Kentucky Derby 2007--Final Figures

[jbelfior]

The horse (AGS) needs time between races. I think we may end up coming to the same conclusion about HARD SPUN, who will be terribly overbet in Pimlico. Wouldn\'t be shocked to see him a slight favorite.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Kasept]

RICH,

According to Bill Kaplan on our show yesterday, he will.. And Storm in May is looking at the Woody on the undercard or the mile lawn affair Sunday.. Drums of Thunder making the trip to Elmont for something as well! It\'s a \"Kaplanpalooza\'..

[basket777]

??

the numbers are the numbers   put a dress on stop whinning. if you don\'t like them dont use them in the next race any of the horses run. heaven knows there are more than one race every 2 weeks to bet. while you listen to cher cd\'s wondering if the numbers are right others will be having a blast having an edge .

skip to your lou

[TGJB]

CTC-- Right. And if you take a look at the 06 BC numbers, still posted on this site, you will see that despite having a bad day result wise, Pletcher\'s horses ran very well there too.

Which is not a comment on whether he is doing something. I don\'t want to sound like a broken record, but until they start publishing the CO2 results, we don\'t know nuthin\'. After that we can start looking.

[fkach]

>CTC-- Right. And if you take a look at the 06 BC numbers, still posted on this site, you will see that despite having a bad day result wise, Pletcher\'s horses ran very well there too. <

IMO, people tend to underrate the impact that two skills have on trainer win percentage.

1. Knowing their horse\'s ability and spotting them properly

2. Recognizing if a horse is doing very well and only running those that are. This leads to a higher percentange of the trainer\'s starters actually running their \"A\" race.  (of course many trainers don\'t have this luxury)

In the big races, skill #1 is virtually worthless and I suspect some trainers are more vulnerable to pressures for the big race - which reduces the value of #2.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >CTC-- Right. And if you take a look at the 06 BC
> numbers, still posted on this site, you will see
> that despite having a bad day result wise,
> Pletcher\'s horses ran very well there too. <
>
> IMO, people tend to underrate the impact that two
> skills have on trainer win percentage.
>
> 1. Knowing their horse\'s ability and spotting them
> properly

Agree that Pletcher moves his horses to Tracks where they have a chance. King of the Roxy for instance. \"He\" shipped that one to Santa Anita to try and take advantage of a weak field.

Additionally, its my opinion that Pletcher does not like to race Graded Poly. It brings the horses together and robs them of speed which is an embellished trait in the horses he trains.

I never said he was a complete moron, I said he cheats with drugs. Let me reiterate that...Pletcher Cheats with Drugs.

> 2. Recognizing if a horse is doing very well and
> only running those that are. This leads to a
> higher percentange of the trainer\'s starters
> actually running their \"A\" race.  (of course many
> trainers don\'t have this luxury)

Yes, Horses begin doing well when sufficiently oxygenized and ouch medicated. Its easier to get a horse ready to fire an improved effort with the aid of hypodermics. Let me repeat that, innoculations by Steve Allday do help Pletcher\'s horses feel better and thus allow Pletcher to place them in races where once feeling the medical science they are positioned to run their A race and even a race they can\'t possibly run.

> In the big races, skill #1 is virtually worthless
> and I suspect some trainers are more vulnerable to
> pressures for the big race - which reduces the
> value of #2.

Lets give credit where credit is due. Pletcher was mediocre before Mr. Allday came along. Tracks move some horses up. What moves Pletcher up is Mr. Allday, Eclipse Award Winning Vet. The time has come.

CtC

[fkach]

CTC,

All I am saying is that if some average bloke was spotting Pletcher\'s horses and making the determination about whether or not to run based on how the horse was acting, I\'d bet anything that TP\'s win percentage would only be in the mid teens and a lot of these conversations would go away.

I consider that a seperate issue from whether he or his vet are cheating.