Colonel John fires big Work on the Surface

[MonmouthGuy]

To your point, didn\'t Big Truck fire a bullet on the poly before the Blue Grass?

This Kentucky Derby looks like the most wide open field I have ever seen.  The infield drunks may be betting BB-CJ exactas, but there are some very live longshots that are training well, have two year old foundations and have run on dirt before. I would be shocked if the chalk runs 1-2.

[smalltimer]

Wrongly,
For those that like Smooth Air, the 42% win pct on mud would give them more reason to like the horse.

[Uncle Buck]

Colonel John really explodes the last 200 yards of this work. You can visually see him lower his head and rapidly accelerate. Looks to be feeling really good. Watch the work here:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos

[Sandreadis]

FWIW. Gary Stevens commented on the SA Derby coverage that CJ\'s long stride and 1 run style is much better suited for the dirt. I didn\'t believe him them but that work sure seemed to confirm his assessment.
What would a head to head bet between BB/CJ look like? Could you get 2/1 on CJ?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

CJ may not be second choice. Theres a lot of Pyro backers out there. The work is relevant because there was no indication how CJ would handle dirt. Now there is.

I\'ve been enamored with the fillies from the time they were running faster than the colts on the same card. CJ worked 2-3 clicks faster and galloped out to six furlongs about 6 and 11 clicks faster than the fillies. It was a marvelous display by any measure. I thought Eight Belles went faster midway through her work and may have eased herself near the wire, (This was confirmed by the clockers internal splits). If Eight Belles has been easing herself (in her races too) and its not fatigue, she\'s gonna be a handful.  

Look at her fly as she appears from behind the tent canopy. This is a big filly but she can scoot. Check out how her ears go up near the wire after shes passed the horses working in the middle of the track. She was definitely gearing herself down where CJ was still on the muscle:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/videos/1268

http://www.drf.com/news/article/94062.html

Normally, the Churchill training track is dull compared to what they find Derby Day. It was glib Sunday, closer to the souped up version they put out for the Derby.

Many things can happen between now and Saturday. CJ could draw far outside or the 1 hole. It could rain. But horses heading for big Derby efforts put in good Derby works and CJ certainly did,as many Derby winners do. I\'ll check on it, but to this point, I believe his work stands as the yardstick to measure the other\'s, with Eight Belles work following just behind with some degree of interpretation.  

  MonmouthGuy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To your point, didn\'t Big Truck fire a bullet on
> the poly before the Blue Grass?
>
> This Kentucky Derby looks like the most wide open
> field I have ever seen.  The infield drunks may be
> betting BB-CJ exactas, but there are some very
> live longshots that are training well, have two
> year old foundations and have run on dirt before.
> I would be shocked if the chalk runs 1-2.

[ronwar]

How do you feel about the jock showing her the stick towards the wire?  Why would he/she do that?  To keep her focused?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Ronwar, this is part of the fun isn\'t it?

I don\'t purport to be the best trip watcher ever. I have no idea why these animals do what they do, I consider it a success when I see them doing it.

I think Eight Belles is a big ole talented gangly filly that is still learning.  Here is a link to her race clips.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/contenders/eight-belles

As recently as December 23rd she was caught because she failed to change leads. I think she still gets on the wrong lead now and then. In the workout you can see her looking all over the place at the head of the lane. I\'m assuming the Jock does show her the whip to try and get her to focus, believing that she gets disinterested at times, but I\'m not sure. He certainly doesn\'t hit her with it. Maybe he\'s just positioning it for a left handed tattoo in case she veers in like she did in the Fantasy. In the work, her ears were up and she has her head angled to the right somewhat, but she does that in her clips. It may be shes getting tired late.

In the Fantasy her Jock yanks her to the right after she veers in at the wire. The momentum interruption helps Pure Clan blow by her after the wire. It may be she shuts down when the Jock doesn\'t hand ride her. It would be nice if we had a full 9 pole race, but we don\'t. Still, she was a step slow from the gate and ran wide the whole way and with Oaklawn\'s shortish stretch finished up well.

Its a tough call. Is she all in at the 8.5 poles or is she smart enough to know the running is over at the wire and she\'s shutting down?

I\'ll say this, if shes got more distance in her, she\'s gonna give the boys fits.

ronwar Wrote:
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> How do you feel about the jock showing her the
> stick towards the wire?  Why would he/she do that?
>  To keep her focused?

[Flighted Iron]

Would you say it was a question of him loving it or having the ability to handle
it? If you want to say \"he doesn\'t love it\" that\'s fine.

[Flighted Iron]

You\'re saying he liked the track on the day of the work and then 4 days later
he hated the track? And this is the only reason he ran so poorly? Million ways
a horse will lose and most of them we humans really don\'t know about.Possibly the
work itself was the causing factor?Possibly ready to bounce? Larger field and no
pace to run at? Maybe looked out of his stall that day and thought $#@! it,I don\'t
feel like doing $#@) today?

My point is whether you like CJ or not it\'s probably not the surface that will
lead to his downfall.