Barry?

[TGJB]

The first is the one I was referring to, but the second is pretty good too. Sometimes I almost sound like I know what I\'m doing.

Thanks for finding them. It would have taken me a week.

[fkach]

I understand your point about the race being only 8F, but he has won at that distance and been in solid contention by mid stretch in some of his other races at 8.5 and 9F.  Plus he got up last time at 8F in an absolutely paceless race.

If anything, he didn\'t look that great at 12F.

This horse will always have a question mark over him because of his soundness issues. But I\'ve thought (and I believe I expressed it here) that this horse looked like a freakish talent after his first race in 05. I am thrilled to see him back vindicating that view. The right price at Woodbine is debateable, but IMHO he was clearly the most likely winner. That\'s all the ROTW suggested about him too.

[stillinger]

That\'s all I am saying as well,
I just don\'t think it deserves Barry\'s jab.
fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I understand your point about the race being only
> 8F, but he has won at that distance and been in
> solid contention by mid stretch in some of his
> other races at 8.5 and 9F.  Plus he got up last
> time at 8F in an absolutely paceless race.
>
> If anything, he didn\'t look that great at 12F.
>
> This horse will always have a question mark over
> him because of his soundness issues. But I\'ve
> thought (and I believe I expressed it here) that
> this horse looked like a freakish talent after his
> first race in 05. I am thrilled to see him back
> vindicating that view. The right price at Woodbine
> is debateable, but IMHO he was clearly the most
> likely winner. That\'s all the ROTW suggested about
> him too.

[Barry Irwin]

I\'ve been sick at home with a cold this week and don\'t have my usual level of energy. I apologize for not being up to snuff. Every time I sneeze, I unleash the floodgates of bugs that tickle the hell out of my throat. Not in much of a mood for battle right now.

[TGJB]

No hurry.

[Barry Irwin]

Geez, I wasn\'t criticizing Jerry for the sake of God, his son Jesus H. Christ and their mutual associate the Holy Ghost.

I was just joking around for goodness sakes alive.

Judgment is a good thing, but it is quite subjective.

My point about grass numbers is that a) there are not enough races run at American tracks to make good ones, b) pace does not make the race as it does in dirt races, c) dirt races are able to be quantified, d) because there is not a lot to go on, many times in my experience (with Beyer and Ragzoin) the numbers are pulled out of thin air.

[stillinger]

I appreciate the input and admit to \"Contol Issues\" that have stuck me in the top slot forever, well as long as I can remember so that\'s a moving target. I have quoted the most important part of what you told me, which is the part most reponses when I question Gimmickery, leave out.
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TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Still-- first of all, if \"we\" have ruined win
> betting, it\'s because we\'re in the win pool, which
> answers your own question.

That\'s what drove me here. Surrender.

I got about 11-1 on
> my total play,

[stillinger]

I am sorry  you are ill.

And I appreciate your taking time, especially in mentioning my business partners, JHChrist and THSpirit. I pay for Jerry\'s stuff. Not a lot, but in cash, and he gets enough credit.

I already said I agree with your overall assessment of MT vs turf in terms of the former being more easily reducible to \"Figures\", and it is in my self interest that no one believes in these numbers so this is the last shilling I am doing for Mr Brown, but I appreciated your post on Dreaming of An(n?)a, and others, and something in me wanted to say publicly that subjective/judgemental is really more than OK, not dismissible because you can\'t PROVE it, right this minute in the lab. The record here speaks for itself, as does  yours, UNFORTUNATELY for me in the former case, as it really isn\'t my goal to evolve, winning being good enough for me. Be well, and thanks.
Loved the article from UK.
Barry Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Geez, I wasn\'t criticizing Jerry for the sake of
> God, his son Jesus H. Christ and their mutual
> associate the Holy Ghost.
>
> I was just joking around for goodness sakes
> alive.
>
> Judgment is a good thing, but it is quite
> subjective.
>
> My point about grass numbers is that a) there are
> not enough races run at American tracks to make
> good ones, b) pace does not make the race as it
> does in dirt races, c) dirt races are able to be
> quantified, d) because there is not a lot to go
> on, many times in my experience (with Beyer and
> Ragzoin) the numbers are pulled out of thin air.

[TGJB]

Barry-- hopefully you will hit the \"Grass Figures\" post below, which links to two posts where I dealt with those issues in some detail.

[Michael D.]

Barry Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'ve been sick at home with a cold this week and
> don\'t have my usual level of energy. I apologize
> for not being up to snuff. Every time I sneeze, I
> unleash the floodgates of bugs that tickle the
> hell out of my throat. Not in much of a mood for
> battle right now.


Ok, get well Barry.

Good luck with Fairbanks.

[analizethis]

Given all the comments on this thread regarding the WM and the winner, who has an opinion on Shakespeare\'s chances in the BC Mile (his target per KM)?

When Shakespeare ran in the BC turf at Belmont I had nice futures bet at Corel and he was beaten up pretty badly by the Euros (all Euro superfecta at Belmont) on yielding turf. Now the story is he was injured.

My view is that there is a good chance that he will be overbet given the chance of similar situations (strong Euro first time lasix mile specialist), softish turf and potenial traffic problems.

[Street Sense]

analizethis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Given all the comments on this thread regarding
> the WM and the winner, who has an opinion on
> Shakespeare\'s chances in the BC Mile (his target
> per KM)?
>
> When Shakespeare ran in the BC turf at Belmont I
> had nice futures bet at Corel and he was beaten up
> pretty badly by the Euros (all Euro superfecta at
> Belmont) on yielding turf. Now the story is he was
> injured.
>
> My view is that there is a good chance that he
> will be overbet given the chance of similar
> situations (strong Euro first time lasix mile
> specialist), softish turf and potenial traffic
> problems.


I think he could well be a superstar if that tendon holds up.  The Euros spank us so badly every year tho that my turf tickets always include even the worst of their lot and only the very best of ours.

[stillinger]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Still-- first of all, if \"we\" have ruined win
> betting, it\'s because we\'re in the win pool, which
> answers your own question.

Obviously you have driven the win pool for years in NY.

This is the first day I have purchased sheets for anything other than stakes,
and if your more casual followers are the reason Noonmark was 8/5, with an inside speed position on the Bel racetrack, given he has never run at the end since he broke his maiden, and now he has to run early, and that the two numbers that look good lately are against a horse that won getting lucky this past week, and another that runs big on wet tracks only, there is still slack in here. Not for public consultants who need to generate bombs for their clients, and I understand that, for us dinosaurs, you might be unintentionally helping.

This vs a stake look alike last winter, and I know you know that, that didn\'t have to hurry because he was outside this 1-0 that has NEVER run at the end, whether looking good doing that vs Sharp Humor or looking less than swell doing that against Abraaj on a dry track, or worse yet, against CIty Attraction, who was lucky to beat Grand Champion.

I love the board, and I love the product, and I do hope Mr. Irwin got over his cold, \'cause that\'s the kinda guy I am.
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