Blue Grass

[NoCarolinaTony]

Polytrack is forcing the jockeys to think again and become better jocks vs the gun and hang on group.................

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael ...I was there, there was no serious wind to be an issue. In fact I was sitting with a prominent trainer and there was no discussion about wind....I was in the saddling ring for the race before, and that horse (Silent Name) won wire to wire for the most part.

The BG had only 1 early pace horse and had the best or second best jockey who knows how to rate a horse on him instead of the other BOZO\'s before him. Prado did everything he could to win the race nd he almost pulled it off.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Mike

I think you non poly guys better get with it soon.

NC Tony

[Michael D.]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
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> Michael ...I was there, there was no serious wind
> to be an issue. In fact I was sitting with a
> prominent trainer.....I was in the saddeling ring
> for the race before, and that horse won wire to
> wire for the most part.
>
> The BG had only 1 early pace horse and had the
> best or second best jockey who knows how to rate a
> orse on him instead of the other BOZO\'s before
> him. Prado did everything he could to win the race
> nd he almost pulled it off.
>
> NC Tony


Tony, thanks a lot for the info ...

Prado did a great job on a rather weak colt, but Raf was best today. I\'m beginning to think he\'s top three. Hope you nailed the winner, I know you liked him.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Michael D

I had him Large and the exacta Larger!!!!!!

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Obviously Curlin is going to be a tough horse to deal with. At least he ran on real ground and we know his effort was legit. It looked fast too.

To my eye Street Sense ran the same Poly race at Keeneland he ran last time. Losing should enable him to be a square price if you like him.

Caradoc Wrote:
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> I very much doubt a box will be necessary.  Give
> or take, the winner pairs his top, SS continues
> his decline from the huge 2yo effort, Zanjero goes
> back a couple of points or so, and Teuflesberg
> pairs the figure he has now run 4x in a row.
>
> By the way, there\'s all this talk here about what
> by any measure is a slow race.  Were any of you
> guys watching the Arkansas Derby?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The circumstances just don\'t add up to a slow race. They also dont add up to a lethargic pace. The strange surface clearly played a role, but the winner closed into the pace and the place horse too. There were four horses on the line, they weren\'t all there because the pace was lethargic.

Most of the day off the pace horses faired well, unless they were odds on speed types. Very wide from far back was not a bad place to be either.

Come next race, the horses that ran on the pace are going to be decent bets and Teuflesberg ran significantly better than a 4 or 5.

All in all, there were some decent horses in the Bluegrass, but Miff is probably right. Put a line through the race it was a very strange result.

The next one is getting more and more interesting.

Caradoc Wrote:
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> I very much doubt a box will be necessary.  Give
> or take, the winner pairs his top, SS continues
> his decline from the huge 2yo effort, Zanjero goes
> back a couple of points or so, and Teuflesberg
> pairs the figure he has now run 4x in a row.
>
> By the way, there\'s all this talk here about what
> by any measure is a slow race.  Were any of you
> guys watching the Arkansas Derby?

[Caradoc]

CTC: If you think that Teuflesberg ran \"significantly better\" than a 4 or a 5 (let\'s say at least 2 points better), then you must think that a) the winner went forward at least 2 points, b) SS ran no worse than a zero, and perhaps paired his negative 2, c) Zanjero and Great Hunter no worse than paired their tops, and perhaps also ran new tops, and d) -- and here\'s the kicker -- Time Squared, who has one of the worst-looking lines of any horse to run the Blue Grass in recent history, went forward at least 4 points.  Doesn\'t all that seem statistically improbable to you?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Caro,

I\'m aware of your critique. You\'re saying that many horses can\'t improve to a 3 or thereabouts. I am approaching this race the way Beyer does. On that surface at that track I don\'t think there was any negative to being wide from off the pace. Fully believing in factoring wide, there was a minimal wide factor at Keeneland on Bluegrass Day. You don\'t have to be a statistician to see that.

Lets Extrapolate:

Starting with the winner. A horse with a forging pattern coming off his first top matching race as a three year old. This horse benefitted from off the pace and he in all likelihood moved forward off the forge. He did win. I give him credit for a 2.5 or thereabouts.

Street Sense. To my eye he did not relish Poly the first time he saw it and he did not relish it yesterday. He was closer to the pace and ducking in about three times finished gamely. He was not his best and his finishes with a number like the winner in my book.

Zanjero. He was compromised by being inside in the lane in my opinion, but he did benefit from earlier lane placement. He was on a forge too if you score him on a 2.5 that forge ends, but the early wide helped him. {Later, he wasn\'t wide, but he did get near the rail late and he galloped out poorly from down in there.)

Teuflesberg....He gets a 3, but it was the best 3 ever awarded by a TFig counterfeiter. And on that track he may have run the best race. There was no theft on pace. Look at the last race on the card. The track became talcum powder. The race prior to the Bluegrass was so swift, (If properly timed), they may have not watered. Love to hear from Tgraph when the Beer truck made its rounds. I don\'t think hes a Derby Horse, but this is not a bad animal. He\'ll beat all of these but Street Sense next start, but that start should not be Churchill.

Great Hunter....Score him a 3 to a 3.5 or so.

Times Squared...that would bring him in at about a 4 or so. This is a million dollar horse that clearly had not run yet. If he returned to his top of an 8 that means the winners got home in about 6.5





Caradoc Wrote:
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> CTC: If you think that Teuflesberg ran
> \"significantly better\" than a 4 or a 5 (let\'s say
> at least 2 points better), then you must think
> that a) the winner went forward at least 2 points,
> b) SS ran no worse than a zero, and perhaps paired
> his negative 2, c) Zanjero and Great Hunter no
> worse than paired their tops, and perhaps also ran
> new tops, and d) -- and here\'s the kicker -- Time
> Squared, who has one of the worst-looking lines of
> any horse to run the Blue Grass in recent history,
> went forward at least 4 points.  Doesn\'t all that
> seem statistically improbable to you?

[miff]

Yeah Tony,

1.16 in graded races that\'s real racing!! It\'s pathetic.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Miff, it was clearly faster than that. Did you see the way Teuflesberg was striding out?....He galloped out with them too. Dominican galloped out slightly better, but I\'m of the opinion he will be hard pressed to look as good next time.

The number of horses that don\'t fit the profile is large. Many coming in on monumental layoffs. Others without either race or distance seasoning or both. The 2YO champ coming in having apparently stubbed his toe. Pletcher coming in with half the field. I\'m assumming he\'ll run Deadly Dealer if the earnings are there. (They may not be).

Barry now has the Prohibitive Favorite in King of the Roxy. All he needs now is the Moxy.

miff Wrote:
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> Yeah Tony,
>
> 1.16 in graded races that\'s real racing!! It\'s
> pathetic.
>
>
> Mike

[miff]

Chuck,

All they\'ve accomplished with Poly-quack is to give horses that like running on top of grass another surface.Don\'t what you mean by \"clearly faster than that\" 1.16.3 is 1.16.3. I see horse work faster than that every day.


Mike

[Bally Ache]

The Blue Grass makes crystal clear what has already been apparent.  Polytrack racing is virtually turf racing by another name.  This country does not need more turf racing.

Keeneland has simply reversed the bias.  Is a closers bias any better than a speed bias?

And above all, polytrack is no friend of the horseplayer.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ll agree to defer to Tgraph if they wish to post an opinion. The track was very quirky. It was slow, extremely fast, extremely slow. I don\'t think any routing speed horse could have cracked 1.15 by the Bluegrass.

I do agree Poly is a horse \"equalizer\" it takes horses of vastly different ability and almost levels the playing field. I\'ve noticed Pletcher with his speed appears to be avoiding it.

Remember the Lane\'s End winner last year?  

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> All they\'ve accomplished with Poly-quack is to
> give horses that like running on top of grass
> another surface.Don\'t what you mean by \"clearly
> faster than that\" 1.16.3 is 1.16.3. I see horse
> work faster than that every day.
>
>
> Mike

[miff]

Chuck,

Common sense, just look where the very slow early Zanjero was laying the entire race. That alone tells you the pace was pedestrian.How the fig will be scored is another issue.

Mike