Monmouth Stakes

[mlnolan00]

1)Nightscape
2)Hotstuffanthensome
3)Shakis
4)Big Brown
5)Kiss The Kid
6)Proudinsky
7)Drum Major
8)Get Serious
9)Fagedaboudit Sal
10)Ballonenostrikes
11)Silver Tree

Pretty Nice Race...

[fkach]

I just looked at the PPs. For some reason the race doesn\'t look quite as tough to me as I thought it would. It\'s still a tough spot to take 3-5 on a horse like BB. There are still questions about the health of his feet and he\'ll be trying turf for the first time in a long time against solid horses. But IMO it\'s an easier spot than Curlin faced in his turf debut and he ran decently in defeat. And of course, BB has already raced over turf and finished powerfully when he did, albeit against non entities.

[Silver Charm]

Big Brown is a good horse and he should beat these. If he does not then the spring run was more of a streak than a blossoming.

If the race went without Big Brown first place was a $120K. With the race going with Big Brown second place is $100K. Hence the deep field in terms of numbers.

I hope Big Brown runs well and wins and goes on to Santa Anita to face Curlin. There are lot of really good horses out there now; (Zenyatta, Ginger Punch, Hysterical Lady, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell) but these are the only two anyone wants to talk about and give a lot credit too. In terms of how outstanding and brilliant they are. The others I mentioned fit in that category also.  

So since everything is just a two horse race we may as well keep them around for as long as we can. Once the others are gone people will begin to appreciate them a little more...........

[richiebee]

Hypothetical Scenario:

Lets say that the class horses which are entered-- the 8YO Shakis, the 5YO
Proudinsky and the 8YO Silver Tree -- all run in this race.

Lets say that BB handles this field pretty easily, gives a good visual
impression, runs the race in a time near the track record, receives
an impressive number from all of the 3 wise men, and comes out of the race
in top condition.

Do you point BB towards the BC Turf rather than the BC Classic?

[jbelfior]

One of the things they may want to see on Saturday is Big Brown relax early rather than Kent wrestling him into submission.

An anxious 3yo running on the turf against Grade 1 animals can\'t win at any distance.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

I wonder what they\'ll do if he runs a disappointing well beaten 3rd or 4th?

Do they say \"He didn\'t like it and go on\" or do they retire him?

To me, if he doesn\'t run a big race, he doesn\'t have much of a shot in the Classic. IMO, he\'s got to demonstrate he\'s both really good AND that he can handle the surface because those artificial surfaces are more like turf than dirt. I guess he doesn\'t have to win, but IMO he better at least be in a ding dong battle with a very good horse at the end.

[Silver Charm]

He needs to win and look good doing it. The value of this animal is vanishing faster than Lehman Bros stock.

Remember FuPeg. Impressive spring. Solid comebacker in Jerome. Trot five wide around the track in BC Classic with no impact and see his Stallion Fee cut in half in first 3-4 years at Stud.

My point is the Fee was to high to begin with based on nice run from March to May against mediocre 3YO.

[Favorite Trick]

Calling this group of 3YO mediocre is a upgrade from what i call them.Big Brown wouldnt have been in the top 5 in last year group.You will see how sad this group is when Big Brown is up the track Sat.

[Silver Charm]

Dominguez/Frankel Profile could you please fix this a rerun Proudinsky\'s sheet.

Thanks.

Great Analysis Favorite Trick. Proudinsky looks like a horse that was a little short in his last and will make Big Brown run every step of the way. Kiss the Kid has had only one bad one this year. The Met. The race after that was better than the figure looks. He may go back figure wise and he may be in over his head. But he is at home and on his best day is good enough to punch it in. At 12-1 or more make sure you punch him on your ticket. If you do not you will feel like you have been punched in the face.

This will not be some candy ride 3yo race where Big Brown finds his normal spot and kicks home. Tactics will be in play from the minute the gate opens.

[Lost Cause]

I liked Proudinsky in this one even before I saw the sheets..Love him now after seeing the sheets..Also like Drum Major as the backup horse.  I\'m another one that thinks Big Brown gets beat here as there seems to be a couple of speedsters on the outside of him to get him rank on the inside..Expect him to throw his head around and rush up on the backstretch then tire to finish fourth.  Have a feeling Shakis does not like the soft turf so I\'m taking a stand against here and Kiss the Kid runs his best figures on dirt, I will use them third and fourth along with BB.

Beat Brown

[jbelfior]

The sheets scream \"Proudinsky,\" especially on a soft turf. How he ended up with that trip in the Baruch is a real head scratcher.

Unfortunately if the 3 cross-entered horses decide to go to Philly, you may be looking at a 5/2 shot.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[mlnolan00]

I like Proudinsky as well, he\'ll like the soft and as long as Ramon can keep him out of trouble he\'s got a huge shot.  I\'ll also look at Kiss the Kid and Drum Major to use in the Super.

Just when you thought it couldn\'t get any stranger:
http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/racing-news/2008/September/12/Big-Brown-may-remain-in-training.aspx

Why does this come out the morning of the big race?  Because he\'ll suck or b/c he\'ll run his eyeballs out?

[richiebee]

Since Dutrow\'s and Iavarone\'s statements usually conflict, look for Tricky to
come out and say BB is definitely retiring.

Turf course listed as \"Good\" at MTH, would think it is on the soft or yielding
side of good. More rain possible in NY area, the softer the better for
Proudinsky, who I would expect to be no more than a 2/1 second fave if the
field stays intact.(UPDATE: Drum Major, Ballonenostrikes scratched).

Taking the ROTW analysis a step further, I will try to eliminate BB, Silver
Tree and Shakis from the exacta.

[Silver Charm]

With all of the steam coming in on this one he may be favored.

Big Brown should race next year to get that stud value back to the $50-60M they thought they once had. The FuPeg example I cited earlier in the string is no bull. He now stands for $45k after beginning at around $125-150K.

If BB was to come back he would be able to take his time and find spots and run on Turf and Dirt ala John Henry. This would be great for Big Brown, SPECTRE and horse racing.

[Silver Charm]

Big Brown ran good. Blasted to an early open daylight lead. Nobody gonna good ever gonna go with that. Settled then held them off down the lane as rider pleased.

If he handles the Poly he will be a bear on the Big Day and they are gonna have to come and get him.