So That's How He Did It

[Mall]

The most important words from the drf & NY Times\' articles are \"or accomplices\" and \"part of a group.\" It\'s obviously a guess at this point, but it seems to me that the most likely scenarios are an inside or mob operation.

[HP]

Yesterday

\"Donald Groth, the chairman of Catskill OTB, which is in upstate New York, said that the winning bettor is a 29-year-old Maryland resident who placed the wagers by phone. The bettor has requested anonymity, Groth said. He said that \"there is nothing to indicate that this was anything but a very good day for our customer.\"

\"I know why you\'re suspicious, but that\'s not my job,\" Groth said. \"I\'m familiar enough with the customer that I believe this is legitimate.\"\"

Today (NY Times)

\"The (winning) bettor opened the account within the past two weeks, Catskill OTB officials said.\"

Now either Mr. Groth is the greatest phone account rep ever or this has been some two weeks for him to say \"I\'m familiar enough with the customer...\" This guy is such a big player with a $2 pick 3 for $192?

And he was accidently credited with making a $12 play for $1,152? If this is all true, I want to scratch this guy for luck, because it\'s the equivalent of being struck by Halley\'s Comet, on a day when Halley\'s Comet slowed down enough to hand you a few million dollars, which I suppose is possible. Not only do you pull the rabbit out of the hat but you get credit for hitting it extra times? Either way it\'s a story.

HP

[JR]

Sorry man, but you are dead wrong on this. Call me a fool, a mooch or whatever, but my wife and I will spend an entire week in Saratoga doing nothing but charting every dollar change in every combination of exactas and doubles from the opening bell to the closing bell, just looking for where the late money goes. It is incredibly reliable. And when some of these combos get whacked, you just shake your head and go bet em. I have seen double and exacta prices cut almost in half in the last tick. That\'s a lot of bread at a major track.

[JimP]

I think we may be prematurely indicting the fellow who hit the BC Pick 6. I understand he had the following winning ticket:

5th - Domedriver
6th - Orientate
7th - Starine
8th - Vindication
9th - All
10th - All

I don\'t see that as too farfetched. I had win tickets on Domedriver and Starine myself. They did offer some value at the odds. The other two (Orientate and Vindication) were short-priced top contenders. I guess I can see how someone might have put this combination together.

While  I will not be shocked if the investigation turns up some illegal activities, I\'m not jumping to that conclusion just yet. Maybe this story will turn out to be a great one for racing -\'Small Time Bettor Hits Big Score\'. Maybe.

[HP]

It\'s possible he hit it fair and square. No question. We\'ll see. I don\'t have the power to actually indict, although I often wish I did. HP

[kev]

But why take a \"all\" in the Turf High C. was the lowest price lock of the day.

[Catalin]

I might have loved Domedriver more than anyone.  Those on this board that I know   off-line can confirm that I had been touting him for two weeks.  There\'s still NO WAY you single that horse in conjunction with Starine (or even Vindication) and play Perfect Soul and Dollar Bill in the later races.

Anyone that thinks this bet was above board probably believes Martha Stewart just had a hunch about ImClone, or that Hillary Clinton is an expert pork belly trader.

[Alydar in California]

Catalin wrote: \"I might have loved Domedriver more than anyone. Those on this board that I know off-line can confirm that I had been touting him for two weeks. There\'s still NO WAY you single that horse in conjunction with Starine\"

  Those on this board that I know off-line can confirm that for two weeks I was saying that anyone who didn\'t single Domedriver is an idiot who should stick to needlepoint.

[HP]

Catalin deserves all the credit in the world for Domedriver and I\'m sure he realizes how lucky he is given The Rock\'s performance, which should result in one of the best grass numbers ever. He was at least 3-4 wide into the first turn and I don\'t know how you figure in his avoidance of Landseer\'s breakdown at the top of the stretch. I will admit to eating crow since I thought The Rock was no great shakes. HP

[Alydar in California]

As I told my off-line friends, anyone who didn\'t know the Rock would get precisely that trip is an idiot.

[Catalin]

HP:

Honestly, I liked him early on because I thought he had run a number two back as fast as RoG did in beating Banks Hill.

I loved him after the draw because I estimated that Rock would lose somewhere between 3.5 to 4.5 paths (worth 2 to 2 1/2 pts at 8F) starting from PP10 on an 8F course.  The results indicate to me that

a)  my ground loss estimate was pretty good
b)  Rock is better than I thought and \'Driver was very lucky to win.

Alydar:  I wasn\'t gloating.  My point was that I thought I had more insight into Domedriver\'s ability than most and we didn\'t make him anymore than a \"B\" horse in the PK6 syndicate we played (and that was based on everyone\'s blind faith in me that the number I had given him was right).  I\'ll bet after his win 80-90% of the pool was out. There\'s just NO WAY you could have possibly singled this horse.  Unless of course you waited until 3:30 to place your bet.

[Alydar in California]

Catalin: In what way is your Euro methodology (that f## word again) better than JB\'s and Friedman\'s?

[cheapclaimer]

Link to the whole story at the drf.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/41894.html

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Most important excerpt:

Pick six data is routinely delayed

The pick six appears particularly vulnerable to computer manipulation because of the way data is transmitted from many different sources into commingled parimutuel pools. According to mutuel managers at prominent tracks, the information regarding the amounts of pick six wagers is transmitted the instant a wager is placed, but the actual structure of the bet, including the specific horses that are being used, is not transmitted until after the fourth race is run in the pick six sequence.

The data is not transmitted all at once because pick six wagers include so many potential combinations that the size of the computer files could create traffic problems in the sophisticated totalisator network that links tracks across the country and continually updates wagering information. Instead, only the complete information from tickets still \"live\" after four races is transmitted into the commingled pools before the fifth race.

Window of opportunity for fraud

According to some officials, the difference creates a window of opportunity - sometimes lasting up to 2 1/2 hours - in which data is being stored and when a computer expert or someone with access to the pools could manipulate specific bets. Since the actual numbers of the horses used in each bet do not have to be communicated to other sites until after the fourth race, the ideal way for a computer expert to rig a pick six bet at minimum cost would be to use the single-single-single-single-all-all ticket structure.

So when the winning Breeders\' Cup pick six ticket came back too light, it instantly set off alarms.

\"According to all the scam theorists I\'ve talked to,\" said one official close to the investigation, \"the money would go in at the right time, but the horses would not get selected until after the fourth leg has been run. That\'s exactly what we saw here.\"

**************************************

The article speculates that there may have been similar instances of delayed \"Final picks\" at Saratoga with large carryovers.

Had they had used only one ticket, no one would have been the wiser, they got greedy.

jb

[Alydar in California]

Catalin: In what way is your Euro methodology (that f## word again) better than JB\'s and Friedman\'s?

[mineola]

Was this guy using the tinytim terminal- it hooks up to your phone and is very small.
It could explain how he missed the amount and
also how come they \"knew\" him at catskill
otb- I think theres an addtl screening process on getting this.
I havent looked at the tinytims in 10 yrs or so when they 1st came out- Im sure there are
many other options with the betting- anyone know.
see also interbets.com the catskill otb site
for more info.
Jd