Hey Byrn and other Preakness views

[dpatent]

I know that I am using a different set of Sheets to handicap this race, but, having looked at both TG and Rags -- for what it\'s worth:

All of you using Hey Byrn -- There must be some form of mass hysteria propogating the Internet.  Hey Byrn is probably 10% to hit the board and 0% to Win.  Save your money.  On Rags none of his numbers put him in the money and on TG one of his races puts him somewhere, maybe.  Complete toss in my book.

As for Big Brown.  It is true that the last two horses to run close to this fast in the Derby -- Monarchos and Barbaro -- ran horrible or worse in the Preakness.  But I do not think BB is in the same category as these other horses.  Both Monarchos and Barbaro had a lot of spacing throughout their careers.  BB had one big gap to fix his hooves and he has run three consecutive races without a big break.  Hoof issues are not the same as general soundness issues so I don\'t read his pattern as such a flashing red light.  Additionally, either of his races prior to the Derby destroy this field (absent a big jump up by somebody -- very rare in the Preakness).  You\'re never happy to see a young 3 y.o. run that fast and a bounce is likely, but I don\'t think 2:5 is necessarily a price I want to play against.  Unlike TGJB I would put him at about 70% to Win.

Gayego is an interesting horse.  I\'m willing to forgive the Derby performance since it was a complete non-effort.  His Rag pattern is more favorable than his TG pattern and he will be involved in the pace early this time (sitting 2 or 3 most likely).  

Racecar Rhapsody is an interesting longshot, as is Stevil, though I would prefer RR at the same price.  Kentucky Bear is o.k. -- as fast as anyone not named BB but no pattern to gauge.  Finally BATB is competitive with no obvious negatives.

Those are my top 6 with BB sitting at the top.

If Hey Byrn hits the board, then congrats to you all!

[TGJB]

David-- the comments about HB would have been more interesting before he drew post 13. For a drink at Siros, BC or whatever track we\'re at at the same time-- Hey Byrn vs. Gayego, in terms of who gets the better number, not where they finish. We can do it using Rag numbers.

[TGJB]

And by the way, David, I look forward to your discussions of races in terms of both sets of figures on the Ragozin board. Ask yourself why it is okay to do it here, and not there.

I\'m not afraid of head-to-head comparisons, as you know, I have encouraged it for years. But I also don\'t like the way you sometimes play the game. After you do one of these on the other board you can come back and do it again here.

[fkach]

>It is true that the last two horses to run close to this fast in the Derby -- Monarchos and Barbaro -- ran horrible or worse in the Preakness. But I do not think BB is in the same category as these other horses<

Monarchos got an incedible pace to close off in his Derby and didn\'t figure to run back to that effort in the Preakness.

Barbaro broke down, but there is no way to be sure the breakdown was related to his Derby performance. Horses do take accidental bad steps and break down for reasons others than bounce theory.

BB is almost certainly not going to run back to his Sheet or TG figure because so damn much of it was ground loss. IMO ground was not nearly as much of a negative to him that day as the literal lengths it cost. IMO his chances of a true bounce (significant figure decline) are not much higher than for the typical horse with some soundness question marks. Some percentage of horses also simply misfire for reasons that have nothing to do with their prior performances. That\'s why he won\'t be 1-20.  

>Gayego is an interesting horse. I\'m willing to forgive the Derby performance since it was a complete non-effort. His Rag pattern is more favorable than his TG pattern and he will be involved in the pace early this time (sitting 2 or 3 most likely).<

IMO his last is a total toss.  He\'s been a consistent horse that didn\'t get favorable position from the 19 post in the Derby and then ran into some other trouble during the race. The outside post Saturday will not help, but he\'s going to get a much better trip than last time and will run a much better figure if not similar to his best.

[TGJB]

fkach-- You\'ve said the ground loss thing twice. That\'s enough.

[alydar61]

You guys really think Gayego wants any part of 1 3/16?

[ROBERT49]

although I am not strong on HB, I would not bet Gayego with your money. Just look at what he has done most recently-plus the travel! NO CHANCE.

[dpatent]

Jerry,

I\'m not trying to pit Rag v. TG or engage in any gamesmenship.  I\'m one of those people who wants as many inputs as possible (e.g., both sets of sheets + breeding + post, etc.) and then I\'ll make my decisions.

The reasons I like to post here are that people actually post here.  The Rag board is relatively dead.  I am happy to make the same post over there.  Watch for it in a few minutes.

I agree that we can\'t really have a meaningful discussion about HB now because of the post position.  I don\'t necessarily think it\'s that much of a negative but so be it.  I\'d have picked against him if he was in the 3 hole but he\'s not so I guess I can\'t prove much if he runs out.

Since they only pay you if your horse finishes in the money, whether Gayego or HB runs a better number isn\'t all that interesting to me, except as an academic exercise.  I think Gayego is most likely to run a 5-7 on Rag and HB 7 to 10 on Rag, so probably a 90%+ chance that Gayego runs better than HB.  Gayego is in the 12 hole so that post won\'t really help him that much relative to HB.

Given that Gayego is likely to be the second or third choice, there\'s not much value in using him in exotics absent at least one big long shot hitting, so I can\'t say I am super-excited about thinking he\'s one of the top six contenders.  Nonetheless I think you have to use him.

[TGJB]

Sure you can prove it, that\'s what numbers that take ground loss into account are for. And I\'m offering you a horse that will be half the price of mine even up.

There are reasons the other board is dead, and all the sophisticated people are over here. I seriously doubt there is any internet forum with as sophisticated a bunch of posters as this one, from several professional horseplayers and contest winners, to veternarians and other scientists.

[Uncle Buck]

Gayego was brought back to Hollywood after being beaten 35 lengths in Louisville to be given a rest with a focus on the Swaps Stakes. Then, all of the sudden, the connections start thinking, and we all know when human beings start thinking too much, they come up with all kinds of misguided opinions. So they ship him all the way back across country and he draws the 12 hole for Saturday\'s Preakness.

I think Gayego will run DEAD LAST in Baltimore. I hope I\'m wrong as he\'s a nice colt and could be useful this year but they made a really bad choice IMO.

[covelj70]

I can\'t believe everyone is wasting so much time on Gayego.

This idea that his Derby was a non effort is just plain wrong.

Anyone look at the bloodhorse marker by marker snapshot of the race?  The horse ran his heart out for a mile and then collapsed (which is exactly what his breeding says he should do against good horses).  

He didn\'t outrun his pedigree in the Arkansas Derby, he just ran against a bunch of bad horses.

Why not jsut bring Bob Black Jack cross crountry again as well.  Heck, he only ran hard for 1 1/16 before collapsing, that effort shouldn\'t have taken alot out of him.....

Bringing a horse that wasn\'t bred for the classic distances back on such short rest is just plain irresponsible.  This will probably be the last time we see this horse this year which is ashame.

[dpatent]

The food is better there, but the conversation is better here.

[TGJB]

Seems unlikely on the face of it, doesn\'t it David? Wouldn\'t all those pros and contest winners be using Ragozin, and talking sophisticated handicapping and such using his data, which would mean on his site?

[Silver Charm]

Agree Robert. There are a couple of others with more value and less hype. Racecar Rhapsody, Riley Tucker and Giant Moon are useful plays under BB.

There only a couple of A\'s in the race and BB figures to sit just off one of them. He needs to be pretty drained from the Derby to be completely off the board in here. If this was the Derby field different story.

Kentucky Bear will be pretty well bet but as of now is no faster than any of the three above but is usable as a late developing sort.

[fkach]

\"There only a couple of A\'s in the race and BB figures to sit just off one of them\"

I suspect that BB is either going for the lead immediately or he\'ll sit off Tres Borrachos for awhile before he takes over. It made sense to try to rate last time because they didn\'t want to use the horse hard trying to clear all the other speeds inside him from the 20 post. This time, the only potential speed inside him is TB. If he can\'t put that one away whenever he wants, then he\'s not himself anyway.  

The oustide speeds are not unrateable. I think they will try to get good position, but not use themselves hard to get the lead. They are better off sitting off BB and running for 2nd or 3rd instead of trying to win. If he happens to throw in a stinker, they are still in a great position to win. But if they try to win by outrunning him, he goes, and he\'s sharp, they are off the board. They would be dumb to go hard.

I make BB about 70%-75% to win and 85%-90% to be first or second.

I can\'t see a trip that beats him because he can go or take back and will almost certainly get good position.

I can\'t see a horse I believe is even reasonably likely to move past him.

IMO, the only way he loses is if gets a \"dwelt at the start\", \"sandwiched\" etc... type trip, gets hurt accidentally, or experiences a physical bounce. I can\'t even see the latter as a very high probability event given that he\'s been a legitimately superior horse from the first day he hit the track and this is  his 3rd race off a layoff (often a peak race). I don\'t think these efforts have been as tough on him or as out of line with his natural ability as in some other cases.

Another thing to consider is the economics. His stud deal fell through today. He\'s not going to be sold until after the Preakness. I don\'t know enough about the values to make an accurate estimate, but it seems like a monumental risk to run this horse unless you are almost certain he\'s going to fire his \"A\" race or close. In the papers they are talking about his value being 40 to 50 million off the Derby.

How much incremental value is to gained by a win (IMO not much) vs. lost by a bad defeat (potentially a lot)?

The math looks bad to me.  If you thought the horse might bounce badly or wasn\'t doing really well would you consider making an excuse to pass?  I might.

Dutrow is a smart guy. I don\'t care what he\'s saying in the papers. IMO, he expects this horse to win easily despite the effort in the Derby otherwise he wouldn\'t be running.