Negative numbers as a young 3 year old

[basket777]

could you please give us the stat that you had last year about 3 year old horses running a negitive number. i think it was something 35 out of 37 horses have bounced.. has this stat changed?


thanks

[SoCalMan2]

How does one handle Street Sense in that context?

[tucker]

it is in the archives if you search.  Titled 3yo neg top study.  Final stats are;

3yos that have run -1 or better before July 2000-2006

top -  0   or 0%

pair - 3  or 9.7%

off - 8   or 25.8%

x -   20  or  64.5%

total horses 31

[Silver Charm]

The Study was good, but like all tried and true rules on how to handicap the Derby their usefulness can become diminished as exceptions occur.

Over the years we have had to deal with Dosage, Dual Qualifiers, Experimental Free Weights, Geldings, No Races at Two and other myths that actually provided people some winners or at the very least some toss-outs. Me included.

The Negative number angle is a good one. However there has been considerable discussion here over the last week that Street Sense while receiving a Negative 2 on BC Day may have been the beneficiary of a rail bias. So the question becomes when is a Negative 2 not really a Negative 2, doesn\'t it.

Circular Quay by all accounts received a very low number in the La. Derby (I have not downloaded the Special, most likely will tonight). So the question becomes how many in the Study subsequent to their large effort took an extended eight week vacation. The answer is probably none.

Assuming Curlin went Negative in the Ark Derby he is now bucking a couple of trends. The Neg number, three weeks rest and no two year old foundation. So the question becomes is Curlin talented enough and fast enough to win the Ky Derby? The answer is yes.

When assessing the chances of the above three a handicapper should hope to receive a discount in pari-mutual odds for the exceptions he is being asked to overlook. The answer here is he will not.

Other than Circular Quay the other two will be fairly well bet. So is Circular Quay the one to bet. The answer is yes.

As long as you are comfortable wagering on a horse who must thread his way thru a twenty horse field, lose as little ground as possible, not get checked, in a race that may or may not have any pace, at odds of around 10-1.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I think this group is the slowest we\'ve had in a few years.

NC Tony

[TGJB]

The study in question applied to the next start after the big effort. It diesn\'t apply to SS at this point.

[Silver Charm]

Is this because contrary to what I just said about there probably not being any three year olds in the Study who laid off eight weeks after the Negative.

He actually did in the transition from two years old to three years old.

Which raises another question,

\"How many of those in the Study ran their Negative in November as two year olds?\"

[Silver Charm]

TGJB,

Please add Flying First Class and King of the Roxy to the study.

This would be two additional outcomes.

[basket777]

Can you let us know what there number was the date and what they regressed to?

thanks

[fkach]

Here is a link to the study.

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/file.php?1,file=28

[slewzapper]

Bernardini paired, Barbaro...a bad step, or the ultimate bounce?

[easygoer89]

Where exactly did you find this study?  As I am having no luck finding it on the archives page.

[tucker]

It\'s not on the archive page, but in the TG forum search/archive, the whole thread starts with;

3 YO NEG Top Study (627 Views)
Posted by: NoCarolinaTony (IP Logged)
Date: May 17, 2006 11:50PM

...hope that helps