Carter handicap: Stones bustin or getting busted?

[Flighted Iron]

Quite curious if Zito plans to run Commentator how Stones responds to a whole new
type of front end pressure? Responding to quite possibly not having the lead? Either way the entire field has received a gift with most notables( Midnight lute,
Benny the Bull and the shelved one)not present.


Pinched Perfect

[BitPlayer]

Here\'s a blurb about the Carter from the DRF last week:

\"Sir Greeley\'s defection is another blow to what was once looking like a stellar renewal of the Carter, a seven-furlong race. Last year\'s Cigar Mile winner, Daaher, was pointing for this race but has been retired. Midnight Lute, last year\'s Breeders\' Cup Sprint winner, was also eyeing the Carter, but is now being shelved until the summer.

The Carter will feature undefeated New York-bred Bustin Stones and Southern California-based Spring at Last, as well as King of the Roxy, Lord Snowdon, and Premium Wine.\"

http://www.drf.com/news/article/93267.html

[Flighted Iron]

I happened to read that. BTW,what\'s your blurb?

[BitPlayer]

I thought you might have, but it was a bit buried in Grening\'s piece, so I thought I\'d post it in case you\'d missed it.

I don\'t understand your question.

[Bustin Stones]

IMO don\'t see much in the nominations that can run with the Stones on the front end. Snowdon,Wine,Sir Greeley, and King of the Roxy cant handle his front running ability. If the Stones runs the way he always has and fires out of the gate and makes the lead, it should be him and Commentator to the wire. Just praying to the racing gods and hoping for a fast track that day.

P.S. Note the addition of Lasix, bullet work two back and gets five pounds. He was ready to run 2 weeks ago:)

[jimbo66]

If commentator does get entered, Bustin Stones will not win and I would bet him out of the money.  Bustin Stones has not faced real front end speed in his previous races.

Commentator rates as the \"biggest bully\" horse of the last 20 years IMO.  When he gets inferior competition, he is an incredibly fast horses with something like 4 or 5 negative 5 figures.   Commentator probably has 5 of the fastest 15 figures ever given out by Thorograph.  However, when he faces true Grade 1 quality foes, he has come up short every time, except the Whitney where he beat Saint Liam.  

The projected field for the carter is not of grade 1 quality, so if Commentator shows up, expect the \"bully treatment\".

[Bustin Stones]

Commentator out of Carter.

[fkach]

>However, when he faces true Grade 1 quality foes, he has come up short every time, except the Whitney where he beat Saint Liam. <

And that day he got loose on a speed favoring track. ;-)

[Flighted Iron]

Bit,

 Re:subject title

 Whats your take?

[Flighted Iron]

Concerned slightly with the lack of Dominguez?

[Bustin Stones*]

Prado is riding. Love Ramon, IMO Edgar rode the Stones to a masterful ride at Belmont!!

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- the bad races in GIs might have something to do with the fact that they only run in those when he is coming off a big effort (\"prep\"). They got away with it once earlier in the horse\'s career, when he was sounder. Now he only runs well fresh (like many unsound horses). If they train him up to the BC (or even the Met), I\'ll bet him.

[fkach]

IMO.....

When he was fresh he was also typically spotted against statebreds or weak allowance types that couldn\'t put him under any pressure early. That allowed him to set a comfortable pace. That kind of easy trip in turn allowed him to run his maximum possible figure.

When he won the Grade 1 Whitney, he was loose on the lead on a day that I (and many others) made one of the most biased days of that Saratoga meet.  

No doubt he has turned in a number of poor performances because of his soundness issues, but his race in the Tom Fool last year wasn\'t bad (2nd off a layoff). He dueled on a hot pace while wide before weakening, in an effort that was better than it looks given the much tougher trip.

He went into the BC last year off a layoff yet didn\'t do much against the fastest horses (granted the track could also be an excuse).

I think he\'s one of those speed types that does his best running when he\'s able to control the pace or going easy. That kind of trip simply doesn\'t happen too often in Grade 1 races.

Personally, I thought his last race was pretty good. I didn\'t see a figure for the race, but he didn\'t make a very easy lead and still finished well. It was against seconds stringers, but he showed some grit in that race and the horses weren\'t statebreds. LOL

I think it\'s a form of denial to not acknowledge that some of the fluctuations in his figures are related to getting very easy trips against very weak horses and getting tougher trips against other quality speeds. IMO, he\'s not as good as his best figures, but he\'s better than some of his bad performances that were impacted by soundness issues.

[TGJB]

fkach--

1-- by an amzing coincidence, after he\'s run those bad races that were due to the pace, he\'s consistently had to be laid off.

2-- the fractions in the Whitney were blazing fast for 2 turns at Saratoga. He had an easy lead like Spend A Buck did in the Derby.

3-- You will like our new pace product. You might even be willing to pay for it. Those of us that used it knew that post 12 in the Florida Derby was a total non-issue for BB.

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo-- the bad races in GIs might have something
> to do with the fact that they only run in those
> when he is coming off a big effort (\"prep\"). They
> got away with it once earlier in the horse\'s
> career, when he was sounder. Now he only runs well
> fresh (like many unsound horses). If they train
> him up to the BC (or even the Met), I\'ll bet him.


you like Commentator in a 14 horse grade 1 cushion race?

the Met Mile maybe, where NYRA could very well come up with a 6 horse field with three plodders.