Any Tips to better undestand the BC Thorograph Sheets

[Point_Given_Gal]

I just downloaded and printed the prelimnary Breeders Cup Thorograph Sheets.  I am looking for some helpful hints on how best to interpret the figures.

Also I am  somewhat confused by the negative #s. What is the best way to interpret these?  For example one of my favorites for the Sprint has 3 negative races in a row.  How should I interpret this? Stupid question: but negatives are a good thing right?

Thank you in advance for your help.  I am so excited for the Breeders Cup I can not think about anything else right now.

Michelle

[Point_Given_Gal]

One last question.....I have a theory and Id like to know if you guys think it floats or not.  If you take the last 4 or 5 races of a horse (not using this for the juveniles)  and add up the number then average it out by the number of however many races you were looking at.   Like if Horse A has a (1) and a (1) and a (1) and a (1) in each of the last 4 races = 4 /4 = an average of 1.   Horse B has a (1) and a (1) amd a (1) and a (0)= 3 divided by 4 which comes to .75 there fore by looking at the averages Horse B is the one to bet.

Does this work and am I off base here.  I am here to learn.

Thank you.

[kev]

From what i\'ve heard too many negative numbers can be a bad thing for next out. Two in a row is bad and three in a row are very very bad for their next race. If they are spaced out a bit that might stop the bleeding for a bit. If a horse runs a
-2 -1 -2 and that last race was only on 3 to 5 weeks rest a bounce will come big time.

[TGAB]

PGG--Michelle--I believe you floated this theory before (archives 6/20/02). You should do whatever you\'re comfortable doing but my answer then still holds.

As far as negative numbers go, yeah they\'re good. They\'re indicative of huge talent and performance. Used to be that 2 negative figures augured a bounce, but quality horses these days are capable of running 3 to 4 of them in a row due to various reasons JB has elaborated on here before. Maintaining that precarious performance pinnacle is very difficult, especially for extended periods of time. At some point these top performers will react, bounce. But it\'s not as easy to predict the fall as it once was.

[derby1592]

Michelle,

I second what Alan says but I will have to offer some additional advice. Do NOT average the figures. The top and the range have some meaning but the average is pretty worthless.

The better the top, the faster the horse.

The tighter the range, the more consistent.

If you find a fast (relative to the field), consistent horse, you have found a contender. Unfortunately, you have probably also found one of the favorites (but not always).

Those are the basics. You can have some fun and cash some tickets using the sheets in that simple way.

If you want to show a long-term profit you have to dig deeper - condition, pace, trainers, trips, breeding, etc.

One simple way to find a decent bet with the sheets is to look for a fast, INconsistent horse. He is a probably a contender and he may have some long odds if his recent races have been poor. If you can find some reason to expect improvement (e.g., valid excuses for his poor races; a good pattern; or a change to a more favorable distance, surface, pace scenario, class, or trainer), he may be a good play. You are probably less likely to cash than if you play the fast, consistent horse but you are probably more likely to show a positive long-term return.

There is defitely more than one way to skin a cat and finding the approach that works best for you is half the fun.

Good luck on the BC and let us know who you like.

Chris

[Point_Given_Gal]

Alan, Chris, and Kevin, thank you so very much.  I truly appreciate your advice.  I just want to be sure that I understand all of the variables.

Alan, I apologize I guess that I already asked that question in a previous post.  I did not mean to repeat myself but I am glad that I can throw that hypothesis out the window once and for all.

Best of luck to you all and I look very forward to sharing my picks with you all and hearing your picks as well.

Those of you going to the BC I look forward to meeting you in person.

Thanks again.

Michelle

[TGAB]

Well put derby 1592.

No need to apologize PGG. I just wanted to remind you that the question came up before.