Paid Workout

[gohorse10]

Big Brown just got a paid workout for the Belmont. BB has not run his top race yet and it might be coming in the Belmont. He is just much better than a week group of 3yr olds. We will have to wait for him to run against older horses to find out how good he is.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The second and third best horses of the crop are fillies. One is dead. The rest of the current crop are not much to get excited about.

Lest I give the impression that I cash all the time, I did not cash that Preakness. I waffled on Macho Again and that cost me.

BJB can rate and that makes his coming Belmont effort a possible race for the record books.

If he wins that Belmont, I\'m imagining instant retirement. Heck, I love them to race on, but I\'d retire him too.



gohorse10 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Big Brown just got a paid workout for the Belmont.
> BB has not run his top race yet and it might be
> coming in the Belmont. He is just much better than
> a week group of 3yr olds. We will have to wait for
> him to run against older horses to find out how
> good he is.

[Silver Charm]

They just partnered with Three Chimney\'s. This bunch retired Smarty Jones in a blink. This horse\'s career is finished as soon as he hits the wire in the Belmont.  

Everyone went on TV all day and talked about \"We Need Change\" and it is just going to be more of the same.

[rosewood]

Charm,

He hasn\'t made it to the Belmont yet.

They can just put an \"*\" by his name like they will Bary Bonds name.

As Jim Squires, who bred MONARCHOS replied to a question in Blood Horse this week:



Paris, KY:
Does racing have real problems or is it just a public relations issue that will go away with some slick advertising? Also, would a Triple Crown for Big Brown help us move on?

Squires:
I certainly don\'t have anything against Kentucky-bred Big Brown, who is lovely and fast. But if a Triple Crown winner with a history of bad feet, slow opponents and from a barn with a history of drug positives can solve this problem, this is an industry not worth saving.

[Silver Charm]

Agreed. Look at the facts. Three Chimneys to get a good ROI at this price will have to get this horse to as many mares as they possibly can.

More bad feet being passed on to more bad. Wait until they get ahold of the Unbridleds Song mares. We just bred the worst feet to the worst knees we could find and we are proud of it........

[jmh384]

amen  the only horses they pay money for are the ones that peak at 3 (early in the year) wasnt the breeders cup supposed to change that. we need bigger purses for older horses.its impossible to bring back true handicap races (venue shopping) but i can still dream

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Methinks firstly that Mr. Squires is a little miffed that he sold Monarchos and secondly distraut because after his Derby win Monarchos tanked and went into hibernation.

Despite Squire\'s unkind words BJB now has things Monarchos couldn\'t accomplish and is more horse than 5 Monarchos.

Dirty Dick is not all about tricks. He obviously picked up some bona fide techniques from the old man.

rosewood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Charm,
>
> He hasn\'t made it to the Belmont yet.
>
> They can just put an \"*\" by his name like they
> will Bary Bonds name.
>
> As Jim Squires, who bred MONARCHOS replied to a
> question in Blood Horse this week:
>
>
>
> Paris, KY:
> Does racing have real problems or is it just a
> public relations issue that will go away with some
> slick advertising? Also, would a Triple Crown for
> Big Brown help us move on?
>
> Squires:
> I certainly don\'t have anything against
> Kentucky-bred Big Brown, who is lovely and fast.
> But if a Triple Crown winner with a history of bad
> feet, slow opponents and from a barn with a
> history of drug positives can solve this problem,
> this is an industry not worth saving.

[richiebee]

Rosewood:

I would suggest to Mr Squires, who sold the best horse he ever bred, that
he and his fellow breeders are a large part of the problem.

As to the hooves (isn\'t that what they call feet in the horse business, Mr
Squires?), I think Dutrow and his farrier should be getting some credit right
now for holding this colt\'s hooves together. Whenever Dutrow says (or someone
mentions) that part of his success is due to enjoying service of a blacksmith
who works only for him and his brother Tony, I think lots of people roll their
eyes, but I think that many who are closer to the backstretch than I am will
agree that it is a tremendous advantage.

Rick Dutrow may be a flawed human being who has shown no particular respect for
the rules of racing in the past, but it is hard to find fault with anything he
has done with this particular specimen.

Since I am here, some post mortemization:

TV Coverage:  Very interesting that NBC took what seemed to be like 45 minutes
of its TV coverage to address Racing\'s pressing issues, many of which were in
existence well before Eight Belles\' horrific breakdown at Churchill. Medication,
synthetic surfaces,are we breeding the wrong kind of racehorse, etc, were all
discussed.The conclusion was the only logical one, one which has been stated
here many times--Racing needs a central governing body, with a national racing
czar, to solve its problems.

As to Alex Waldorp of NTRA, \"W\" basically said that he is awaiting orders from
the Industry, which is not encouraging. I know, W, that this is not your
mandate, but why aren\'t you and your organization trying to get racing to the
point where all efforts are unified and a National body empowered?

The answer to this question, of course, is that the first conclusion of such
body would be, that in order to improve Racing and to improve the breed, there
would have to be \"LESS\": Less racetracks, less races being run, less horses
being bred, less unraced and ungraded stallions, all of which would result in
less money being made by a good deal of those actively involved in the business
of Racing, and will probably result in many who are scratching out a living in
Racing no longer being able to.

I do not believe NTRA, based on its constituency, is well suited to deliver the
\"LESS\" message. But LESS solves 2 major issues, which are actually one related
issue--the weakening of the breed and the diminishing quality of Racing in the
US.

The coverage of Dutrow was about what was to be expected. His answer to the
question of whether he would continue to succeed without steroids--that his
stable would continue to prosper without them--is probably accurate in that
steroids might not be the only arrow in his quiver.

Coverage of the race itself-- Since I didn\'t bet, I was not that unhappy with
the camera switches to the Snoopy I (blimp) shots. After 3/4s of a mile or so
you clearly saw Kent D looking under his arms and back through his legs and the
burst of acceleration was quite impressive, though I will continue to temper
my impression of it based on the fact that there were only 2 Graded stakes
winners in this field in addition to 4 colts and 1 gelding who were eligible to
run in a non winners of 2 lifetime race at any racetrack in the United States.

Regardless (or irregardless) a very impressive specimen who will be a deserving
odds on favotite to win the first Triple Crown in 30 years.

BB will be the seventh runner in the last 12 years to have a chance to win the
TC. That seems like too big a number considering that many are calling for the
traditional Triple Crown to be overhauled.

[Silver Charm]

Since Three Chimneys has now acquired the horse perhaps Costas or some other media types can drill down on these guys on what they intend to do with and the breed specifically.

Not that the Clay Brothers a re bad guys but they are business guys. And good ones to boot. But at this level with size of a deal to be on the hook for they will sell anything to anyone to cover the $50.

We have seen plenty of dirt dug up on IEAH and Dutrow in the last couple of weeks. Now there is a new owqner. If the horse wins the Triple Crown he will be the first in 30 years and someone needs to say are you going to change anything

[covelj70]

I don\'t know what kind of number Brown just ran but why does it matter what the rest of the crop of 3 year olds is like, he\'s running numbers that would beat any crop, including last year\'s much heralded crop.  None of those guys (and gals) were running 4 and 5 negatives at this point last year.

I am getting a bit sick of hearing how bad this crop of 3 year olds is.  No crop of 3 year olds ever would have been able to beat him in these two races.

We\'ll see about the Belmont but the crop has nothing to do with what he has accomplished so far.

[covelj70]

I agree, if the success of Dutrow and Big Brown are only due to the drugs, then how come Pletcher\'s record in the triple crown is so bad?

I don\'t think these guys can juice the horses at the Derby and the Preakness with the same stuff they are able to get away with on a Thursday at Aqueduct.

[richiebee]

Covelj:

1) Nice score in the P4--Honk if ye like Donk!!.

2) Your post re Pletcher is a bit irritating because it once again casts
aspersions on a trainer who has saddled approx 20,000 runners with only one
positive. \"Tricky\'s\" record is not quite so pristine. The comparison is probably
not a valid one, at least in the way you have presented it.

3) A better question might be why some very good \"Hay oats and water\" guys--
like Allen Jerkens, like Bill Mott, like Charlie Whittingham, like Shug
McGaughey, like MacK Miller, etc--have historically had very little success in
the Triple Crown and Derby.

[ajkreider]

And anyway, I don\'t think you can tell the worth of a three year old crop in May.  For all we know, Casino Drive or Harlem Rocker will be the measure of an AGS or Street Sense.

[covelj70]

1) thanks so much for the message on the pk 4, it felt good after the beating I took at the derby, still down for the 2 races combined but at least within spitting distance now.

2) very fair point about Pletch, I shouldn\'t have singled him out, I was just trying to highlight that testing on the big weekends is alot tougher than the average day so I don\'t think what BB and Dutrow are doing in the triple crown is a result of drugs.

3) don\'t know about the others but Mott trains a few horses I own and I really don\'t think he is a juicer (I don\'t think that\'s what you were implying anyway so it\'s all good).

[fkach]

Assuming he comes out of the race OK and there are no unforeseen setbacks between now and the Belmont, I think the only thing that can beat this horse is the 12F or an act of God.

When Desormeaux gave him that little nudge at the quarter pole in both the Derby and Preakness, Big brown took off like a superior horse. When he gives him that little nudge in the Belmont, he would have already run 10F instead of 8F or so. He wouldn\'t be the first horse that didn\'t respond as well after running 10F instead of 8F. It\'s got to be a risk.

In the last 30 years or so quite a number of horses made it to the Belmont after winning the first two legs.  Most of them were average Grade 1 horses who managed to get the first two legs because they peaked at the right time or got a couple of good trips. But the racing gods have a way of resevering Triple Crown status to horses that are legitimately superior. IMO, in recent decades the only horse that won the first two legs that went down to defeat in the Belmont that deserved to win it all was Smarty Jones (Spectacular Bid before him). I think Big Brown deserves that status also. The good news for fans of Big Brown is that Desormeaux won\'t get caught up in a premature battle on the backstretch and no one is likely to sacrifice his horse to beat him because Jerry Bailey is already retired. ;-)

Most of you will probably laugh at me, but I made two bets in the Preakness.

In my post the other day I suggested that I thought BB had between a 70%-75% chance of winning and an 85%-90% chance of placing. The public really tends to screw up the place and show pools on races like these. So I took advantage of it.

I played a nice sized cold Big Brown/Yankee Bravo exacta (to potentially make a score) and I played 10x as much to place on Big Brown.

$2.60 on an 87.5% proposition is like stealing money (especially when you also get rebated). $2.40 was also quite profitable if I didn\'t get the extra 20 cents. Place betting is not for everyone (though I have advocated here and elsewhere quite often), but sometimes the smartest thing you can do is not do anything fancy when they are giving money away at a huge long term edge in the straight pools.