2008 Kentucky Derby: This Big Brown Hype is Quite Ridiculous

[belveondarockz]

in my scattered fashion     :

champions dont automatically win!many do though! your missing the point p dub.  THIS YEAR.. THIS RACE.. THIS SITUATION... wp has a potential of a negative 3.  im comparing this to a similar situation to street sense last year. street sense ran a top effort and ran a few off races then fired derby day. im not saying wp will do the same but the horses in the field this year look pretty terrible to be honest with you and many of the faster horses just ran new tops last out.  

about el gato malo... yes he has lost to colonel john twice but a 3-4 point improvement off his top effort isnt out of the question.. it is in question with colonel john.. he ran a top race and i have him regressing off that last effort.  so in this ONE situation i would play el gato in front of colonel john at bigger and HUGE odds and take my chances.  the horse has plenty of room for improvement.. i believe only 2-3 points overall improvement.

as far as tomcito he has won those big races in another country yes i agree.  i would think a horse like that could naturaly improve off those 2 yo top numbers as they should so maybe he needed one out before firing a nice race?!  i dunno but compared to the field i think he has a much better shot to do so then many of the ones in here bc they were faster figures...wp has off efforts that beat most in this field and im not trying to say that this negative 3 is god, but its a number he has a possibility of running too (at great odds probably about 7 to 1 or so or higher that day) and if not that wouldnt u think a \"0 to a neg 2\" would be good here?

i cant see comparing the patriots to this situation?!  every year in football is different just as every race presents a new situation. the edge to me in this years race is that many horses plain out suck and would need huge improvements to win.  its a longshot...tooo long.  il take a shot with the proven horse!  everyone keeps talking about the wood but what no one says is that he can actually IMPROVE off that effort.  u PROBABLY and MOST likely cant say that about Tale of Ekati! it took the poor horse 5 or so efforts to go forward and now with 4 weeks off comes off a race its never done before.  il confidently say thatll be a bounce imo.

i will agree with you that i shouldnt compare wp to ghostzapper, midnight lute or saint liam but im just trying to point out that although a horse like Commendable beat saint liam in stakes races or a horse like brother derek beat midnight lute (as an example) or a dominican horse beat street sense, when it came down to it, many have run championship effforts in championship races and stepped up like they proved previously.  and by previously i mean an effort that was run that the horse could (with plenty of evidence and factors such as rest, condition and all) run back to and destroy the field or it be the best number in that particular race and be the best bet.

the tampa bay race was a complete toss out race imo and just take a pen and scribble the number!

it amazes me that you buy this product and dont take the numbers for what they are.. ive noticed many people in this forum say.. well a horse ran a \"6\" (as an example going 6f and an \"8\" going a mile and a 1/16 so the horse is \"better\" going shorter.  How can that be true?!  the horse couldve ran an 8 cause it reacted slightly to the 6 or it couldve went forward off of a \"9\" off effort.  i hear people saying the same thing about slop efforts.. it makes me sick.  You all pay for this accurate information.. u see a negative 3 for wp and then u make EXCUSES for discounting the information.  my advice is that you take the number for what it is and stop discounting efforts (unless there is a true and valid reason to discount an effort),,, a sloppy track to me does not qualify for a discounted effort imo unless a horse specifically shows that he hates the slop and runs bad every time.  a PRIME example of what im talking about is that race of the week!  look at the numbers.. the pick of the week is a horse that bounced last time out 5 points! in this case, i dont care if its 190 days ago or 32 days ago or 3 days ago!  and i dont care of the fact that it bounced going on a soft turf route! it bounce is a bounce! rebellion has run on the turf before and has done better....how do u play a horse TO WIN or make him a key, that has NO INDICATION at all to run a top effort or ANY decent effort for that matter at 6 to 1 odds!? cause of a trainer?! or rest?!  u have to be joking me..yea il take a shot with rebellion being 25 to 1 lightly.. other than that i just dont see it.  the horses in the race would have to be pretty bad for me to think he would run a winning effort.

anyways, this is pretty fun going back and forth with our opinions..  i have no axes here either p dub and i do agree that my thoughts are scattered at times and i try to put light to what i say. i cant make promises with the drinkin.. i sure do heart premium voooodka!   =D

[P-Dub]

Belve,
You\'re a good dude. Most people would have taken offense at my post and blasted me.  I still disagree with some of your points, but I sure the hell aint right all the time. Thnks for taking some of my smartass comments in the spirt they were intended to be. No harm meant, just having fun with you.  You love the horses like most of us around here.

Caught Rascal Flatts in SJ tonight (my girl likes country music) and it wasn\'t a bad show.  Time for me to get some shuteye.  Looking forward to the races tom orrow.  Good Luck.....someday we\'ll hook up and the first belv is on me.

[alm]

Sifting through this group of posts has been interesting...some smart stuff.  

I want to react to your West Coast bias post...I like Col John as a possibility because this may be the year in which we learn something about the shift from surface to surface.  This horse will supply the data.  I don\'t see how you can discount him until he makes the change.

Overall, however, I think you are right about Pyro and I hope he does NOT handle the synth at Keeneland very well...it might be the only way we get odds on him in the Derby.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Hey!

How did I get involved in this?

belveondarockz has an opinion. He loves War Pass and Doesn\'t like a bunch of others.

I will say this. I thought Tale of Ekati had it all his own way in the Wood and even in victory, did not look impressive.

The Wood reminds me somewhat of the 1997 Santa Anita Derby. In that race a good horse was exposed to a severe pace test and acquitted himself even in defeat. Which is NOT to say I like War Pass to win.

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> belveondarockz Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > they will all be wobbling like drunks imo
>
> You should know.
>
> < and as far as the 7 to 1 and 5 to 1 situation it
> doesnt
> > matter.. big brown \"donkey\", colonel \"too slow
> so
> > il sit on the\" john, and pyro aka \"let me fan
> 24
> > wide around all the horses on the final turn
> and
> > try to win the roses\" are all TOSSES to win
> this
> > year.
>
> Mike,
> Can you imagine what this board will look like if
> War Pass somehow manages to win?? ( As unlikely as
> it is).
>
> Belv,
> You are dissing some horses that have run pretty
> well. You\'re starting to sound like a nit. Your
> comments above sound like they came from someone
> too young to drink Belv.
>
>
> Giacomo was supposed to be too slow. How did he do
> on Derby Day?? Lots of variables come into play
> besides figures.  Again, lets see how Colonel John
> handles the strip in workouts before you throw him
> out.  He\'s gonna win me a couple drinks from Miff.
>  And after reading some of your posts,  it sure as
> hell won\'t be belvedere.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

PDub,

A horse can certainly relish slop and run a big effort he can\'t repeat on dry footing.

What can also happen is that a large percentage of the runners can run non representative races on the slop and thus become poor or inaccurate  extrapolation tools. So rather than say 80% of the field running their race for \"figure corroboration\" purposes, only two or three horses run their race and a big number is assigned in part upon the beaten lengths of the off form losers. Whats really horrific is if only 1 horse runs it race. In that event its possible to have a very bad apple assigned that can spoil other apples for races to come.

belveondarockz Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> in my scattered fashion     :
>
> champions dont automatically win!many do though!
> your missing the point p dub.  THIS YEAR.. THIS
> RACE.. THIS SITUATION... wp has a potential of a
> negative 3.  im comparing this to a similar
> situation to street sense last year. street sense
> ran a top effort and ran a few off races then
> fired derby day. im not saying wp will do the same
> but the horses in the field this year look pretty
> terrible to be honest with you and many of the
> faster horses just ran new tops last out.  
>
> about el gato malo... yes he has lost to colonel
> john twice but a 3-4 point improvement off his top
> effort isnt out of the question.. it is in
> question with colonel john.. he ran a top race and
> i have him regressing off that last effort.  so in
> this ONE situation i would play el gato in front
> of colonel john at bigger and HUGE odds and take
> my chances.  the horse has plenty of room for
> improvement.. i believe only 2-3 points overall
> improvement.
>
> as far as tomcito he has won those big races in
> another country yes i agree.  i would think a
> horse like that could naturaly improve off those 2
> yo top numbers as they should so maybe he needed
> one out before firing a nice race?!  i dunno but
> compared to the field i think he has a much better
> shot to do so then many of the ones in here bc
> they were faster figures...wp has off efforts that
> beat most in this field and im not trying to say
> that this negative 3 is god, but its a number he
> has a possibility of running too (at great odds
> probably about 7 to 1 or so or higher that day)
> and if not that wouldnt u think a \"0 to a neg 2\"
> would be good here?
>
> i cant see comparing the patriots to this
> situation?!  every year in football is different
> just as every race presents a new situation. the
> edge to me in this years race is that many horses
> plain out suck and would need huge improvements to
> win.  its a longshot...tooo long.  il take a shot
> with the proven horse!  everyone keeps talking
> about the wood but what no one says is that he can
> actually IMPROVE off that effort.  u PROBABLY and
> MOST likely cant say that about Tale of Ekati! it
> took the poor horse 5 or so efforts to go forward
> and now with 4 weeks off comes off a race its
> never done before.  il confidently say thatll be a
> bounce imo.
>
> i will agree with you that i shouldnt compare wp
> to ghostzapper, midnight lute or saint liam but im
> just trying to point out that although a horse
> like Commendable beat saint liam in stakes races
> or a horse like brother derek beat midnight lute
> (as an example) or a dominican horse beat street
> sense, when it came down to it, many have run
> championship effforts in championship races and
> stepped up like they proved previously.  and by
> previously i mean an effort that was run that the
> horse could (with plenty of evidence and factors
> such as rest, condition and all) run back to and
> destroy the field or it be the best number in that
> particular race and be the best bet.
>
> the tampa bay race was a complete toss out race
> imo and just take a pen and scribble the number!
>
> it amazes me that you buy this product and dont
> take the numbers for what they are.. ive noticed
> many people in this forum say.. well a horse ran a
> \"6\" (as an example going 6f and an \"8\" going a
> mile and a 1/16 so the horse is \"better\" going
> shorter.  How can that be true?!  the horse
> couldve ran an 8 cause it reacted slightly to the
> 6 or it couldve went forward off of a \"9\" off
> effort.  i hear people saying the same thing about
> slop efforts.. it makes me sick.  You all pay for
> this accurate information.. u see a negative 3 for
> wp and then u make EXCUSES for discounting the
> information.  my advice is that you take the
> number for what it is and stop discounting efforts
> (unless there is a true and valid reason to
> discount an effort),,, a sloppy track to me does
> not qualify for a discounted effort imo unless a
> horse specifically shows that he hates the slop
> and runs bad every time.  a PRIME example of what
> im talking about is that race of the week!  look
> at the numbers.. the pick of the week is a horse
> that bounced last time out 5 points! in this case,
> i dont care if its 190 days ago or 32 days ago or
> 3 days ago!  and i dont care of the fact that it
> bounced going on a soft turf route! it bounce is a
> bounce! rebellion has run on the turf before and
> has done better....how do u play a horse TO WIN or
> make him a key, that has NO INDICATION at all to
> run a top effort or ANY decent effort for that
> matter at 6 to 1 odds!? cause of a trainer?! or
> rest?!  u have to be joking me..yea il take a shot
> with rebellion being 25 to 1 lightly.. other than
> that i just dont see it.  the horses in the race
> would have to be pretty bad for me to think he
> would run a winning effort.
>
> anyways, this is pretty fun going back and forth
> with our opinions..  i have no axes here either p
> dub and i do agree that my thoughts are scattered
> at times and i try to put light to what i say. i
> cant make promises with the drinkin.. i sure do
> heart premium voooodka!   =D

[miff]

\"Can you imagine what this board will look like if
 War Pass somehow manages to win?? ( As unlikely as it is)\"



Paul,

Anyone can win,a lesson in that regard was learned when a west coast slow rat Giacomo, ugh, won the derby. WP is at least fast, just distance challanged imo.

Would have been interesting if TG had \"late\" figs in their new race shape. Since they do not, I will tell you that people who make such figs have WP as an A-minus decelerator, meaning he slows the last 1/8 at an abnormal rate(except his 1st out this year) relative to his overall performance.Many horses with his free running early gas style show that, but his is extreme according to the guys who make and study the stuff.



Mike

[fkach]

War Pass has a pedigree that looks especially good for slop.

I\'m not sure if it\'s a shoe thing, his training method or whatever. But over the years I\'ve seen a real lot of horses move up a lot in slop for Nick Zito.

War Pass is a loose lead type. I believe a fairly high percentage of those really big slop efforts that don\'t get duplicated come from horses that earned them with loose leads.
 
So whatever the probability is that a random big figure on slop happens to be related to slop, IMO it\'s higher for War Pass. Of course it\'s not certain, but IMO it\'s a bigger risk to take his fast figure at face value than for some other horses.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Excellent points therein.

No doubt about viewing the Monmouth race with a healthy degree of skepticism.

But the intriguing scenario is what if Churchill comes up sloppy? Does everything change in that event?

Churchill is due south of me. Its wet and rainy this morning. It was wet and rainy yesterday and the day before as well.

Oh!..theres a boomer!

 fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> War Pass has a pedigree that looks especially good
> for slop.
>
> I\'m not sure if it\'s a shoe thing, his training
> method or whatever. But over the years I\'ve seen a
> real lot of horses move up a lot in slop for Nick
> Zito.
>
> War Pass is a loose lead type. I believe a fairly
> high percentage of those really big slop efforts
> that don\'t get duplicated come from horses that
> earned them with loose leads.
>  
> So whatever the probability is that a random big
> figure on slop happens to be related to slop, IMO
> it\'s higher for War Pass. Of course it\'s not
> certain, but IMO it\'s a bigger risk to take his
> fast figure at face value than for some other
> horses.

[belveondarockz]

no offense taken at all p dub.. i sure do love the horses and of the many things i have learned is that there is no true right or wrong way to look at the sheets.  being that every race is different i look at the competition that day and sort of narrow down looking for value and if none is there perhaps look at the next race or two for leverage with my short odds pick with the doubles pick 3s or 4\'s.  Ive always said Half the battle is the handicapping...the other half which people do not realize is the betting! u can have a winning horse or a winning key and if u wager wrong what does it mean?!  nada!

anyways good luck to u and everyone today... looks like a pretty nice card all around!