Big Brown and Not so "Proud"-insky

[fkach]

I have no opinion on Pick3s, 4s, 6s etc...but the exactas do tend to be fairly efficient.  However, there are times when the favorite looks so darn weak you can leverage your opinion to greater value by excluding it from the place slot also. There are also times when you have a strong negative opinion, but the complexities of the race make it difficult to form a positive opinion on a single horse. You can then spread around a little and feel confident you have value despite not having a high level of confidence on any given horse.

IMO, the choice of pools should NEVER be about how big a score you might make. It should always be about the expected ROI. Typically, since the take is higher for exotic bets, you are better off in the win/place/show pools. To get greater value in the exotics, you really need to have \"two\" value oriented opinions in the same race or series of races. If you do have two value oriented opinions though, you can do MUCH better in exotics.

[fkach]

>>For example, I loved Past the Point in the Woodward, but I knew he couldn\'t beat Curlin at equal weight. I passed the race. One might ask why didn\'t you play the exacta; why?....to collect $40 while my 53-1 shot runs his eyeballs out but inevitably gets beat by a superior animal. <<

Joe,

If I loved the value on Past the Point in the Woodward I would have made a small bet on him to win and a large cold exacta with Curlin on top.  

Finding value in the exotics is not limited to eliminating the favorite. If you find a longshot that should be the 2nd or close 3rd choice, but it\'s 50-1 on the board, the exacta combination with the favorite is almost always a good value unless for some reason the favorite is very wildly overbet. IMHO, Curlin was not a good value bet on the win end, but he was no worse than the typical very big odds-on favorite (which tend to outpeform the take by a little).

[P-Dub]

jbelfior Wrote:

> I won\'t toss the favorite out of my exacta play;
> I\'ll use him in the 2 hole then start looking for
> real value with my key play on top only. If I
> think the favorite can\'t be beat, I don\'t play.
>
> For example, I loved Past the Point in the
> Woodward, but I knew he couldn\'t beat Curlin at
> equal weight. I passed the race. One might ask why
> didn\'t you play the exacta; why?....to collect $40
> while my 53-1 shot runs his eyeballs out but
> inevitably gets beat by a superior animal.
>
>
> Example #2...The Arlington Million. I felt
> strongly about Spirit One\'s chances after the
> scratch of Sudan and knew he had a big shot to
> beat the chalk. How to bet? There\'s a 7 horse
> field and a strong 7-5 favorite in Archipenko. Do
> i bet $200 win on Spirit One (you collect $2,960)
> or make a $200 straight exacta ( I collected
> $6,800). I more than doubled my profit by using a
> 7-5 shot to run second.
>
> Yes, I\'ll run the risk of watching a Spirit One
> win and pay 13-1 while an Archipenko runs out and
> my prime play loses....that day! Over time, I\'ll
> make more money using the exacta strategy. I think
> it\'s more about math and probability and the
> public overplaying the favorite on top in exactas
> than anything else.
>
>
> As good as we may be (or think we are), we are
> going to lose most of our plays. IMO, exotics are
> the only means of making up for the high
> percentage of losing bets.
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


I don\'t know about this strategy Joe.

You\'re telling me that the favorite will run second half the time??  I can see maybe splitting the bet. $100 to win on Spirit One and a $100 cold exacta.  But to put all of your eggs in one basket, hoping the favorite runs second to your 14-1 shot so that you can double your profit??  You would have to be right 50% of the time to see a slightly bigger profit longterm. You can tell me all you want that this strategy works, but the math really doesn\'t add up.  Unless I\'m missing something.

As for the Woodward example. Again, I don\'t see the logic here.  You say why watch your 53-1 shot run his eyeballs out only to collect $40. Look at it this way....throw out Curlin. You now have a 6 horse field.  You wouldn\'t take 19-1 on this horse in a 6 horse field that doesn\'t include Curlin?? The 53-1 odds don\'t matter because he wasn\'t going to win anyway. If you loved this horse as much as you say, 19-1 against the rest of the field sounds like a pretty square price. You don\'t like 19-1 shots?? Thats basically what his \"win\" price was.

I agree exotics are the way to go. But to get nothing on a 13-1 shot because the favorite doesn\'t run second, or to dismiss playing an exacta because the heavy favorite can\'t be beat and you feel the longshot\'s value is diminished....that price was a mirage in the first place.  take the generous exacta price and be happy.  Yes, 19-1 is generous when put into perspective.

[miff]

In case you did not notice, the clueless NY State politicians hit the unrepresented and voiceless players with an additional 1% takeout on all bets made at NY tracks.

At a time when the game is hemorrhaging serious players, they took a pint of blood. BRILLIANT!


Mike

[elkurzhal]

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

\"As for the winning Beyer Speed Figure of 105, it is completely made up, as is anyone\'s speed figure, sheet number or any other numeric gauge of the only grass race run at Monmouth last Saturday. There\'s simply nothing to compare it to and no context for the raw time. Having said that, it seems like a highly reasonable guess.\"

Any comment on the ability to make a legit figure for the only turf race of the day?   If beyers are a complete guess if there is only one race , what are they half-ass guesses if there are two?  

[TGJB]

If you are using pars-- which nobody who wants to be taken seriously does-- then it\'s a guess, because you are just dragging one race back to par based on the winner\'s time. If instead you are a serious figure maker, you are using the past histories of all the horses in the race, which gives you a lot of data points in a race with older horses. Since grass horses are also extremely consistent, and since some of us also factor in ground loss and weight, we are able to be very accurate and get things down to a very narrow range of possible scenarios very quickly. As you will see below with the race in question. There really aren\'t too many ways to look at it-- it ain\'t a guess.

When you have only one grass race on the day, and it\'s 2yo maidens who have not raced on it, and it rained the night before, and they are dark the next day... nightmare.

Likewise, there was this race Chilukki made her debut in...

[miff]

It seems that all three main fig makers are \"kinda close\"

Beyer@105 is app a TG 1/2

Rags @ 5 is app a TG 1 & 1/2

TG posted(took down?) 2 & 1/2

Not surprised you are a bit slower in this case mainly because you have Shakis generally slower than Beyer and Rags going in.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Shakis is definitely slower on TG than on Beyers or Rags.

I can\'t find a replay of the Big Brown race, but for a horse that made the lead on the front end, hard to believe Desormeaux gave this horse a 3w/2w ride.

[jimbo66]

Joe B.

We all have our ways of betting and i am sure you feel what you are doing is best to do.

Have to tell you though, a couple of things.

1.  I won\'t sleep nights, if I like 13-1 shots and they win and I don\'t win because I singled him over 1 horse in the exacta and that horse didn\'t run 2nd.  I think it is a mortal sin to like a horse that is 10-1 or better and not have a win bet.

2  I am not opining, but am sure I am right, when I say favorites are not just overplayed on top in exactas, but are also overplayed and underlaid in the runner up spot, so I don\'t think that part of your strategy makes sense to me.

Jim

[jimbo66]

Fkach,

Would absolutely love to see the study you did where heavy odds on favorites beat the takeout and were a winning bet over any reasonable sized sample.

That is absolutely hogwash.

[ronwar]

try youtube

[fkach]

jimbo,

I obviously didn\'t say that big odds on favorites are a winning bet. rotflmao

I said they outperform the take.

For example, if the track take is 17%, you will typically lose less than 17% on big odds on favorites and more than 17% on longshots. That bias used to be stronger years ago than it is now, but it\'s still there. The bias also exists in the place pool.

[jimbo66]

Somebody was nice enough to send the link to the replay of Big Brown\'s race in the Monmouth and unless I am blind, I don\'t see a 3w/2w trip at all.  Not sure what angle TG was looking at.  Are you sure that the ground loss guy wasn\'t looking at \"Get Serious\" in the first turn?

[miff]

One post only.The most sophisticated ground measurement computer software overlay(Trakus like) had BB:

Turn one, 2.20 paths wide

Turn two, 1.70 paths wide


The overlay program splits the turns into halves and does an averaging.


Mike

[TGJB]

We had him 3/2 first turn, 2 second. What is printed on the sheet is rounded off.