War Pass out!

[ronwar]

That changes things just a tad doesn\'t?

http://www.drf.com/news/article/93846.html

[miff]

Ron,

Too bad, a stone toss that would have taken some money.


Mike

[smalltimer]

ronwar,
Yep, changes things.  At this early point, I\'m saying it makes Brown even more enigmatic to figure.  We all know Desormeaux would have War Pass in his sights by the backstretch.  Does that mean Kent is willing to lay a little closer now, or just drop over and get a nice spot and stalk?
Strategy is a wonderful thing...when it works.
My play against Brown just got better.
Thanks for the quick info on War Pass.  Now I can get to changing the pace scenario.

[MonmouthGuy]

Personally, I think a play against Brown just got worse.  The chances of him getting hooked and cooked by War Pass is out the window.

[ronwar]

Very true.  If you don\'t like BB, this thing is wide WIDE open. The slow rat that has got\'n my attention is Gayego.  Everyone talks about the runner up, but despite the breeding he has as good as chance as any.

[smalltimer]

Monmouth Guy,
That\'s entirely possible.  I just can\'t believe that Kent\'s gonna send that colt and try to wire the field.  We\'ve all seen it done, but we\'ve also seen some good ones get cooked on the front end too.  It\'s gonna be interesting to see what unfolds.  Whichever way you ultimately decide to play, good luck.

[smalltimer]

ronwar,
It wouldn\'t be fair for me to tell you Mike Smith and I are good friends.
It would kinda spoil the fun leading up to the race.
At some point in the next couple weeks, if you\'d like, I\'ll drop you a personal email and tell you what I personally think of the race.
Have a good one

[ronwar]

Well small, you have definately peaked my interest.  I look forward to your comments.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Everybody its a good thing
Everybody wants a good thing
Everybody aint it true that
Everybodys looking for the same thing

Aint it true theres just no doubt
Theres some things that you cant do without
And thats good

Everybodys just like you its true
Everybody wants a good thing too

Now lets have a great big hand
For everybody who can understand
Lifes a bee without a buzz
Its going great till you get stung
And let us not forget to toast
Everyone who might have missed the boat
And to everybody else who waits
Until the next one sails in again

Everybody its a good thing
Aint it true its a monumental good thing



smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ronwar,
> Yep, changes things.  At this early point, I\'m
> saying it makes Brown even more enigmatic to
> figure.  We all know Desormeaux would have War
> Pass in his sights by the backstretch.  Does that
> mean Kent is willing to lay a little closer now,
> or just drop over and get a nice spot and stalk?
> Strategy is a wonderful thing...when it works.
> My play against Brown just got better.
> Thanks for the quick info on War Pass.  Now I can
> get to changing the pace scenario.

[smalltimer]

ronwar,
We all know it\'s w-a-y too early to get Derby fever.  What happens if Brown takes a bad step during his next work?  Which others are gonna not like the CD surface?
I try to approach a major horseracing event like this with the idea that any horse, aka War Pass today, could be ruled out at any time.  Then what\'s a guy to do? Panic?  Not me, I\'m handicapping all the legitimate contenders while not completely ignoring the others.  I\'ll have some opinions just like the next guy, and for those that agree or disagree, its all good, cause some of us will look brilliant and others of us will look like fools when its all over.  Won\'t change my perception of my ability to handicap, and I certainly won\'t dog the guys who get it wrong.  It\'d be great if everyone can make some coin in the race.
Throughtout time, great jocks have been on the real deal, the world beater, and still not gotten it done the first Sat in May.  I\'m not sharing any secrets when I say that race and any racehorse in it can go up in smoke in the first 30 seconds. That\'s what makes it so compelling.
The fact that I\'m gonna play against Brown doesn\'t mean I don\'t think he looks like the obvious choice, but, I\'m playing the race to make some real money.  Everything about Brown says \"lack of value\", although, in the Derby there generally is great value attached because of the size of the field, etc, etc.
I\'ve been playing Mike Smith since he was a bugboy at AkSarBen back in the decade of the 80\'s.  I really like Mike. He\'s hard working, really humble and I think based on the last couple weeks, people know he can still ride top horses.
I\'m heading to the track, but Garrett Gomez began riding in my podunk town when he was 17.  It didn\'t take me long to know this kid could ride, in fact, I said one day, \"you could put a champagne glass on his back and he wouldn\'t spill a drop.\"  To this day, Garrett rides what I call real quiet in the saddle.
Wish me luck, I\'m going ponying.
That for reply ronwar, and my offer stands for a personal message in 10 days or so.

[smalltimer]

Chuckles,
whatever you said, its beyond my scope..

[jimbo66]

War Pass being out does do a few things.

1.  As long as War Pass was in the starting gate he had a \"puncher\'s chance\" to win.  He had that negative 3 last year, which means he was the ONLY horse in this race that could run with Big Brown, if both horses ran their best figures.  Now, I didn\'t like War Pass, and I thought he was a solid bet against off what seemed to be an \"x-x-x\" pattern this year, but we also know that Jerry liked the horse and gave him at least as good a shot as Big Brown to win, while just one person\'s opinion, the fact that it was somebody who does this for a living, means the horse would likely had garnered some attention at the windows from alot of people.

2.  I know this is a Thorograph board, but this defection also affects the PACE of the race.  (although now that we have \"race shapes\", PACE doesn\'t have to be a 4 letter word here!!  Depending on draw and break, it would have seemed pretty likely to me that War Pass would have cut out the fractions on Derby day.  To me, that greatly mitigated the chance of any of the other pace horses except Big Brown, to win the race.  Without having seen the last figures of Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal, Bob\'s Blackjack, or Gayego, I would likely not have used them in the race, as it seems to be their best races were on or near the lead.  And with War Pass needing the lead, Kent feeling compelled to not let them get away from him early, plus the presence of those 4 or 5 other speeds, it started to look like the Monarchos Derby to me.  That changes now.  I need to see the figures of some of these other speeds.  If he ran fast enough in the Illinois Derby and gets a cozy inside draw, maybe Recapturetheglory can do a War Emblem.

3.  Not sure who posted it, but whoever came up with the logic that War Pass being out makes Big Brown a BIGGER bet against is probably just looking for reasons to bet against Big Brown.  Which is fine, because there ARE reasons to bet against Big Brown, but War Pass being out is NOT one of them.  How can the fact that the horse most likely to make the pace suicidal early and also the only horse with a top in the same league as Big Brown, NOT being in the race, make things harder on Big Brown?  I guess you could argue \"odds board\", but I would expect this actually has minimal impact on the odds board.  Because of what has happened with favorites over the last 30 years in the Derby, there are a fairly large number of players who won\'t bet the favorite under any circumstances.  I don\'t see Big Brown going off at least than 2-1 in a 20 horse fields, no matter who scratches.

I don\'t think too many War Pass backers are now going to jump on the Big Brown bandwagon.  I would bet dollars to donuts that TGJB doesn\'t switch from his 14-1 on War Pass to Big Brown.  As a matter of fact, I probably don\'t have to buy the seminar this year, although I will anyway.  I can hear the comments now.  \"Solid two year old campaign for Pyro, getting down to a very fast top in his last race.  IF you draw a line through the polytrack race, which in today\'s racing game is easy to do, Pyro is pointing right back at his negative 1, which when you factor in the very likely bounce of Big Brown, it makes Pyro the most likely winner of the Derby and you will get 8-1 instead of the 4-1 you would have gotten had Pyro run well on Poly.\"

JB, sorry for pre-plagiarizing you, whether I am right or wrong!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Insightful analysis Jimbo.

I think you hit the nail on the head. War Pass would have run whatever fraction necessary to maintain his lead. The others would have run to stay close. War Pass\'s absence means that in all likelihood Recapturetheglory or Massive Drama will set the pace and it will likely be clicks slower, enabling the stalkers to run a couple clicks slower too.

Each year I read heartbreak stories of how future bets have tubed. With every future you also dutch your odds. This year, I\'ve seen the host lose a couple.  I\'ve seen Oaks futures on Eight Belles stand in mortal jeopardy. I know its fun to select the winner early and have done so, but I learned my lesson on Anees. That bath wrote me off future bets forever. Pick the winner on race day and factor the exotics correctly and you can dwarf the return on any future. (I also have to say, I agreed that War Pass had a big chance at 14-1 and I would have included him in all non win spots. Now my wager got easier.)

Pyro\'s sheet is anything but forward looking. And you need double digit odds to think seriously about including him. The value in this Derby is dumping Pyro from all paying spots.

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> War Pass being out does do a few things.
>
> 1.  As long as War Pass was in the starting gate
> he had a \"puncher\'s chance\" to win.  He had that
> negative 3 last year, which means he was the ONLY
> horse in this race that could run with Big Brown,
> if both horses ran their best figures.  Now, I
> didn\'t like War Pass, and I thought he was a solid
> bet against off what seemed to be an \"x-x-x\"
> pattern this year, but we also know that Jerry
> liked the horse and gave him at least as good a
> shot as Big Brown to win, while just one person\'s
> opinion, the fact that it was somebody who does
> this for a living, means the horse would likely
> had garnered some attention at the windows from
> alot of people.
>
> 2.  I know this is a Thorograph board, but this
> defection also affects the PACE of the race.
> (although now that we have \"race shapes\", PACE
> doesn\'t have to be a 4 letter word here!!
> Depending on draw and break, it would have seemed
> pretty likely to me that War Pass would have cut
> out the fractions on Derby day.  To me, that
> greatly mitigated the chance of any of the other
> pace horses except Big Brown, to win the race.
> Without having seen the last figures of
> Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal, Bob\'s Blackjack, or
> Gayego, I would likely not have used them in the
> race, as it seems to be their best races were on
> or near the lead.  And with War Pass needing the
> lead, Kent feeling compelled to not let them get
> away from him early, plus the presence of those 4
> or 5 other speeds, it started to look like the
> Monarchos Derby to me.  That changes now.  I need
> to see the figures of some of these other speeds.
> If he ran fast enough in the Illinois Derby and
> gets a cozy inside draw, maybe Recapturetheglory
> can do a War Emblem.
>
> 3.  Not sure who posted it, but whoever came up
> with the logic that War Pass being out makes Big
> Brown a BIGGER bet against is probably just
> looking for reasons to bet against Big Brown.
> Which is fine, because there ARE reasons to bet
> against Big Brown, but War Pass being out is NOT
> one of them.  How can the fact that the horse most
> likely to make the pace suicidal early and also
> the only horse with a top in the same league as
> Big Brown, NOT being in the race, make things
> harder on Big Brown?  I guess you could argue
> \"odds board\", but I would expect this actually has
> minimal impact on the odds board.  Because of what
> has happened with favorites over the last 30 years
> in the Derby, there are a fairly large number of
> players who won\'t bet the favorite under any
> circumstances.  I don\'t see Big Brown going off at
> least than 2-1 in a 20 horse fields, no matter who
> scratches.
>
> I don\'t think too many War Pass backers are now
> going to jump on the Big Brown bandwagon.  I would
> bet dollars to donuts that TGJB doesn\'t switch
> from his 14-1 on War Pass to Big Brown.  As a
> matter of fact, I probably don\'t have to buy the
> seminar this year, although I will anyway.  I can
> hear the comments now.  \"Solid two year old
> campaign for Pyro, getting down to a very fast top
> in his last race.  IF you draw a line through the
> polytrack race, which in today\'s racing game is
> easy to do, Pyro is pointing right back at his
> negative 1, which when you factor in the very
> likely bounce of Big Brown, it makes Pyro the most
> likely winner of the Derby and you will get 8-1
> instead of the 4-1 you would have gotten had Pyro
> run well on Poly.\"
>
> JB, sorry for pre-plagiarizing you, whether I am
> right or wrong!

[BitPlayer]

Jimbo -

Have a look at the fig for Atoned in the ROTW and you\'ll see what TGJB meant when he posted that he had the Illinois Derby slower than others.

[Silver Charm]

Monba-Maria\'s Mon
Cowboy Cal-Giants Causeway
Kentucky Bear-Mr Greeley
Stevil-Maria\'s Mon

These are all Polytrack Sires. Forget the PP\'s a wager on just this facet could have been profitable.

So if Pyro is out of Pulpit a son of AP Indy, also a very good Polytrack Sire (Adriano) why didn\'t he run better?

Perhaps a case to toss the horse completely. He could/should have run better. Or perhaps the others have gotten better and he hasn\'t.