Blue Grass

[miff]

Fkach,

As to what you said in a round about way. In app 163 races run at Kee since poly was installed, only 3% were wires(excluding short baby races) There is a penalty for any horse with brilliant early speed at Kee and the jocks(as you said) know it.


Mike

[richiebee]

Don\'t know why all the concern over the fractions and final times in
yesterday\'s Blue Grass. As Pat Day said repeatedly, \"Time only matters if you
are in prison.\" I guess if you are interested in brilliantly fast times you will
have to go watch quarterhorses--or a 2YO in training sale.

I watched the BG yesterday without wagering. Actually a great race, a great
finish, with the top 3 all fully extended at the wire. Zanjero appeared to have
the lead for a brief instant. The top 3 showed the kind of gameness a racing fan
loves to see.

If I fancied the 2YO champ in the Derby, I saw nothing in yesterday\'s 1/2 mile
poly workout that would discourage me. He is a hard trying colt with a competent
handler and a big win (bias aided or not) at CD.

After the race, my immediate thought was that Hard Spun probably could have won
this race, on the lead, against the polyester bias. The plans for this colt seem
to change each day, but if HS tanks in the Derby, owner Porter might second
guess himself and say, \"Gee, I could have won the Blue Grass and the Preakness.\"

Poly track will prove not to be a panacea; as I have said in the past it is only
dressing for a wound caused by a lack of competent trainers, a lack of competent
track superintendents, and a gene pool which has been stretched like a rubber
band.

If you read Crist\'s editorial in DRF, nobody is really interested in
resurrecting Racing, in NY or anywhere else. Our future as racing fans is
probably in our living rooms, watching races from the 10 or 15 racetracks which
survive in the US (optimistic view) plus racing from European and Asian venues.

Ironic that in 15 years, 2 old time racing fans will be playing VLTs at a
facility which used to host live Racing, saying that the spread of synthetic
surfaces killed Racing. This will not be the case of course. Poly just happened
to come along at a time when the Greeders, the Cheaters and the corrupt and
apathetic politicians had already begun to lower the coffin into the grave.

Bottom line-- no cogent future planning for Racing = no Racing in the future.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Those vouching for a turf effect could certainly be right. I conducted a three month experiment with Poly and did not like the results and haven\'t bet upon it for a year. Figuring that Hard Spun was a standout I bet him on it and the race was very formful.

I took a shot at the Bluegrass knowing full well Street Sense was not going to be fully cranked. Wagered a couple of small trifectas and lost, but thats not the root of my disgust. The surface itself is capricious. Absolutely fickle.

If you think the fractions of the sprint were pedestrian that is completely in keeping with my belief that the backside was a far different track from the home stretch. Additionally, its my belief that the backside went to powder the last two races and nothing will dissuade me with the exception of Jerry saying \"No it did not\". I don\'t think he can say that.

Having cashed on one sure thing and having lost on another sure thing, I\'m ready to dispense with Poly forever. Its just not going to be formful. If others want to bet it fine. Pick the Lexington. This ought to be interesting.

Lastly didn\'t both Great Hunter and Notional go down running on this crap?

Craps anyone?

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >23.57 46.59 1.09.57 1.21.26<
>
> 23.57 and 46.59 is obviously crawling early when
> the horses run 109.57 etc... after that.
>
> Based on a few of your posts, I believe you are
> confusing track speed with jockey strategy. The
> paces tend to be slow on Poly because the jockeys
> have figured out that if they run real racehorse
> time early they have no chance of winning.
>
> You can\'t look at all the paces and say \"well they
> were all slow so the track must have been playing
> slow early and fast late because of wind or the
> track being fast in some spots and slow in
> others\".
>
> While that is theoretically possible, that\'s not
> what\'s happening at KEE. It\'s obvious because it
> happens quite consistently at KEE and to a lesser
> degree on all the other Poly tracks too. The
> jockeys are riding like it\'s a European turf race
> because it\'s the best way to give their horse a
> chance of winning (especially going long).

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

Isn\'t Notional and Great Hunter trained by the infamous \"DRUG\" O\'Neill?

NCT

[Flighted Iron]

Chuckles,

  I completely disagree with you regarding Dominican\'s reason for getting
up to win.It had nothing to do with legitimate pace and everyone who thinks
so hasn\'t a clue.

[Flighted Iron]

Richie,

 I loved what you said early about speed and so on and so forth.You also told
me something when you said 3 horses extended at the wire going for it.It reminded
me that horse racing isn\'t about cashing a bet,being right or eating a bad
hot dog.It\'s a daggone athletic endeavor.It\'s about pushing ourselves as athletes
to be the best and love what we do.What I tell people who have never been to the races is forget about wagering,eat before you go,and go right down to the rail
at the 1/8 pole and just focus on horses and riders as they pass.As the old Mick
said\"It\'s a thing a beauty\".Then and only then,after the appreciation can they
decide to go wagering.

[RICH]

....and his horses, at least on the TC trail are falling apart

[SoCalMan2]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Lastly didn\'t both Great Hunter and Notional go
> down running on this crap?
>
> Craps anyone?

Is Great Hunter injured?

[miff]

Notional, Liquidity and Great Hunter all O\'Neill.Just a few weeks back, there was all this ink about a Pletcher and O\'Neill Derby. Now it looks like both are in trouble especially O\'Neill after Great Hunter did not run to his poly from and Liquidity tired badly in the SA Derby.

[bobphilo]

No more pathetic than Gr 1 horses staggering home the final quarter in 26 plus in same dirt races.

Bob

[richiebee]

Miff:

Alot of trainers wish they were in the \"trouble\" Pletcher is in, with Circular
Quay,Any Given Saturday,Scat Daddy and Cowtown Cat headed into the Derby. In
addition, 5 of the 23 fillies in the pool for the Ky Oaks future wager are from
team TAP.

Still in all a great betting race, projecting the lightly raced Curlin as a 4/1
favorite, with many horses who have a legitimate shot in at odds between 6/1 -
20/1.

Will be interested to see if Michael D and NC Tony stick with Blue Grass winner
Dominican as he returns to the dirt. He has certainly taken to synthetic, but
it also must be remembered that he was gelded before his victory in the Rushaway
and that may be as significant a factor as the surface switch.Dominican will be
seeking his first dirt win in the Derby by Yums!, and whether you love Poly,
hate Poly or are on the fence, you have to admit that the synthetic prep races
only add to the intrigue (and difficulty) of picking a Derby winner.

[miff]

Bee,

You would be surprised at the lack of joy Pletcher-ville.The top two prospects,CQ and AGS have time off and tired issues to deal with.Cowtown(not that fast but improving) is a pleasant surprise but will be in deeper than ever before on Derby Day.Looks like SC is now their best shot and he was third on the depth chart in Feb.

Two months ago there was talk of 7 TAP entrants with a shot, I think he now has 1.


Mike

[marcus]

nice call on that Blue Grass . though - i personally seriously doubt whether in this case , the surface was the Big Determing factor .

obviously , traction problems etc on poly have been part of the game and i did not see the race but it\'s beginning to sound like the racing surface is being attributed as a major factor in determining the result .    


maybe SS will take a couple to get back ( to his old top - or run a new top )  , sometimes they do -  the good or better pattern ones seem to ( and i\'m not refering horses off long lay offs or those  like that zito horse in the Bel Stks recently ) ... but SS will probably be too short as a win bet in the Derby anyway ...