Racing and Wagering on Polytrack

[Silver Charm]

Anybody else out like me that thinks racing and wagering on Polytrack is similar to NBA games.

Everything gets decided in the last 10 seconds........

[BitPlayer]

Beyer appears to agree, at least as far as Keeneland is concerned.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/15/AR2007041501043.html

[marcus]

I\'m following the NHL play-offs , but know what you mean ...  Dominican ( as an early season 3 yo ) should have bounced off the pair but didn\'t - not the biggest deal . imo - the BG result ( for most the field incl top 3 )  would have been the same - even if it had been run on dirt ...

[imallin]

I disagree with Beyer.

The reason that speed has been so great on traditional dirt tracks over the years is because of kickback. Who wants to handicap races trying to figure out which horses will get dirt in their faces and which ones will not? Thats not handicapping. Thats not handicapping the relative talents of the horses. Its handicapping the ability of each individual horse\'s mental makeup to be able to handle \'spray\' in their face.

The reason Beyer is wrong is that he\'s not necessarily complaining about Polytrack, he\'s complaining about change. If things were reversed and polytrack is all we knew for 100 years and all of a sudden, Keeneland went to a dirt surface, Beyer would yell and scream about speed winning all the time. He\'s be mad that whoever got the lead would win. He\'d say, \"thats not handicapping\"

Change is good. Great horseplayers adjust to change and the ones who can\'t, perish.

Handicapping is all about making adjustments on the fly. Its a great game of chess. The more \'unpredictable\' the races are, the better chance we as horseplayers have to beat this game.

If everyone knows the winners, and the game gets easy, everyone will know the results in advance and no one will be able to make big money.

Throw a monkey wrench into it, i\'m all for it.

As far as this BG result not being a valid handicapping factor for next Month\'s Derby, i believe there IS a way to use polytrack results to predict traditional dirt results. What that way is we might not know, but its there for the taking, if you can figure it out.

I love the \'mystery\' of these polytrack results and the public not knowing what the heck to do from a handicapping standpoint. I love that. The more confusion, the better. Gives me a shot to break the bank if i come up with a unique theory on things that happens to work.

Kaos rules!

[richiebee]

Imallin:

     As to the kickback on dirt surfaces discouraging horses running from off
the pace, are you saying that a single horse on the lead, who leads a race from
gate to wire, creates enough kickback to discourage ALL the other horses in the
race?

     My read of Beyer\'s article was that he was not unhappy with synthetic
surfaces in general, but rather with the way the surface at Keeneland plays.
And he did point out that the handle at Keeneland has not been hurt by
Polytrack. Trainers are not afraid to run their horses on this surface, and
horseplayers have not been scared off by this new surface.

     In the end if horsemen and horseplayers are happy, it doesn\'t matter what
a curmudgeonly figure maker/columnist thinks.

[imallin]

No, but whoever is in the back of the pack is getting sprayed by all the horses in front of him. There\'s a lot more kickback than you think, because you can\'t see it that well. That lead horse kicks back more dirt than you can imagine. A 1200lb animal\'s foot sinking into the sand and then \'exploding\' out of there a 40 mph creates sand thats traveling at a high rate of speed flying backward.

not to say that the polytrack has NO kickback, but its less than normal. Thats why closers win on the turf more than the dirt, turf runners can close because they\'re not getting showered in debris.

[davidrex]

Marcus...stick to Ice Hockey!
Seriously tho...do you read Left at the gate? Alan is a big fan of something called the Rangers.He\'s a hell of a writer too.Unfortuneatly he has your same handicapping theories!...its a joke!

[RICH]

Marcus

I believe there may be more than a few people who would have read the line on Dominian more postive.

[miff]

Check out the article by Haskin at bloodhorse.com and TGJB\'s similar comments.

Kentucky Derby Trail: Bye, Bye Miss American Pie



Mike

[Lost Cause]

Yep...I have to go with Chuckles on this and just gamble on Turf racing at Keeneland for the rest of the meet...It\'s too tough right now to figure it out..

[marcus]

david -  While 1st off  I\'m a Devils fan - was raised in Bruins country , so calling me a NYR fan is a low blow ... it reminds me of Junior High School Cafeteria stuff ( which line for hamburgers + fries) ...

What would have been the run order for this years BG had it been run on dirt - in your view .  Say for argument sake , if Street Sense wasn\'t going to need a couple races to get back to the big 2 yo number , wouldn\'t it be on Poly ?  imo - The BG Racing Surface as well as Outcome is very tricky to read ...

[marcus]

Rich - I understand what your saying ok - that more than a few people liked him or had positive views on his pattern - and never have Said or Implied otherwise    ... I passed the race myself .

[davidrex]

My new best friend Marcus,

Sorry I wasn\'t more specific about B.G. being run on dirt.
I was contemplating the old Keeneland track w/its speed bias.
With that said ,I think the speedball whose name starts w/a \"T\" would have wired the field.

Assuming you might have common interests with Alan was an innocent mistake.
I should have considered ones committment to a certain team.
Your bookie must love you!

One last thing before I drop my dentures in the blue water;where I come from \"Junior High\" was replaced by the term \"middle school\" a quarter century ago.

                                        Your new best friend,
                                              Davidrex

[marcus]

davidrex - thanks ! your the man ...    i should have let this sort itself out and just not said anything becouse i know my family and friends , like yourself , are only kidding around ... Alan is a native of new york city , he should be a rangers fan - i figure they got a chance if the goaltender can stand on his head .

funny , i can almost remember when it switched from \"junior\" to \"middle\"  - over  quarter century ? that went by fast . Not sure about \"T\" , but do remember when front runners off forward moving 0 X 0 type patterns would do well at the old KEE ...  

Best Wishes and Good Racing Luck ,

[fkach]

You made an excellent point about resistence to change, but I think his complaint goes beyond that. When races get reduced to 3F sprints like the BG, winning doesn\'t often say a real lot about overall ability of the horses. It sometimes only tells you who has the best acceleration for a short period of time and who mamaged to get good postion without even having to work for it.  

For example, I believe that\'s why 3YO fillies can win at 1 1/2 miles in Grade 1 races against older males on turf in Europe. Fillies CAN sprint for 3F with the best colts if all the horses gallop for the first mile or so. Typically, they can\'t finish with the best colts if all the horses are pushed every step of the way to get and keep position like in dirt routes. The fact that this theory is true is also semi-verified by the fact that fillies spint fairly well on dirt in the U.S. also (look at the BC sprint), but rarely run with the best older males going long on dirt.  

I\'m not saying there isn\'t a place for European style racing, but there is a place for racing that tests speed, stamina, racing reserves etc... too.