M Jellish/Miff

[fkach]

>Isn\'t breeding a champion more or less just good fortune/random like shooting dice in a casino.Thanks <

I think it\'s more like playing a game of cards.

If you have AK-AQ or a high pocket pair you have the best of it over a lot of other hands, but you can still be outdrawn by 72o. ;-)

[rosewood]

Miff,

It really is a coincidence that the two fastest horses on the planet are trained by Tricky and Gasmussen.........

[miff]

Rose,

They were fast when trained by Helen Pitts and Pat Reynolds, I\'m not drinking the Kool Aid on these two freaks.

Mike

[rosewood]

Mike,

At least Pat got some commission, but Helen didn\'t even get kissed did she?

[miff]

Rose,

Paul Pompa did the right thing by Pat Reynolds. Did they stiff Helen Pitts?


Mike

[rosewood]

Don\'t know, I was asking.

[BitPlayer]

Electrocutioner -

I am posting, not to support Alm\'s sex-linked inheritance theories, but to call to your attention a paper that may support the additional influence of the dam (but not the dam sire) on stamina.  There is a a paper that was published in Mitochondrion a couple of years ago that purports to find a correlation between mtDNA (which I believe is not subject to Mendelian inheritance, but comes from the dam) and optimum racing distance:

http://www.thoroughbredgenetics.com/Mitochondrion%206(2006)%2053-66.pdf

I\'m not sophisticated enough about genetics or statistics to evaluate the paper and would be interested in any comments you might have.  The paper came to my attention through a post on this site:

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,26856,26856#msg-26856

I think it would be interesting to see how Better Than Honour\'s genotype fits with the paper\'s findings.

[alm]

Thanks BitPlayer...good post.  Of course, if something can only be inherited from the dam, it is by definition sex-linked.  So are all the other influences I\'ve cited.

Try finding Marianna Huan\'s book: The X Factor.  Russell Meerdink publishes it.

[alm]

Good post, good questions.

For sure, the outcome of any breeding is a complex set of genetic interactions.  It has to do with sex-linked genes, which can also be dominent or recessive,thus complicating things.  It also has to do with the interactions of certain families, whose dna or phenotypes overlap, sometimes in a variety of good or bad ways.

In other words,you can only narrow the possibilities by considering all of the possible outcomes of a particular breeding.

I can tell you that I started to breed a better horse after I began using the Equix concept.  I got a graded stakes horse for a $2,000 stud fee; a stakes winner for a $1,000 stud fee; several multiple allowance and high claiming race winners for $500 stud fees.  I also bred a statebred Horse of the Year for a $500 stud fee.  All of this from the same dupey mares who couldn\'t produce $5,000 maiden claimers before I learned what I\'ve learned.

[BitPlayer]

Alm -

As used in genetics, the term \"sex-linked\" refers to genes located on one of the sex chromosomes (X or Y).  Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is found in the mitochondria, not on any chromosome.  Because the mitochondria are involved in the process of converting energy to a form the muscles and other cells can use, there is a logical appeal to some of the conclusions of the paper I posted.  But one paper is hardly conclusive, and this one certainly doesn\'t support most of your post.

If you are interested in the subject, you should go to a library, borrow a college-level biology textbook, and read the chapter(s) on genetics.  The book doesn\'t have to be particularly current to get the basics right.  (As you noted, Mendel has been dead a long time.)  If you do, you will realize how outlandish your post sounds.

[smalltimer]

Below are the following past several Ky Derby and BC Classic winners Average Winning Distances for both the Sire and the Dam\'s Sire:
Race            Winner           Sire AWD    Dam\'s Sire AWD
\'04 Classic     Ghostzapper        7.4           6.9
\'05 Classic     Saint Liam         7.1           7.5
\'06 Classic     Invasor            7.4           8.4
\'07 Classic     Curlin             7.4           7.6

\'05 Derby       Giacomo            6.9           7.0
\'06 Derby       Barbaro            8.3           6.4
\'07 Derby       Street Sense       7.0           7.1
\'08 Derby       Big Brown          7.0           7.9

\'05 Belmont     Afleet Alex        6.4           7.9
\'06 Belmont     Jazil              7.2           7.6
\'07 Belmont     Rags To Riches     8.2           7.6
 
\'08 Belmont     Big Brown          7.0           7.9
                Denis of Cork      6.7           7.8
                Tale of Ekati      6.7           8.7
                Anak Nakal         7.5           7.5
                Guadalcanal        6.7           8.9
                Macho Again        6.8           7.4
                Casino Drive       7.7           7.6
                Da\'Tara            7.4           6.7
                Ready\'s Echo       6.9           8.4
                Icabad Crane       6.9           7.5

Conclusion?  Breeding a champion is not a science. AWD of 7.6 on the Dam\'s side makes many of these champions, but what about Ghostzapper, Giacomo, Barbaro, and Street Sense?  (Rhetorical).
The two most stark examples are Barbaro and Afleet Alex.  On paper, they could have both been thrown out by being light on either the male or female side.  Instead, they were both great horses, albeit different running styles.
Just an observation.

[jbelfior]

Good stuff!


We all like to try to simplify a very complex game with numbers. Numbers, whether they be Thoro performance ratings, pace ratings, Beyers, or dosage numbers all are valuable tools within the horseplayer\'s tool box.

However, other important attributes of a thoroughbred, specifically heart, class, and perseverance (see Afleet Alex), all cannot be quantified.


That being said, I am interested in the 8.7 for TOE.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Electrocutioner]

Bit-

Thanks for the reference. It will take me a few days to go over it, but I will go over it. The paper also has some interesting citations (no pun intended) that I will also get a look at. On first glance, it looks like a well-written paper. The main premise is that mtDNA, being responsible for some genes involved in respiration, may be responsible for female-dominated stamina traits. But given that there are literally hundreds of genes involved in these processes, the influence of other chromosomes is likely much larger. Nonetheless, without having examined it in detail I\'ll withold judgment.

While the paper does make it possible for someone with the right lab tools to examine the genotype (the actual DNA sequence) of these genes, unless you have a piece of Better Than Honour\'s DNA (virtually any tissue, or in the case of mtDNA, hair would work), it would be impossible to determine a genotype. Perhaps you could genotype by descent, but that would assume that you had the DNA sequences of his parents. I am interested in this area, and I do have a lab capable of this kind of work. But the biggest hurdle is to identify naturally occurring genetic variants that confer advantages at different race distances. I do, in fact, believe that this is possible. We already know some of the genes involved. Regarding the current discussion, few of them are mitochondrial. But clearly it would be possible to identify breeding stock and progeny with advantageous genotypes. But the critical factor is knowing which genes to examine, and perservering and being lucky enough to find a variant that really matters.

All that being said, remember that genetics is only part of racing ability. Think of it as genetics just providing a basis- a predisposition. Environmental factors are likely as important- things like maternal care, early experiences, injuries, just about everything that goes into bringing an animal to the races. I am sure you can name many full sibs to great horses but were lousy racehorses. There is still an element of chance in it all.

[Electrocutioner]

Smalltimer-

Thanks for the AWD data. It would be interesting to see more Belmont data and compare with other races.

Joe B-  By this logic, we shouldn\'t stop at TOE. Let\'s cash in with a Guadalcanal-Tale of Ekati-Ready\'s Echo trifecta! If it comes in, dinners on me. Hell, if it comes in, you buy \'cause you\'ll have everyone\'s cash!

Seriously, TOE may run well, could even win if BB falls apart. But for me just the AWD data would not sway me one way or the other.

[Electrocutioner]

Mike-

As far as I can tell, the Equix concept is about trying to match phenotypes. That is, it is based on matching physical measurements of sires and dams. Since you are much more likely to have considerably more physical variation at the lower levels of the breeding industry, I do not doubt that applying some standardized practices to equine breeding would improve horses with poor pedrigrees. While Alm claims to have seen just this, it has nothing to do with sex-influenced genetic selection.

With the Maktooms, you only have to look at the extent of their breeding operations to see the understanding that they have of this game. It is purely a numbers game. They understand that it is the combination of ability on the background of genetic merit. And since it is very difficult to get a handle on genetic merit (at least until there are a lot of progeny racing), they are buying up the best racehorses, sending high quality mares to them, and letting them perform. And if they have a basis of many hundreds of the best racing animals,including access to the best mares, then they are able to maximize the chances of breeding the best racing animals.

The poker analogy is correct. Except that the Sheik and his brothers have the wherewithal to buy Big Slick on every deal.