The Forego H.

[kev]

This one looks like a great race. Even though S.Squirt looks like the winner, i don\'t care too much about Orientate at 8-5. I would play SS with Silky sweep,hook and ladder and Aldebaran.

Anybody else??

[kev]

Wow Orientate really showed me something today. I take it he\'ll be a fav. for the sprint now??

[Catalin]

I would imagine the Forego comes up another sub-zero for Orientate making it four in a row (OK so his race at CD was really a 1/4).  That makes four blistering efforts in 60 days at 3 different tracks.

I better starting taking money out of the ATM now.  At a $300 per day withdrawal limit I want to make sure I have enough to bet against him at ARL on BC day.

[cheapclaimer]

With Bailey staying on Orientate and forsaking Squirt, you had to believe Squirt wasn\'t ready. Oh well, he can\'t ride \'em all.

Thank gawd Prado stomped him into the ground for the jockey title.

[Mall]

Let\'s assume Wayne can\'t resist just one more race before the BC. Let\'s also assume that O wins again after, in a perfect world, a hard fought duel on the front end. Finally, let\'s assume that O is a solid fav in the BC.

The BC itself & a lot of the cyberbooks are touting the fact that there will be more head-to-head betting opportunities in this BC than ever before. Although the details aren\'t yet available, most of the bets seem to be of the Europe vs USA variety. However, there was a clever poster some time ago who, in a form of arbitrage involving two books, constructed a TC head-to-head play which resulted in a 5-1 bet against a horse which a lot of people thought would run up the track. Perhaps he could reveal himself & refresh our memories re the play, as I am as strongly against O in the BC as you appear to be.

[JimP]

What if Lukas trains him up to the BC? Would you still think he is a strong bet-against?

What if he runs him one more time and he Xs? Would he still be a strong bet-against?

[OPM]

If he runs one more time even if he X\'s, I will bet against him.  However, if he trains him up to the Sprint, then you have to use him.  However, if he trains up to the Sprint, his odds will be about 6/5 and not below even because some other horses will run real well(X-tra Heat) in the preps.

[Mall]

Valid questions, & all things which would need to be taken into account before making any final decision. At this pt all I\'m doing is raising a possibility which might make some sense depending on a lot of factors which are not known at this time. I do seem to recall someone from TG pointing out that no horse has run 5 consecutive neg nos since they starting keeping track, & I\'m inclined at this point to think that O is not the horse which will break the streak.

[TGJB]

Comments regarding limitations of ability were made prior to EPO and other \"advances\". All bets are off.
The good news is that the industry is finally starting to take this stuff seriously.
I really don\'t want to have to move my scale 3-4 points.

[JimP]

Orientate is clearly the best sprinter going right now for whatever reason. Will make the BC Sprint a very difficult race to play.

[Mall]

You may have seen the story about the Laurel trainer who became the 1st to be suspended for having empty EPO vials in the barn, or the story about the proposal in NY for \"between competition\" testing, or the ongoing stories about there being an EPO test in place before the BC which, quoting BH, will involve the \"most comprehensive and complete drug testing available.\"

I\'m sure you also recall me telling you that all of the vet\'s cars were searched before the start of the Sar meet, & that the search included opening & testing the liquid & substance in every container in the car & trunk. My thought at the time was to seriously downgrade the charges of all of the suspected \"juice\" trainers, & it certainly seemed that the nos of horses of some in that category didn\'t merely bounce, but seemed to literally fall off a cliff. One trainer in particular who has a very high winning percentage & who I was told by a reliable source was brought in for the \"dutch uncle\" treatment by NYRA officials, ended up with the dreaded duck. Others, as you pointed out, seemed to be winning at pretty close to normal percentages. Which raises the possibility at least that some suspected juice trainers may in fact be clean.

[cheapclaimer]

Kona Gold had a string of 6 negative numbers broken in the BC Sprint last year.

Macho Uno and Xtra Heat have four in a row at this time.

[Mall]

If I remember correctly, the statement was made about Albert The Great prior to his loss to Lido Palace in the Travers. Kona Gold, who is what, 7 or 8 yrs old, doesn\'t surprise me. KG\'s been lightly raced & expertly managed & is sort of a sprinting version of With Anticipation. Xtra Heat, the kind of horse I\'d be inclined to take in a head-to-head bet against O at the right price, doesn\'t surprise me either. Macho, on the other hand, is a shock. He must be earning his nos by going wide because he sure isn\'t earning them winning races.

[Catalin]

Mall:

You\'re absolutely right about the \"dutch uncle\" talk.  Heard the same story today from another reliable source.  The \"other\" trainer, an ex-jockey son of a retired trainer,  seems to have fallen off the face of the earth and has been shipping horses to DEL & PHA in an attempt to win a purse.  Hey, it still works for Lake who hasn\'t obtained persona non grata status in either of those venues yet.

As for some of the others, I think the difference is that the \"good juicers\" are using things like EPO (as opposed to run of the mill stimulants or pain killers), and they still don\'t test for that in NY.  I wonder what NYRA will do when they begin testing for it and learn that some of Saratoga\'s leading trainers use the stuff on virtually all their stock, sometimes with lethal results?

[rxp]

What does the phrase \"dreaded duck\" mean? Suspension? Would you identify who the trainer is?
Thanks
RXP