any idea on the ROTW?

[Michael D.]

.

[TGJB]

Lexington, haven\'t started it yet.

[ronwar]

Will you be including the race shapes in your analysis?  I would love to see how you would incorporate it in your handicapping.  Thanks

[TGJB]

I\'ll see what I can do.

[TreadHead]

Contrary to what the sour grape complainers on here say, Keeneland has been speed speed and more speed in routes the last week (today was ridiculous if you look at the charts.  Take the Bluegrass too).  And the rail looks pretty good the past couple days too.

Looking at the race shape, it doesn\'t seem like the front ends are going to be that disadvantaged and Riley Tucker might be able to get himself to the rail and get in good position as well.  Unless the biases change during the day from what they have been, I might be tempted to key Riley Tucker and use the other 3 speed horses, possibly Big Glen from the back (whose line reminds me a lot of what Invisible Ink\'s did going into the Derby).

[Michael D.]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Contrary to what the sour grape complainers on
> here say, Keeneland has been speed speed and more
> speed in routes the last week (today was
> ridiculous if you look at the charts.  Take the
> Bluegrass too).  And the rail looks pretty good
> the past couple days too.
>
> Looking at the race shape, it doesn\'t seem like
> the front ends are going to be that disadvantaged
> and Riley Tucker might be able to get himself to
> the rail and get in good position as well.  Unless
> the biases change during the day from what they
> have been, I might be tempted to key Riley Tucker
> and use the other 3 speed horses, possibly Big
> Glen from the back (whose line reminds me a lot of
> what Invisible Ink\'s did going into the Derby).


RT is my key at 12-1 ml.

a great poly run back in Sept. last was ok in a slow paced race.

I worry about the trip though. does the colt take off with blinkers, pulling JR 4 wide around the 2, 3, and 4? or does he tuck in 2w? I\'m not sure there\'s much room for error here - 1m to 1 1/16 appears to be this colt\'s limit. we don\'t need an extra 60 feet.

good luck Tread.

[spa]

Rule #1    a dead rail trip moves a horse up.........big bet today!