Race shapes comment in Hollywood 7th today

[covelj70]

Trying to start to incorporate Race Shape into my capping a bit.

Looking at the 7th today at Hollywood.  

The consensus says that the 2 is a strong single in the pick 6.  

While the sheet numbers for the 2 are strong, the pattern and race shapes says he\'s a very vulnerable favroite.

In particular, the 2 has been on the lead in every race he has run and has never passed a horse to win a race.  

Race shapes says he will be well back in this race and if that\'s the case, then I don\'t think he gets there as the horse hasn\'t shown an ability to or affinity for passing horses.

If we can throw the fav out, we have a chance to make some dough in the pick 4 and pick 6 as I think most cappers will look at the race and single the 2.

I would play the 5, Masterful Miss, based on the race shape and the sheet numbers.  If the 2 doesn\'t get the lead and chucks it in, Masterful Miss is the likely winner and could create some value in the multi-race exotics.

Anyone have any thoughts?

[covelj70]

For the purposes of full disclosure and public humiliation, this was a bad call by me.

The 2 got the lead over the 5 and they ran all the way around the track that way costing me the pick 6 (I stupidly threw out the chalk and singled the 5).

Is this a precursor for me for the same bonehead move in the Belmont with the $1m guarenteed pick 6 on the line?