The Biggest Bet Against

[spa]

Lute had two operations. I\'ve followed him since he was a baby. Watch out...

[Bally Ache]

Anyone planning on tossing Discreet Cat had better take a good look at his last two workouts.  Those works are telling you he\'s not the same horse he was on Sept.30.

If you want a horse to toss in that race, I\'d suggest Lewis Michael.  He likes to run on turf, he likes to run on oatmeal.  His record on dirt is not as good.

[elkurzhal]

Spa,  those operations prior to or since his last?

[richiebee]

Tony:

A lot of truth in what you say, but since all of my wagers Friday/ Saturday
will be win, DD, P3, P4, there really is no underneath for me.

If you like MidLute, the way you have to look at it is that he will be coming
into the race with one of the fastest TG\'s ever recorded (fastest?)and will
still probably be 5/2 or 3/1 at post time.

Gotta go study some more. See ya Friday.

[jimbo66]

I think Midnight Lute is the biggest bet against, for several reasons.  One \"figure\" reason and one \"intangible\".

He is coming off a negative 7 race.  I believe that is the fastest figure ever recorded.  It is a 5 point new top (or more).  If that isn\'t a reason to expect a bounce, I am not sure what is.  

As for the intangible.  Midnight Lute is the kind of horse that will not run well at Monmouth (see Curlin).  He is a huge horse, who runs well when outside, not inside.  He will not do well on the turns at Monmouth.  His best shot to hit the board would have been to draw way outside and stalk the lead, while losing ground, but not be as impacted on the turn.  Instead, he drew down inside, with speed all around him.  It would also seem the horse is better at 7 panels, than six.  

He won\'t like the tight turns, should bounce, and will be jammed down inside, where he doesn\'t want to be.  THis horse is off the board.

[richiebee]

Welcome Back.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

I can see and respect your point of view. However, I think the inside draw actually plays well for him with all the other speed around him. Many of Lutes races were beyond 7F. All of his troubled starts before his epiglottis operation were at distances beyond todays. I know everyone is looking for a horse to beat, by I am of the opinion this one is a single in multi race wagers. The other horse to watch is Gold horse. He was coming strong in that wickedly fast (although slow TG fig) for Idiot Proof. I just hope I\'m idiot proof with this decision.

NC Tony

[spa]

Lute\'s throat work was months ago..........

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Midnight Lute is the biggest bet against,
> for several reasons.  One \"figure\" reason and one
> \"intangible\".
>
> He is coming off a negative 7 race.  I believe
> that is the fastest figure ever recorded.  It is a
> 5 point new top (or more).  If that isn\'t a reason
> to expect a bounce, I am not sure what is.  
>
> As for the intangible.  Midnight Lute is the kind
> of horse that will not run well at Monmouth (see
> Curlin).  He is a huge horse, who runs well when
> outside, not inside.  He will not do well on the
> turns at Monmouth.  His best shot to hit the board
> would have been to draw way outside and stalk the
> lead, while losing ground, but not be as impacted
> on the turn.  Instead, he drew down inside, with
> speed all around him.  It would also seem the
> horse is better at 7 panels, than six.  
>
> He won\'t like the tight turns, should bounce, and
> will be jammed down inside, where he doesn\'t want
> to be.  THis horse is off the board.


Hi Jim,

if ML breaks running, and gets the clean trip, I think he\'s 1 or 2. two pretty big ifs though (especially being a huge horse in a big field, as you say).

my pick here is Smokey Stover. Gryder has handled this guy very well, and he seems primed for a top effort. I see a ground saving negative \'4\'. not sure if I will save with ML or not.

Benny is the enigma here. the general pattern of pair, pair, top is good for these types, and it\'s Dutrow. Guidry, a great sprint jock, gets a clear view behind a brutal pace.

[RICH]

Benny has/had a shot, what about the sloppy track and coming from way behind, hardly seems ideal.

[jennatongtrento]

Big Bounce