ROTW??

[Lost Cause]

Any Ideas what it\'s going to be..

[Silver Charm]

I am a little surprised at the selection here. The significant Tops run by IB in her last two are enough to send me looking elsewhere.

Good 3YO colts don\'t punch out 3 of those types in a row. IB will not either. I have never been a big fan of the bounce and win theory either. If this is truely the case in my book \"a race is a pass\".  

Spring Waltz is a tricky read. She was supposed to run Derby week after the GP meet but took an extended break. The Delaware race was not visually good even though the number was ok..Frankel is good off layoffs but not this time. Hmmmmm.  

Baffert sent two runners here. Why?

Copper State has moved up connections.

If Hurricane Hanna doesn\'t hit Hempstead, the mutuals may look it did after this one......

[jbelfior]

This is a pass race. IB may indeed bounce; but I have no confidence in anyone else in here.

Interesting race in Woodbine tomorrow. Better Talk Now, benefited by a strong pace in the Manhattan and a closer\'s bias in the Sword Dancer, figures to get heavily played.

Looking for Strike A Deal to return to his Monmouth performance. Nice conditioner over the Woodbine lawn by Goldberg on August 4th. At 117 lbs. and at double digit odds, an interesting look.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

I have a tough time with the idea that Indian Blessing is the \"best 3YO filly of all time\", but she\'s certainly a terrific sprinter (though there might be a couple I\'d still take over her).

I think the interesting thing is going to be how they bet it. If they focus exclusively on her superior last couple of races, she\'ll go off as an extreme favorite and might be worth a taking a shot against. If they focus on the fact that she has ALWAYS looked like she might be better sprinting, then she\'ll still go off the favorite, but not a super strong one. In that case I\'d be more inclined to just watch the race.  
 
I think Copper State is much improved, but I\'m a little skeptical of the Go For Wand. The pace was slow and Ginger Punch did very little running because she was trapped for quite awhile. I think the fact that CS finished fairly close to her overstates the actual performance. So far, Only Ginger Punch has come out of the race with a solid performance. The rest have been disappointing.  

I\'d be more inclined to use Spring Waltz, Tough Tiz\'s Sis, or even Miraculous Mis unless Copper State goes off at something near her morning line (which I doubt).

[Lost Cause]

\"Best Three year old of all time\"
I don\'t think so...This one can\'t beat Musical Note or Proud Spell now not to mention the past stars..
This horse is a total play against today at this distance going off what will probably be 8/5.  This horse has faced bad 3 yr old horses in her past couple of races..How is she beating good older fillies today?..
I like Spring Waltz but I also have a feeling Rite moment is going to run her eyeballs out today staying close to Indian Blessing, who I believe will revert to her front running ways today, early and having more stamina in the stretch to run by in the end.  It also helps that she has the best route number of the whole field..I\'ll box those two and play a win bet on Rite moment anywhere close to the M/L of 12/1..

Good Luck Everyone

[miff]

\"Best Three year old of all time\"


....that ranks right there with Big Brown running \"the fastest derby ever\" Both statements are addressing the TG figs earned by these horses compared to those who came before them.The greatest horses did not necessarily run the fastest TG figs. It\'s much more a \"fig\" thing than a \"greatest\" thing.

JB once wrote that Smarty Jones would have beaten Secretariat by \"quite a bit\" had they met. Makes sense, especially at a mile and a half!


Mike

[gohorse10]

Indian Blessing is Scratched.

[TGJB]

Oh, knock it off. I made a point of saying ON PURE ABILITY, as opposed to accomplishment, and I\'m pretty sure didn\'t say anything about a mile and a half. In fact, I would like to see the whole quote in context.

Indian Blessing was never \"the selection\", I made it clear (as in \'clearly the value\") that the play was Copper State. It was also clear IB was going to scratch, but I had to write her up in case she didn\'t. Baffert wasn\'t going to ship TTS 3,000 miles to run against IB, and IB wouldn\'t gain anything by winning this race. They are either going to sprint her or get her a race over Santa Anita, or both.

Miff, I have a question for you. If all the fractions in the Wodward were a second slower and the final time was the same, would it be a better race? Yes or no will do.

[miff]

JB,


Sorry can\'t give a simple yes or no.

No from a performance fig perspective, better yes, but probably only visually.I have never seen Curlin run that slow from the 1/8th pole to the wire in any of his races. Maybe chasing that extreme pace took it\'s toll late. Great horse do not run the last eighth in 14 seconds on glib surfaces unless the final time is extraordinarily fast, this was not.

I think this is a classic example of using visual observation along with figs to completely evaluate his performance.This was his worst performance in a long time and more than the point or so difference that your figs may show, imo.I\'m assuming you have him in the neg -3 range with a Hot pace designation.


Mike

[alm]

Great call:

Tough Tiz's Sis (119) (6-1) – has been hard hitting, and has showed she can
handle both dirt and artificial surfaces. But she's been racing against a very
weak group in California, with the exception of Zenyatta—and her two
efforts against that filly weren't nearly as good as they looked. In both starts
Tough Tiz's Sis got weight from Zenyatta and had a rail trip—her figures
are not that strong, and she's not a strong contender here.

[Silver Charm]

This was a good call.........

[basket777]

Just wasn\'t going to go to the track today. But I opened up the website at around 3. Read that he again said the value play was cs.  took a little drive bet 600 wp and drove home.  nice surprise when i saw the place number.

if you come to the meadowlands sometime lets say hi.

[congaree1]

Ridiculous!

[TGJB]

You did a lot better than I did. I bet her to win, and under SW heavy and three others light. Which did not include the winner.

Man, Baffert\'s horses prefer dirt.

[fkach]

>Miff, I have a question for you. If all the fractions in the Wodward were a second slower and the final time was the same, would it be a better race? Yes or no will do.<

IMO, if all the fractions were a second slower, the chances those same horses would have run the same final time are pretty close to 0%. That pace was very fast (especially the middle when Curlin tried to get into the race) relative to that final time and IMO almost certainly not only impacted the final fraction, but the final time also.