Friday Breeder's Cup Analysis

[Dana666]

Friday Breeder's Cup Analysis (Done before scratches and track condition)
Main: Sloppy? Or at best Good? Turf: Soft? Yielding?

RACE EIGHT
Filly & Mares Sprint
7-La Traviata: She might well be the best horse you'll see on either day – she's truly spectacular – let's hope the off going doesn't do her in because that would be a shame. I just don't see any of the others as even being in her league. I've never seen anything like her since the great Ruffian. Her last workout was truly awe inspiring!
6-Oprah Winney: I think this New York bred is going to like the off-track; she certainly hasn't beaten this kind of animal, but she does move well and tries hard.
3-Dream Rush: Will take some serious money and add extra points if the rail is good because she'll likely be on the rail – I just don't think she's in the same class as La Traviata, though it is hard to fault her recent races, so we'll find out who the Queen of the Sprint really is when they look each other in the eye down the backstretch!
8-Wild Gams: Finishes like an express train; again, she's stepping up in class like many others, but if all the speed falls apart she can run strong in the late stages.
1-Miss Macy Sue: Loves to win races, but this is a big step up for her, and I thought she was a little stiff in the late stages of her last race; she may be over the top as they say?
Both (5) Jazzy and (4) Maryfield finish well, with Maryfield able to stay a bit closer early, though I'd be really surprised if either were good enough to win this.

RACE NINE Juvenille Turf
I love that they added this race!
8-Achill Island: Nice looking Irish colt adds Lasix for Aidan O'Brien – I think he is awfully dangerous here – he has a nice turn of foot, can handle off-turf, and I think he's the best of the foreign contingent.
6-Gio Ponti: This guy is a real runner! It's scary to imagine him improving any further. He can likely handle the off going as well. Very live runner in my opinion!
7-Nownownow: Sheet players will be all over this guy as opposed to Gio Pointi because Nownownow was wide at Keenland and lost ground, and Ponti saved all the ground; he was running very fast late and did well to run second considering the slow pace early – despite the speed figure, he didn't impress me as much as Gio Ponti.
9-Prussian: To beat Mott this summer and fall has almost been an impossible task, so how can I not like this guy? He didn't beat much in his last, but he does move beautifully. He will have to handle off going and probably taking back a bit further off what should be a fast pace,he's used to being close-up, so some things are new for him – we'll see – Mott has to lose one of these days.
12-Domestic Fund: A bit one-paced, so the blinkers make sense for this Irish colt; even with the blinks, I'm not sure he'll be close enough from his outside post, but he does handle off-going well. The horse who beat him in last was a maiden for what that's worth.
3-The Leopard: Absoluetly exploded in the last 1/8th of a mile in his turf debut; that said, he beat a weak field with rediculosuly slow fractions. He's a big, rangy Storm Cat colt with giant strides and a nice turf foot— yet I think he looks more like a Tripe Crown prospect than a grass horse, but winning this would be no surprise. His class is a little hard for me to gauge, so he could win this going away or be off the board; the jury is still out from my point of view.
4-Cherokee Triumph: The British bookmakers like him some, but I wonder how such a large colt will handle the off going? He seems to me like he really likes to hear his feet rattle, and they won't be rattling on Friday; there'll be more of a sucking, clip-clop sound!
5-Strike the Deal: Strong-looking British colt did well enough in sprints, but he's one who I believe they were hoping to get firm turf, which didn't happen; I can't completely toss him, but I like the Irish horses more.
2-Cannonball: Ran well just the other day at Belmont; I can't blame Ward for trying him here, though he'll have to prove it to me.

RACE TEN
Dirt Mile: This race appears too wide open; I have a hard time making any solid conclusions!

[elkurzhal]

Ladies Sprint
1 Miss Macy Sue / Eusebio Razo Jr. / Kelly Von Hemel / Roll Reroll Stables LLC, William Gessmann, and Dennis Acbaugh / 6-1
Top = -.75, Last -.75 (pair up).  Pretty fast, solid pattern, and good post.  Would need a top to win and I don't see any more development coming.   Still should save ground and run her race which is probably good enough to hit the board. Playable in exotics

2 Miraculous Miss / Jeremy Rose Steve Klesaris / Puglisi Stables, Steve B. Klesaris / 15-1
Top = 1, Last 1 (pair up). Pattern is good and she could run a new top, but she will be losing ground coming from far back.  Pass

3 Dream Rush / Eibar Coa Richard Violette Jr. / West Point Thoroughbreds /  2-1
Top = 0, Last 3. For a 2-1 shot there a lot of horse with better figs.  I think she wilts under the pace pressure here and doesn't get close to running back to her top. Pass

4 Maryfield / Elvis Trujillo Doug F. O\'Neill / Mark Gorman, Nick Mestrandrea, Jim Perry / 15-1
Top = 0, Last 0 (pair up). A little slow, but constant.  If she doesn't get stuck behind any speed horses putting it in reverse she should get a good trip.  Don't see a 6 yo Elusive Quality mare make a forward move, but a pair with a good tip might get a piece at a price. Playable in exotics

5 Jazzy (ARG) (*15) / David Flores / Mark A. Hennig / Team Valor International, Des Scott, Robert Muir / 20-1
Top = 2.5 on turf, Last 3.  The last wasn't didn't get a big number, and wasn't super impressive, but for her first time on dirt it was solid.  The 2.5 on turf before that is a pretty serious fig for a turf sprint.  In South America she was always well bet, and ran on soft turf in all her starts.  I think there is good possibility that she could be a lot better on dirt. Team Valor must think the same or I don't think they would be here.  Contender
 
6 Oprah Winney / Garrett Gomez / Richard E. Dutrow Jr. / Sanford Goldfarb, Michael Dubb, Bunch of Characters Stable / 6-1
Top = -2, Last 1 (off).   In the sprint fast horses, that ran a few points off have run back to the top or better at a very good rate.  She the fastest horse in the race (-2 Tgraph 2 back), Dutrow is very good with sprinters, and very very good an Mth.  She won her last easy and probably could have run back to the -2 if asked at the way to the wire.  I see no reason to think she won\'t run back to the -2 or better here.  That should be good enough to win barring a really bad trip. Solid Contender

7 La Traviata / Julien Leparoux / Francois Parisel / Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith / 5-2
Top = -1.75, Last -1.75 (pair).  3 yo's BC sprinters coming off -1 or better preps are 0 – 7 in running that top or better in the BC.  Add to that that she is a filly making her 4 th start and I'd say a bounce is very very likely.  She does get 3lbs, should save ground, and is quite a bit faster than most of there, so I'm inclined to keep her on top as more of a saver, because of the value tossing Dream Rush creates. Saver

8 Wild Gams / Ramon Dominguez / Benjamin W. Perkins Jr. / New Farm  / 10-1
Top = -0.5, Last 1.5 (off).  Ran a couple big ones last year (-0.5), and wasn't right this spring, but has looked like her old self in the fall.  I think she moves back into the negative fig returning to dirt and if she can get a good trip could get a minor award. Playable in exotics

9 Shaggy Mane / Cornelio Velasquez / Don Chatlos Jr. / IEAH Stables, Andrew Cohen, Gary Tolchin, Jim Kwong, and Steve Cohen / 12-1
Top = -1.5, Last 15.75 (way off). Wow was that last one bad.  Her top is fast enough to be a factor, it's very unusual for a horse to run that bad and come back to her best.  Pass  

10 Baroness Thatcher/  Kent Desormeaux / Francois Parisel / Zayat Stables LLC / 12-1
Top = 1, Last 4.  Probably going to get hung wide chasing the pace.  I could see her getting back the 1, but she isn't likely to run the new top she would need to get a piece. Pass

Summary
Win Contenders: Oprah Winney, Jazzy
Win saver La Traviata  
Playable in exotics: Maryfield, Miss Macy Sue, Wild Gams



Juvy Turf
1 Your Round / Eddie Castro / Mark Hubley / Katie Rich Stables / 30-1
Top = 10.75, just started running in August and has some potential, but is in over his head here. Pass

2 Cannonball / Elvis Trujillo / Wesley Ward / Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey / 50-1
Top = 9.25, Coming back on 5 days is pretty confident, but these aren't NY breds. Pass

3 The Leopard / John Velazquez / Todd A. Pletcher/  Derrick Smith, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor / 8-1
Top 4.5 (dirt), 12 (turf) Ran a big fig at the spa breaking his mdn, and bounced a little next time at Belmont.  His last wasn't a good fig, but he did it very easy.  Should go out front and to the rail, saving ground and probably getting a soft to moderate pace.  Anything close to his dirt top gets his picture taken. Contender

4 Cherokee Triangle / Robby Albarado / Michael J. Maker / Skychai Racing Stable, Sand Dollar Stable LLC / 10-1
Top 5,  Has the fastest turf top in the race, and had a 7 on turf in his first start so it's not likely he'll bounce off it. Got a good post and should get a trip.  Solid Contender

5 Strike the Deal / Frankie Dettori / Jeremy Noseda / The Searchers / 9-2
Top 7.25 (euro)  Is the fastest of the euro's coming in and has good tactical speed.  Proven on soft turf.  Contender

6 Gio Ponti / Ramon Dominguez / /Christophe Clement / Castleton Lyons, Inc. / 8-1
Top 12.  Would need a big top here to get a piece.  Not impossible, but at the price I'll Pass.

7 Nownownow / Julien Leparoux / Francois Parisel / Fab Oak Stable / 10-1
Top 9.75. Slowslowslow... Pass

8 Achill Island (IRE) / Johnny Murtagh / Aidan P. O\'Brien / Mrs. John Magnier / 7-2
Top 9.75.  Don't like that he didn't finish off the last race.  He's developed a lot to get to that 9.75 last out, can't see a big move forward. Pass

9 Prussian / Kent Desormeaux / William I. Mott / Monticule LLC / 3-1
Top 8.75.  comes in off a big top, but won his 1st so easy, the 8.75 is probably not a big knock out effort for him.  Not crazy about the price, but he'll save ground, and is obviously pretty talented. Playable in exotics

10 Preachin Man / Cornelio Velasquez / Ronny Werner / McKathan Brothers and Fred Hertrich / 50-1
Top 4.25 (dirt).  Strange place to make your 1st turf start.  I wouldn't say he is bred to move up on turf, but Werner is 28% first time turf, so he obviously knows what he's doing.  Cornelio has been known to boot home a bomb or two on the grass too.  Playable in exotics

11 Texas Fever / Garrett Gomez / Michael Stidham / Stonerside Stable LLC  /30-1
Top 6 (poly)  another making his turf debut.  Last was a 5 pt top to the 6, which would contend here if he can translate that form to turf.  I'm luckwarm about his chances, but Gomez, Stidham, and the female family that produced FuPeg, and Pine Bluff along with the price have swayed me to keeping him on the tickets. Playable in exotics

12 Domestic Fund (IRE) / Patrick Smullen / Dermot K. Weld / Moyglare Stud Farm Ltd. / 5-1
Top 10.5. Probably a step to slow to have a real shot.  Will take money because he's a euro, but I'm not all that impressed with what he's done over there.  Pass

Summary
Win Contenders: The Leopard, Cherokee Triangle, Strike the Deal
Playable in exotics Prussian, Preachin Man, Texas Fever




Dirt Mile
1 Discreet Cat / Garrett Gomez / Saeed bin Suroor / Godolphin Racing LLC / 2-1
Probably wins for fun, or falls apart and runs up the track.  At the price I'll take my chances with the latter. (except in the p3, where I'll play a 6/4/1 cold just in case) Pass

2 Lewis Michael / Joe Talamo / Wayne M. Catalano / Frank Carl Calabrese Stable / 6-1
Was very good on dirt last year as a 3 yo, and has done even better on poly this year.  Could have some development left being a 4 yo by Rahy and will get a good ground saving trip from the 2 hole.  Contender

3 Wanderin Boy / Javier Castellano / Nicholas P. Zito / Arthur B. Hancock III / 8-1
Was very consistent and fast last year and has kind of fallen apart his year.  He comes in fresh but off a real sub par performance. It's not at his best distance. Pass

4 Forefathers / Channing Hill / William I. Mott / Zayat Stables LLC / 20-1
Going in the sprint If they change there minds he's a pass as a 3 yo off a big 3.5 pt top who would need another to get a piece.

5 High Finance / John Velazquez / Richard Violette Jr. / West Point Thoroughbreds, Inc. / 5-1
Ran a big -3.5, 3 races back and hit the skids for a while.  It's been 5 months since the big one, and he should be coming back into his own.  I could see him getting back into the negative territory here, and running a huge one next time out.  Playable in exotics

6 Gottcha Gold / C. C. Lopez / Edward Plesa Jr. / Centaur Farms, Inc./  8-1
Top is only a 0, but her has done it 3 times all at this track from 8-9 furlongs. Both sides of his pedigree point to a little late development, so it wouldn't be a shock for him to run a new top off the pair of 0's.  Playable in exotics

7 Park Avenue Ball / Joe Bravo / James T. Ryerson / Char-Mari Stable / 15-1
Ran a -2.5 at the track last year.  Has been running respectable numbers while sprinting this year and looks ready to bust out on the switch back to a mile on dirt. Contender

8 Corinthian / Kent Desorme
aux / James A. Jerkens / Centennial Farms / 7-2
Hasn't really done much fig wise to warrant 7-2.  Will likely lose a lot of ground chasing outside, and I don't see much potential for further development. Pass

9 Xchanger / Ramon Dominguez / Mark Shuman / Circle Z Stable, Joseph Masone, Mark Shuman / 6-1
Probably the lone 3 yo in the race, has really come into his own since the Preakness.  Not sure he has another forward move in him, but Dominguez is a good ground saver.  Even a pair with a trip and the 4lb allowance could earn a check.

Summary
Win Contenders: Park Avenue , Lewis Michael
P3 saver: Discreet Cat
Playable in exotics High Finance, Xchanger, Gottcha Gold

If I haven't embarrassed myself enough, I'll be back with more tomorrow night.

[Dana666]

Excellent Work! I really like what you\'ve done!

My only comments - I\'m not worried about La Traviata bouncing from a numbers perspective or being lightly raced, I have more worries about an off-track and the whole snake venom/trainer change thing. If you saw her workout available on the breeders cup website, not only would I not think she\'ll bounce, but I think she\'ll run a new top, which would have made her a legit BC Sprint contender, though I think they did the right thing by staying here instead of throwing her to the wolves -- they\'ll be time to take on the males down the road if she remains this good.
 
I also like Oprah Winny a little as well -- she\'s a live runner.

Regarding the grass race -- I believe we must factor in the off-going, which is hard to do. I also believe the T-G and RAG numbers are a bit off on the Euro\'s. Achill Island is the best by far of the three -- he\'s downright scary with the addition of Lasix -- that may be why he didn\'t finish off his late charge in his last race. He has a tremendous pedigree. I think Strike the Deal was hoping for firm turf. Domestic Fund is a bit too one-paced for my taste.

As far as the Americans (all this is conjecture) I don\'t think Cherokee Triangle will like soft turf. I too believe The Leopard may be a contender w/his price that helps you like him more. I like Gio Ponti\'s race quite a lot; though it may have been a weak field, he looked very professional. I\'m not sold on Prussian though Mott has been and continues to be on a roll -- Prussian will have to rate today and has the possibility of a wide trip; plus he seemed to goof off a bit in the stretch off his last race -- if he does that today, he will not hold off Achill Island\'s late charge.

Thanks for the analysis, esp. on the mile race, in which I have no clue, now I can play some pick three\'s!

[elkurzhal]

Dana666 Wrote:

> My only comments - I\'m not worried about La
> Traviata bouncing from a numbers perspective or
> being lightly raced.

here is the list of the prior 3 yo sprinters that ran -1 or better in their prep, and some additional info

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

year-name-odds-prior 2 figs (date) / BC fig (date), notes

1999 - none
 
2000 Caller One, -1.75 (7/15) / -1.75 (9/8) / 3 (11/4), 4th @ 4-1
 
2001 Squirtle Squirt, 1 (8/25) / -1 (9/22) / 0.5 (10/27), 1st @ 9.6-1
2001 Xtra Heat, 0 (9/8) / -1.5 (9/29) / 2.5 (10/27), 2nd @ 17.5-1
 
2002 - none
 
**** in 2003 3yo Cajun Beat won after -.75, in this prep.  It was a 1/4 pt top and he did run another top of -2.5 in the sprint to win at 22-1.
 
 2004 Abbondanza, 2.75 (8/14) / -2.75 (10/2) / 4.5 (10/30), 11th @ 26-1
 
**** in 2005 3yo Silver Train won, running a -2.  prior race was a pair of his previous top of 0.5
2005 Attila\'s Storm, 4.25 (5/21) / -1.5 (9/8) / 1.25 (10/30), 4th @ 45.5-1
2005 Lost in the Fog, -2.5 (8/27) / -2.5 (10/1) / 1.25 (10/30), 7th @ 0.7-1
 
2006 To Much Bling, -3 (4/8) / 0.5 (6/10) / -3 (7/15) / 1 (11/4), 6th @ 7.4-1
2006 Henny Hughes, -3.5 (7/1) / -3.5 (8/28) / -3.5 (10/7) / 9.25 (11/4), 14th @ 1.6-1

2007 La Traviata

[Dana666]

Someone did his homework!

You should work for TVG!

Look, you couldn\'t get me to jump off La Traviata no matter what, I meant it when I said she\'s the best filly since Ruffian; however, your stats are based on the Breeder\'s Cup Sprint, not the newly created filly and mare sprint -- I would tend to think it is much tougher to compete in the Sprint than this race. I will stand by my assertion that only the conditions might get her beat -- I just don\'t see any of her foes as breathing the same air she does!

I can\'t wait for your analysis tomorrrow -- whatever happens you\'re damn good!

[Michael D.]

excellent analysis. I\'m with you on OW in the sprint, and Cherokee Tri in the turf (though the Euros now figure more with the heavy turf). have to see how the track is playing before committing to the mile. in the next analysis, keep a bit more of the actual figs concealed. don\'t want to dilute the info.

good luck, and keep it coming.

[Silver Charm]

The Track today will resemble a bath tub after Junior spent the summer day outside playing.

Poured rain in So. Fla all night and this is just a conveyor belt right now up the east coast.

Too bad for Monmouth, NJ, BC, ESPN and TVG and all the other people who have worked so hard.

They and the Sport deserve better................

[elkurzhal]

Well thanks Dana & Mike, gave me a little smile after a long night of handicapping.  Hopefully were all smiling Saturday night!

In regard to concealing the figs I would have to think anyone betting enough money to make a difference on BC day either has them, or won\'t be betting any different based on knowing a horses top/last fig.  On a Thursday afternoon at Aqueduct, that\'s a different story.  If TG thinks different that\'s OK by me.

[Uncle Buck]

The only play I\'m making today is a $200 win parlay. Oprah Winny to Discreet Cat. How does Discreet Cat lose the BC Dirt Mile? He\'s fastest and he has the rail. He also has GKG. I hear Miss Winfrey herself will be on track to kiss the winner\'s nose in the F & M Sprint

[P-Dub]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Track today will resemble a bath tub after
> Junior spent the summer day outside playing.
>
> Poured rain in So. Fla all night and this is just
> a conveyor belt right now up the east coast.
>
> Too bad for Monmouth, NJ, BC, ESPN and TVG and all
> the other people who have worked so hard.
>
> They and the Sport deserve better................


You couldn\'t be more right.

I\'m here with a couple friends, one is a horse owner (owns a small piece of Dream Rush and Lear\'s Princess). We bought tickets on the 4th level, covered seating for 50 bucks each from a couple guys out front. It was cold, wet, dreary, a pretty miserable day all around.......with half the number of people than what will be there Saturday. We\'re getting there early.

Didn\'t hit much, struggled with the track conditions.  Congrats to those that posted winners.  Some nice scores by some of you today.

Disappointed with the F/M Sprint result, but it was fun watching. (Disappointed with Atlantic City too. Gimme Las Vegas anytime. Took a cab from the Hilton to the Borgata. Cabbie went thru the hood. Not a very comfortable ride. These crappy neighborhoods are nowhere near the LV strip/downtown. Don\'t have time to explain everything, but this No Cal guy never did get with the vibe of this city. JMHO.)

Bought a couple overpriced pieces of mdse, but they look nice.  Gotta buy something.

Had an $8 Italian sausage w/peppers/ onions. Tasty. Knocked back around 4 cold beers in a green bottle. Can\'t remember the name.Tasted better than crappy Bud.

Took 3o minutes to get out of the parking lot. Got a little \"turned around\" on the way out.  We stopped at a restaurant, had mediocre food, found the expressway, stopped at Macy\'s to buy rain jackets.  Nice sale: 40% off, plus another 25% at register.  $350 coat cost around $150. Bought more than just hay and oats today.

A crummy, cold day at the track is better than doing most other things. Despite all that, I loved being there and watching live racing. Looking forward to tomorrow:

For Saturday:
4th JUV Fillies
14 A to the Croft
12 Grace Anatomy
8 Izarra
9 Smarty Deb

The outside is obviously a disadvantage. But I\'m counting on Kent to show why he is one of the top riders in the world.

5th Juveniles
1-Z Humor
3-Kodiak Kowboy
2-War Pass

Bred for off, good pattern, blinkers, Kent.
6th F/M Turf
7-Argentina
9-Danzon
12-Precious Kitten

I think Argentina handles the surface, and kent continues to have a good day. Will be there at the finish.

7th Sprint
Throw out Midnight Lute.

6-Commentator
4-Talent Search
1-Smokey Stover
Commentator loves the off, has some very big numbers to run back to. 12/1ML.

8th Turf Mile
8-Kip Deville
14-Remarkable News (Terrible post, but hoping Dominguez works out a trip).
5-Jeremy

Like the pattern, very good strength.

9th Distaff
7-Lear\'s Princess
5-Lady Joanne
11-Unbridled Belle
Who else??  Nice pattern for LJ. UB strong.

10th Turf
Toss Dylan Thomas, who handles the turf??
6- English Channel
1-Fri Guy
2-Red Rocks
Best US horse.

11th Classic
3-Any Given Saturday
2-Street Sense
1-Lawyer Ron

GoGo takes the Classic, the top American jockey takes the biggest American race. Pletcher silences some critics for a minute.

Good luck and enjoy yourselves.

[rando]

PDub  Do you need tickets . I have 4 in the 34rd floor undercover 7 rows up inside the 16th pole.Will be at trck at 8:30 a.m. or call 314 6295188. Up another 1hr.  Randy

[P-Dub]

Thanks Randy, but I think we already have hook-up for Saturday. Appreciate the offer though.

[elkurzhal]

2007 La Traviata -1.5 (7/22), -1.5 (8/25), 7 (10/26) 6th @ 2.1-1