disappear as state governments continue getting squeezed for money for programs that impact much larger segments of the population. He noted a $70,000 race at Presque Isle Downs & Casino attracted total handle of only $40,000, and suggested tracks start finding ways to generate more business from their core product.

"(Legislators) are going to look at this subsidy and say, 'Why are we giving this money to these people?' " Higgins said.

As for the number of the tracks in the United States, Higgins said it's time to consolidate. He said he races at small tracks and likes many of them, but having so many in operation isn't practical as field sizes shrink.

"I'd like to see at least half of them go out of business," Higgins said. "Every track in America is running, but we don't have enough horses.

"Please do me the courtesy of going out of business."

The simulcast conference is hosted by the Thoroughbred Racing Associations and Harness Tracks of America in conjunction with the America Greyhound Track Operators Association.

[marcus]

Could see a possible Gulliver syndrome arise ... as one fellow had posted on the board not to long ago - a St. Moritz racing link  ( and talk about an All- Weather surface ) ... this place isn\'t too far from the #1 pocket billiard parlor in Swx - if I could only get a couple of those Whales on a 9 ball table there , I\'d personally give \'em rebates and buy dinner ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHuxURPPIXs

[Boscar Obarra]

If what you say is true, it aint the public.

[richiebee]

Miff--

Thank you.

Two trends which have been discussed on this board:

Racing needs to contract (in terms of number of live racing facilities) in
order to survive. You do not even need to close that many facilities; it would
be enough to shorten some of the longer meets-- Finger Lakes, Penn Nat, Philly,
etc.

The stand- alone horseplayer is at a disadvantage when competing against the
cetaceans, a reality only made grimmer by the fact that tracks and simulcast
facilities will (and should) bend over backward to satisfy their biggest
customers.

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The stand- alone horseplayer is at a disadvantage
> when competing against the
> cetaceans, a reality only made grimmer by the fact
> that tracks and simulcast
> facilities will (and should) bend over backward to
> satisfy their biggest
> customers.


That letter stated that they should support whales and computer assisted wagering. Why??  To give them a bigger advantage??  Because they wager more??  Eliminate all of the \"regular\" players and lets see how much money is in the pools for your beloved whales.

I work in the poker industry.  Perhaps we should let our bigger players be able to see 1 hole card from the smaller players. Hey, they wager more money and contribute a bigger drop than the smaller players. They deserve to be at a competitive advantage against the smaller players. Makes perfect sense.

I thought the point of handicapping races is to out think your competition, not see how much money you can shove through the windows, aided by computer generated programs maximizing combinations, and then collecting rebates based on volume. If these \"whales\" are the experts they are purported to be, let them play on equal footing with everyone else.

I have no problem with syndicates playing massive P6 tickets. Everyone has the same opportunity to form their own and do the same thing. Completely different than allowing computers to make your wagers.  I don\'t want to hear how everyone can do the same with computers.

[jma11473]

Richie, I don\'t disagree with what you wrote. Unfortunately, the problem with cutting down racing days for the tracks that run year-round---at least the ones in Pennsylvania---is that they already have in writing that they have to run a certain number of days each year in order to have simulcasting. I believe the same language now exists that they have to run a certain number of days to keep the slots going, as well as put a certain percentage of casino revenue towards purses. It used to be 200 racing days a year minimum to keep simulcasting (that may be 180 days now, not certain), which is why Penn National and Philadelphia Park run roughly four days a week 52 weeks a year (that\'s 208 racing days). As someone who lives near Philly Park and has watched how its run, the people in charge there would like nothing more than to cut back to, oh, about zero racing days a year and just run a casino. They have little interest in racing and barely any space devoted to it. However, the casino is a goldmine, so they\'ll race because they have to. So, until that day 10 or 20 years from now when a state senator or governor realizes they\'re subsidizing a track for no reason, they\'re going to keep running all year to keep the cash flowing in.

[miff]

Hi Paul,

Hate to beat this to death but I\'ll try (last time promise) to explain the difference between the two things that are happening re computer/batch/robotic betting.A brief and very general description.

1.There are computer programs which assist in making many bets. Some of the people using this software program handicap races, set odds and money parameters and bet when their minimum requirements present themselves in a given race.They usually have a rebate tied to their bets. I see no real disadvantage to the smaller player vs this group.I understand that a few players are being \"accommodated\" in this way out in Long Island NY by the Nassau and Suffolk county OTB\'s.I hear the guys are grinding out a profit. How much I do not know and I don\'t really see this as a disadvantage to the regular player.I still don\'t like it personally.


2.Similar, but NOT exact to the above, there existed a far more sinister scheme where the player and the Simo center(Indian reservation/Offshore Island) partnered with the player. In this scheme the simo center paid a modest price for the signal (a few %) and retained up to 20% of the takeout depending on the pool wagered into. Coupled with that was a live computer program hook up at the simo center to the the actual pools at the track.By handicapping and eliminating just 2-3 horse in a ten horse field, this system was taking down good money by what I call skimming. Placing bets in a very computer disciplined manner to ensure only a small loss. Add on the retained takeout and there was the potential for profit.It did not work for every race but over time it proved profitable.I am told this has been stopped even though this was not illegal.This was in fact marginally reducing the payoffs to all other winners on that combination. I understand that the exacta pool was the main target.

These same type simo sites also featured a few smart guys with rebate deals where they touted or claimed to have info and \"bundled\" the plays of all the suckers they had in their group.They then pocketed the rebate for themselves or in some cases shared the rebate without putting any money up themselves.Two guys that I know of are fighting to stay out of jail for tax fraud.

Paul, take some comfort. I sat with and observed several whales in NY, Monmouth,Gulfstream.With some, you wish you could book their action. There are of course several very sharp players who fly under the radar and make the game their living but there are many big betting suckers too, which kinda offsets the sharpies.

I think that accommodating all players at different levels is a good thing for racing but the empty suits that run racing are rather clueless in this regard. I do see some small steps are being taken to address this but nothing like the way the casino\'s treat their regulars, high rollers and just about every level of player.


Mike

[TGJB]

Several things in one post--

Richie, I\'ve been saying for years that shorter meets, with less tracks running at one time and the SAME amount of off site betting, is where things will end up, because they have to. Less expenses (for the industry as a whole), similar handle, bigger purses, bigger fields. The meets that are succesful-- DMR, SAR, Kee, maybe FG, are boutique style meets, not year-round ventures. One of the things that has kept this from happening so far is inequitable distribution of the off-site dollar, and in NY, the presence of a competitor (OTB) which will get the simulcast handle and drain the locals even if NYRA shuts down for the winter.

Pdub-- The primary reason to accomadate big bettors is because they bet big. Racing needs all the handle it can get. Crediting Alan Gutterman, who qualifies as one of the brightest people in this business (and who I believe started the first big-bettors room at a track), 2% of the players bet 40% of the money. Giving big customers a discount is no different than what Wall St. does.

But since you are in the poker industry, we should note some other differences. You guys make a big deal when someone wins a contest (cash on the table), you make the winning players the stars, and oh yeah, your takeout is a wee bit lower. These things combined with an easy-to-understand game and tremendous marketing and exposure have made that business work.

Racing, on the other hand, does and has none of that. The idea of trying to keep whales from winning would be a further example of the industry\'s marketing slogan-- \"Try our game, we don\'t let anyone win. You can\'t beat the horses\". Catchy, right?

[P-Dub]

JB/Miff,

Thanks for the info, makes better sense to me.  MY concerns were mainly with Miff\'s 2nd example.

We also accommodate bigger players. They contribute a bigger drop, hands go quicker which results in more hands per hour thus more for the house. Makes sense to service the high volume horse player in the same way.

Sorry to hear about Nick.  Many in my  family have had to deal with this dreadful disease. Condolences to his family and friends.